The Bab el-Mandab Strait has emerged as a maritime corridor of growing strategic importance. While geopolitical attention historically concentrated on the northern Red Sea, international engagement has increasingly extended towards its southern gateway. This shift reflects several interconnected developments, including Yemen’s prolonged political and security challenges, the emergence of non-state maritime threats, expanding engagement by global and regional powers, and political and security developments across the Horn of Africa.
The expansion of foreign military facilities, persistent domestic challenges, interstate differences and evolving international partnerships are among the key geopolitical trends shaping the region. Together, these developments have significant implications for regional security, national decision-making and efforts towards regional integration. Consequently, the Bab el-Mandab Strait has become an increasingly complex security environment in which global and regional powers play important roles in shaping maritime security and broader geopolitical developments. These dynamics underscore the importance of strengthening regional ownership, preserving the decision-making autonomy of littoral states and promoting cooperative approaches to shared security and development priorities.
Background
Since the opening of the Suez Canal, geopolitical engagement in the Red Sea region has historically concentrated on its northern section. Recent geopolitical developments, however, have increasingly drawn international attention towards its southern gateway, the Bab el-Mandab Strait. Several factors have contributed to this growing interest, including adjustments in the United States’ regional security posture, the Arab Spring, Yemen’s prolonged internal conflict, and the emergence of non-state actors targeting international shipping. Gulf countries’ renewed engagement with the region, partly driven by economic diversification strategies and broader connectivity ambitions, has also contributed to the increasing strategic importance of the Southern Red Sea.
As a result, the Bab el-Mandab Strait has become a significant area of international security concern and expanding maritime and military engagement. The following developments illustrate some of the principal geopolitical trends shaping the region and their implications for regional stability.
1. Expansion of Foreign Military Facilities and Security Engagement
The emergence of maritime threats from non-state actors, including the Houthis, has contributed to increased security engagement and military deployments along the Southern Red Sea by global and regional powers. France has maintained a military presence in Djibouti since 1977. The United States established Camp Lemonnier in 2002, following the September 11 terrorist attacks, while Japan established its facility in 2011, Italy in 2013 and China in 2017. Germany and Spain have also maintained military personnel in the region through arrangements involving France’s military presence, while the United Kingdom has operated through facilities associated with the United States’ military presence.
Regional powers have likewise expanded their security and strategic engagement across the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region. In addition to previous military arrangements in Assab and Socotra, the United Arab Emirates has maintained strategic engagements involving facilities in Bosaso and Berbera. Saudi Arabia has developed security partnerships and military arrangements in Djibouti and Yemen, while Türkiye maintains a military training and cooperation presence in Mogadishu. Israel’s strategic interest in the region, including reported engagement involving Berbera, has also attracted growing attention, particularly following its recognition of Somaliland.
These developments reflect the increasing strategic importance of the Southern Red Sea and the wider maritime environment. At the same time, the concentration of military facilities and security partnerships around critical maritime routes highlights the importance of transparency, coordination and constructive engagement among host countries and international partners. Recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz also illustrate how developments around strategic maritime chokepoints can have wider implications for international trade, energy security and regional stability.
2. Persistent Regional Political and Security Challenges
The Bab el-Mandab region continues to experience significant political and security challenges, with several countries managing internal conflicts, institutional pressures and complex governance processes. Sudan remains affected by an ongoing armed conflict, with efforts towards a negotiated political settlement facing considerable challenges. The involvement and interests of external actors have added further complexity to the conflict environment, underscoring the importance of coordinated diplomatic engagement and sustained support for peaceful resolution.
Somalia continues to address security challenges associated with Al-Shabaab, alongside the broader task of strengthening federal institutions and consolidating national stability. The relationship between federal and regional authorities, questions of administrative arrangements and the status of Somaliland remain important elements of the country’s political and constitutional discussions. More recently, reports of renewed piracy along parts of the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean coasts have raised additional concerns about maritime security. Such developments could create further complications for international commercial shipping, particularly if disruptions affect major maritime routes through the Bab el-Mandab Strait or the Suez Canal.
Ethiopia is also addressing internal security and stability challenges as it pursues its broader national development and regional connectivity objectives. Djibouti, meanwhile, continues to play an important role in regional maritime security and international logistics, while hosting a significant concentration of foreign military facilities and security partnerships. Eritrea’s regional engagement, migration patterns and broader political and socioeconomic developments also form part of the wider geopolitical context. Yemen, for its part, continues to face the consequences of prolonged political instability and institutional fragmentation, with implications for maritime security and the wider Southern Red Sea environment.
