Far right Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson has announced that his party will unconditionally ‘tolerate’ Ulf Kristersson as prime minister, dropping its demand for both ministerial positions and policy commitments. What does this mean for the process of forming Sweden’s next government?
What did Åkesson say?
Åkesson promised to ‘tolerate’ Ulf Kristersson when the parliament votes on his candidacy for prime minister, meaning Sweden Democrat MPs will all abstain, which in Sweden’s system of negative parliamentarianism is as good as a vote in favour.
His party is not only dropping its demand for ministers, but all demands. He says support is totally unconditional and that he does not require his party to be involved in negotiations over the policy programme for the next government.
However, he is also making no further commitments beyond allowing Kristersson to take power, saying his party will then go into opposition, reserving the right to vote against all future legislation, including government budgets.
The far right party, he said would be in opposition to the government it had allowed to take office.
“You’re on your own, so to speak,” he said.
What does this mean for Sweden’s government formation process?
It’s potentially a game changer.
The Centre Party has long said it will not support a government that either includes Sweden Democrat ministers or one which is dependent on Sweden Democrat support.
With the current announcement, the dependence on Sweden Democrat support would arguably end as soon as Kristersson was voted into place.
If the Centre Party switches sides, the resulting minority coalition will be able to pass legislation or a budget with the support of any of the opposition parties. This might mean relying on the votes of the Sweden Democrats, but it could also mean winning the support of the Social Democrats, Green Party, or even the Left Party.
“Unlike the previous parliamentary term, we are not bound by any agreements whatsoever, no prior arrangements at all. But we are naturally open to negotiating with the government whenever we judge it advantageous to do so,” Åkesson explained. “If a four-party bourgeois government is formed in the Riksdag, the Sweden Democrats will consequently become a powerful kingmaker in Sweden’s Riksdag.”
What happens next?
It depends on the Centre Party, the Left Party, and to a lesser extent on the Moderate Party and Social Democrats.
Senior figures in the Centre Party, such as financial spokesperson Martin Ådahl, might oppose even this low level of dependence on the Sweden Democrats. It’s not certain that even this will be enough.
According to the Expressen newspaper, the announcement has been greeted like a “bombshell” inside the party, and the party’s youth wing known as CUF, has already suggested that the party start negotiations to the right.
“CUF’s line is crystal clear. Sweden needs a government in a difficult geopolitical and economic situation, especially when the world is in the middle of a climate crisis. Alliance 2.0 can absolutely be a way forward, just like a red-green government with the Centre Party, Green Party and Social Democrats that is tolerated by the Left Party. Now it is important to offer the Center Party the most for humanity, democracy, jobs and the climate,” CUF chair Emelie Rossheim, told Expressen.
If the Left Party stands firm on its demand for ministerial positions, it is very possible, even likely, that the Centre Party will begin formal talks with Ulf Kristersson about forming a minority right-wing coalition, either supported by or more likely including the Centre Party.
It remains to be seen whether anything will be in place before November 10th, when Ulf Kristersson is due to report to the parliament’s Speaker on whether he has been successful in negotiating the support of enough parties for him to be tolerated by parliament as prime minister.
If it is, Kristersson could be voted into place and Sweden could have a new government by the end of next week.
If the Left Party reacts by dropping its own demand for ministerial positions (or perhaps copying the Sweden Democrats and agreeing to tolerate Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson as PM and then going into opposition), itmight still have a chance of keeping the Centre Party’s support for her as prime minister.
If the Centre Party is willing to back a Kristersson government tolerated by the Sweden Democrats, then there is likely to be a bidding war between the two sides, with each competing to offer the Centre Party a more attractive package of policy reforms and ministerial seats in return for their support.
What would the resulting right-wing government be like?
If the Centre Party negotiates effectively, the resulting government is likely to push through some liberalising reforms to migration law, have a more effective climate policy than the Tidö government, and also seek to cut taxes. It could even more closely resemble the centrist Alliance governments of Frederik Reinfeldt.
The Sweden Democrats will, however, be in a position to block any liberalising measures unless the Social Democrats are willing to step in and support the government.
The Centre Party has made scrapping the salary threshold for work permits a priority, but as both the Sweden Democrats and the Social Democrats are in favour of limits to labour migration, it is not certain that it could get this through.
The Centre Party might want a tax reform that makes petrol and diesel more expensive but electricity cheaper, but, again, it’s unclear whether either the Sweden Democrats or the Social Democrats would want to be seen to vote for increasing prices at the pump.