Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre has warned that an AI-powered ransomware attack on UK critical national infrastructure is “highly likely” by 2028. The warning was published on November 3 as part of the agency’s annual review and a separate assessment of how AI could change cyber threats over the next two years.
NCSC chief Richard Horne said criminals and states including China and Russia are likely to use AI more extensively in cyber operations. He said this could include AI-powered malware used in ransomware attacks.
The warning matters because critical infrastructure includes systems people rely on every day, such as energy networks, hospitals, transport, water supplies, and communications. A successful attack could disrupt services, expose sensitive data, or create safety risks.
AI can make attacks faster and more scalable. It can help attackers analyze networks, identify weaknesses, write phishing messages, adapt malware, and automate parts of an intrusion. That could reduce the technical skill required to launch a serious attack.
The NCSC is also exploring how AI can help defenders. Its Project DROMOS began earlier this year with a four-week pilot analyzing government code repositories before expanding into selected operational environments.
For organizations, the practical response should include rapid patching, strong access controls, network segmentation, offline backups, and tested incident-response plans. Companies operating critical systems should also identify which assets are most exposed and prioritize them for monitoring.
For individuals, basic protections remain important: unique passwords, multi-factor authentication, software updates, and caution with unexpected messages or links.
The warning suggests that AI is no longer only a productivity tool. It is becoming a major factor in national-security planning, and organizations responsible for essential services may need to prepare for more automated and sophisticated attacks.