Taken together, these developments demonstrate the interconnected nature of domestic political and security challenges across the region. They also reinforce the importance of coordinated regional diplomacy, institutional capacity-building and constructive international engagement in addressing shared concerns.
3. Persistence of Interstate Differences and Regional Disagreements
The region faces several longstanding differences among states, relating to borders, shared resources and maritime access, which are best addressed through established bilateral and regional mechanisms. Where such questions remain open, they can complicate efforts to develop coordinated regional approaches to external engagement and shared security priorities. Dialogue, consultation and mutually beneficial arrangements remain the most reliable means of building regional confidence and cooperation.
Questions concerning the equitable and sustainable utilisation of shared resources, particularly the Nile waters, as well as maritime connectivity and access to the sea, carry significant strategic importance for the countries concerned. Each is best approached on the basis of international law, mutual respect and shared benefit, so that cooperation expands the interests of all parties rather than narrowing them.
A related consideration is the need to strengthen the participation and collective capacity of regional states in shaping the security and governance arrangements of the Bab el-Mandab and the wider Red Sea. Ethiopia’s geographical position, population, economic potential, diplomatic engagement and longstanding contribution to regional and continental affairs give it important stakes in developments affecting this maritime corridor. As a major landlocked country in the region, Ethiopia has a legitimate interest in reliable maritime connectivity and access to the sea through peaceful, negotiated and mutually beneficial arrangements, consistent with international law and respect for the sovereignty of coastal states.
Ethiopia’s regional role, including its position as the seat of the African Union and its engagement in regional peace and security initiatives, further underscores the value of its constructive participation in discussions concerning the future of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. Although Ethiopia is not a littoral state on the Bab el-Mandab Strait, its economic, demographic and strategic interests are closely connected to the security and accessibility of regional maritime routes. A cooperative regional approach that recognises the legitimate interests of both coastal and landlocked countries would therefore contribute to a more inclusive and sustainable regional security environment.
Strategic Implications
Maritime Security Risks
The expanding presence of international security actors in a region already affected by regional volatility requires effective coordination and confidence-building measures to minimise the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation. Recent disruptions to international shipping around the Strait of Hormuz illustrate how security developments at critical maritime chokepoints can generate wider economic consequences. Similar disruptions in the Bab el-Mandab Strait would have significant implications for international trade, supply chains and regional economies.
Landlocked countries, particularly Ethiopia and South Sudan, would be especially exposed to disruptions affecting maritime access and the movement of essential imports and exports. For Ethiopia, whose international trade relies substantially on regional maritime connectivity, the uninterrupted functioning of nearby maritime corridors is an important national economic and strategic interest. Strengthening maritime security cooperation is therefore essential not only for coastal states but also for landlocked countries whose economic well-being is closely connected to secure maritime routes.
Preservation of Regional Decision-Making Autonomy
Given the varying economic and institutional capacities of countries in the region, international partnerships provide important opportunities for investment, security cooperation, infrastructure development and technical assistance. However, maintaining an appropriate balance between external partnerships and regional priorities is equally important. Excessive dependence on external support, without adequate national and regional coordination, may limit the ability of countries to independently determine their long-term security and development priorities.
The central challenge is therefore not international engagement itself, but ensuring that such engagement complements national priorities, respects the sovereignty of host countries and contributes to shared regional objectives. Strengthening institutional capacity, policy coordination and regional consultation would help countries maximise the benefits of international partnerships while preserving their decision-making autonomy.
Obstacles to Regional Integration
Regional economic and security cooperation continues to face challenges arising from unresolved interstate differences, domestic political developments and varying national priorities. These circumstances can limit the development of coordinated regional approaches and make it more difficult for countries to address shared challenges collectively.
Strengthening regional integration is particularly important for addressing cross-border security concerns, improving trade and transport connectivity, and enhancing the region’s capacity to engage international partners on the basis of shared priorities. Such efforts would also advance the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the principle of African-led solutions to African challenges.
The Need for a Coordinated Regional Framework for the Bab el-Mandab
The absence of a sufficiently developed and inclusive regional security framework for the Bab el-Mandab Strait and the wider Red Sea presents an important institutional challenge. This is compounded by the different political, economic and security circumstances of the countries concerned, including Yemen’s prolonged internal crisis, Djibouti’s extensive international security partnerships, Somalia’s ongoing state-building and constitutional processes, and Ethiopia’s interests in regional maritime connectivity and access to the sea.
