TOPSHOT – Smoke plumes rise following missile strikes in Tehran on March 1, 2026. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Iran’s supreme leader and top military leaders, prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel and US bases across the Gulf.
Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images
Iranian lawmakers have issued their most explicit threat yet against European territory, warning that missiles will be aimed at countries including Italy and Germany if Washington uses their military installations in a renewed offensive against Tehran.
The warning marks a dramatic escalation that could pull NATO allies into a conflict they have spent months working to avoid — and it arrives as President Trump weighs new strikes in the wake of Tuesday’s midterm elections.
From Conditional Warning to Named Countries
What distinguishes this week’s statements from previous Iranian posturing is their specificity. Tehran has long threatened to widen the conflict if pushed far enough; now it is attaching country names to those threats.
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of parliament’s National Security Committee, went further when pressed by Euronews, arguing that European nations had “already been at war with Iran” during the previous phase of the conflict simply by allowing their bases to be used. His framing reframes European neutrality as an illusion — and positions any future base access as an act of co-belligerence that invites a direct response.
A second lawmaker, Kamran Ghazanfari, went further still, claiming Iran could retaliate against U.S. assets in Europe and potentially on American soil if Washington launched new strikes from Arab-state bases.
The Missile Arsenal Behind the Rhetoric
Iran’s threats carry more technical credibility than they did even a year ago. In March 2026, Tehran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the joint U.K.-U.S. base on Diego Garcia — roughly 4,000 kilometers from Iranian territory — demonstrating a strike range that places southeastern Europe firmly within reach.
Military analysts note that Iran’s Khorramshahr ballistic missile has a declared range of around 2,000 km, while the Emad reaches approximately 1,700 km — enough to cover Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Cyprus without further development. Western European capitals like Berlin, Paris and London would require extended-range systems, which Iran has not publicly confirmed as operational.
Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had for years maintained a stated policy limiting missile development to a 2,000-kilometer ceiling. That ceiling was exposed as secretly surpassed when Iran’s Diego Garcia launch demonstrated real-world capabilities nearly twice that figure, removing any doctrinal barrier to longer-range programs under the new leadership of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Europe Pushes Back — But Quietly
Not everyone accepts the threat at face value. British Cabinet minister Steve Reed pushed back this week, telling the BBC there is “no assessment to substantiate” the claim that Iran is currently targeting Europe, with no intelligence suggesting it is actively attempting to do so.
That measured response reflects a broader European calculation: acknowledge the theoretical risk without feeding a panic that could accelerate the very escalation it hopes to prevent. NATO has stated it is prepared to defend all member states, pointing to the four occasions earlier in 2026 when alliance air defenses intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles heading toward Turkey as evidence of its deterrence capability.
Trump, the Midterms and the Window Tehran Is Watching
The timing of Iran’s escalation is deliberate. Tehran’s most aggressive messaging this week lands as Trump — who reportedly weighed a “short, intense” military campaign before the midterms, according to Breitbart — now faces fewer political constraints on renewing strikes.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf struck a more measured tone, saying Iran had given Washington a “firm and rational response” and that “the ball is now in America’s court.” The dual-track messaging — maximum threat from lawmakers, diplomatic opening from the Speaker — reflects a regime trying to deter military action while keeping a negotiated exit available.
National Security Council Secretary Rezaei added another pressure point, stating that Washington’s response to Tehran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz had been “not convincing,” and that the U.S. would need to meet Iran’s demands in full before any easing of restrictions on the waterway.
The Strategic Logic
Iran’s goal, analysts argue, is not to bomb Rome — it is to make European governments too nervous to offer Washington basing rights. Tehran has declared that any installation used to attack Iranian territory is a legitimate target, and that threat only retains its deterrent value as long as U.S. allies believe Iran is genuinely willing to act on it.
Whether that calculation holds depends entirely on decisions being made in Washington over the coming days.
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