The Bank of England lifted its Bank Rate to 4 per cent on 5 November, the first rise since August 2023, and Savills expects another in February. Inflation reached 3.5 per cent in September and is expected to peak at 4 per cent in early 2027. Lenders have largely priced that in, so mortgage costs may not climb much further.
Don’t expect a quick reversal either. Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts, said before the Bank’s decision that most of the damage “is unlikely to unwind entirely”.
Mortgage approvals first, completions later
Completions trail approvals by four to six months, so five months of weak approvals mean transactions stay suppressed into the first half of 2027. September’s 97,940 completions, based on HM Revenue and Customs data, were 4 per cent below the 2017–19 average for the month.
Average mortgage product shelf life is down to 16 days, the lowest since 2023. Nouran Moustafa, executive financial and mortgage adviser at Roxton Wealth, said the reality on the ground is even more pressured.
“Products can go in two or three days, so they are being very generous at 16 days.” She added that the burden falls on both brokers and clients. “Every time you move applications, you have got the admin cost to do, and you have got your time cost. We can’t be getting hard credit searches on client files like it’s some sort of candy.”