The Japanese government is closely watching the outcome of the US midterm elections held on November 3. President Donald Trump’s Republican Party faced a difficult contest, raising concerns that electoral losses could weaken his administration and prompt him to turn to diplomacy in pursuit of a lasting legacy. 

Tokyo cannot rule out the possibility that Trump could seek closer ties with China and Russia, leaving Japan vulnerable to his unpredictable foreign policy.

Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi avoided commenting on the election at a press conference on November 2, but said the government was “following developments with interest.”

Takaichi’s Rapport With Trump

While other US allies, including European countries, have struggled to navigate their relationships with President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has cultivated a relatively close relationship with him. The two maintained contact through an in-person meeting and a phone call around the time of the US-China summit in September.

“The two leaders have good chemistry,” a diplomatic source said.

Fears of Being Sidelined

Still, Trump’s approach to foreign policy following the midterms remains difficult to predict. 

If he faces political setbacks at home, he may turn to diplomacy to secure his legacy. Tokyo’s greatest concern is that he could pursue closer ties with China and Russia without consulting Japan.

Speculation has also emerged about a possible summit involving the leaders of the United States, China, and Russia on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit (APEC), scheduled for November 18–19 in China. 

With Japan’s relations with both Beijing and Moscow strained, any significant warming of US ties with the two countries would be “unwelcome,” according to a senior Foreign Ministry official.

Pressure to Increase Defense Spending

Trump’s “America First” agenda could also gain momentum, bringing increased pressure on US allies over defense spending and other security commitments. His administration has called on allies to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Japan, however, is seeking to avoid setting an explicit 3.5% target for fiscal 2027–2031 in its planned year-end revision of three key national security documents, including the National Security Strategy. The move reflects Japan’s fiscal constraints, but whether Washington will accept this approach remains uncertain.

Lingering Sources of Tension

The International Criminal Court, which has been targeted by US sanctions, remains another source of friction between Tokyo and Washington. Regardless of the midterm election results, Japan is likely to continue facing uncertainty over Trump’s policies.

“China and Russia would benefit if Japan-US relations deteriorated,” a Japanese government official said, underscoring Tokyo’s determination to strengthen ties with Washington.

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Shingo Nagahara, The Sankei Shimbun

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