In this context, the development of a coordinated regional framework would provide an opportunity to strengthen maritime security cooperation, improve communication among stakeholders and establish common approaches to shared challenges. Such an arrangement should recognise the legitimate interests of coastal and landlocked countries, respect national sovereignty and promote transparency and consultation in international security engagement. It would also provide a platform for regional states to contribute more actively to the development of norms and institutional arrangements concerning shared maritime priorities.
Policy Recommendations
Strengthen Regional Maritime Cooperation
The region requires stronger maritime cooperation to address evolving security threats and safeguard the uninterrupted movement of international shipping. Countries should enhance information-sharing mechanisms, strengthen maritime surveillance capabilities and explore coordinated responses to emerging threats, consistent with their national laws and international obligations. Strengthening IGAD’s engagement in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden security cooperation could provide an important institutional foundation for these efforts.
Promote Conflict Resolution and Preventive Diplomacy
Addressing internal conflicts and political instability requires sustained diplomatic engagement, inclusive political dialogue and support for negotiated settlements. Regional leaders, the African Union, IGAD and relevant international partners should continue to support peaceful political processes in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen. Preventive diplomacy, mediation and coordinated diplomatic initiatives can contribute to reducing regional volatility and creating conditions for sustainable peace.
Address Interstate Differences through Dialogue
Differences concerning borders, shared resources and maritime connectivity should be addressed through established diplomatic mechanisms, consultation and mutually beneficial arrangements. Regional leaders should prioritise constructive dialogue and respect for international law while strengthening confidence-building measures. Sustained engagement would help prevent unresolved issues from undermining broader regional cooperation and development objectives.
Develop an Inclusive Regional Security Framework
The growing strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandab and the wider Red Sea calls for a more comprehensive and inclusive regional security architecture. Such a framework should promote coordination among coastal and landlocked countries, strengthen transparency in security partnerships and provide mechanisms for consultation on shared maritime concerns. It should also encourage constructive engagement with international partners while ensuring that regional priorities and national sovereignty remain central to decision-making.
Enhance Regional Economic Integration and Connectivity
Economic integration can create shared interests and strengthen incentives for peaceful cooperation. Regional countries should prioritise the development of trade corridors, transport infrastructure, port connectivity and energy networks. Particular attention should be given to improving the economic links between coastal and landlocked countries through mutually beneficial and negotiated arrangements. Expanding regional trade and infrastructure cooperation would strengthen economic interdependence, create shared development opportunities and contribute to long-term regional stability.
Conclusion
The Southern Red Sea has emerged as an increasingly important geopolitical and security environment, shaped by expanding international military engagement, domestic political and security challenges, interstate differences and evolving strategic interests. These developments demonstrate the close connection between maritime security, regional stability and the economic interests of countries across the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region.
Without stronger regional cooperation, effective conflict management and inclusive institutional arrangements, the region may face continued difficulties in addressing shared security and development priorities. Policymakers should therefore prioritise collective diplomatic efforts, regional connectivity and constructive international partnerships that strengthen regional ownership while respecting the sovereignty and legitimate interests of all states.
For Ethiopia, the strategic importance of the Southern Red Sea is particularly significant because of its landlocked position, economic dependence on maritime connectivity and legitimate interest in peaceful and mutually beneficial access arrangements. Its geographical position, economic potential and longstanding contribution to regional affairs make constructive participation in regional maritime and security discussions an important national priority.
By Amare K. Aweke (PhD) Lead Researcher, Institute of Foreign Affairs
Disclaimer
The content disseminated by the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) – including, but not limited to, publications, public statements, events, media appearances, and digital communications – reflects the views of individual contributors and does not necessarily represent the official positions or policies of the Institute, its partners, or any affiliated governmental or non-governmental entities.
While the IFA endeavours to ensure the accuracy, integrity, and timeliness of the information presented, it makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, regarding the completeness, reliability, or suitability of such content for any purpose. The Institute expressly disclaims any liability for errors or omissions, as well as for any actions taken or decisions made based on the information provided.
The inclusion of external links, references, or third-party resources does not constitute an endorsement by the Institute. Additionally, engagement on social media platforms – including, but not limited to, likes, shares, retweets (RTs), or reposts – shall not be interpreted as an endorsement or validation of the views expressed therein.
Readers and audiences are encouraged to exercise critical judgement and seek independent verification when interpreting or relying upon any information disseminated through publications and posts on the Institute’s platforms or representatives.