>Opinion polls show a split nation. First we have the top 3 parties who are all tied around ~20%. They are the Brothers of Italy(Fdl) who are national conservatives lead by Giorgio Meloni, the social democrat “democrat party”(PD) lead by Enrico Letta and the Nationalist populist “Lega” lead by the infamous Matteo Salvini. After this we have the populist MS5 who have had a massive fall from grace(They once polled around 40%). After this are the centrist conservatives Forza Italia(FI) lead by Silvio Berlusconi.
In the 2014 elections for the European Parliament, the Northern League and Brothers of Italy together didn’t reach the 10%. Their major boost happened after the 2015 immigration crisis, when many Italians felt Italy was left alone in dealing with the migrants. Salvini first and Meloni afterwards were both riding the crisis wave with their “Italians first” making the PD looking as if it was in favour of immigration whereas it really wasn’t. The 2018 Parliamentary elections just mirrored the whole populism and nationalism frame and showed how the immigration question counted.
Now, while the spotlights are on the Poland-Belarus border, the waves of migrants don’t cease, having found another route from Turkey to Calabria, whereas the NGO’s are going on with their ferry services from North Africa to the Italian islands in the Mediterranean, including Tunisian people on board this time.
It should be noted at such a coalition would either fall within the first year or otherwise be brought to “more amenable positions” by external factors such as budget issues and economic/political considerations. Don’t forget that the first Conte cabinet was hell-bent on creating a parallel currency, only to hastily backtrack after “careful” consultations…
Salvini and Meloni also detest each other’s guts. Their two parties are very different flavours of “right”.
Meloni is a centralist and would nationalise the entirety of the Italian economy if she could get away with it. Berlusconi is a textbook neocon. Salvini is somewhere inbetween but his support for regionalism, kooky policies, constant U-turns, and general ego would put him at odds with the other two in absolutely no time.
So yes, such a coalition could happen. But whether it would last is a different story altogether.
EDIT: and the more extremes of the three don’t have any palatable candidate other than the party leaders themselves. Whatever lackey they put forward would only convince the undecided to vote en masse for the left, as evidenced by this year’s embarrassing roster of incapable hopefuls and the allergic reaction they caused to voters.
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>Opinion polls show a split nation. First we have the top 3 parties who are all tied around ~20%. They are the Brothers of Italy(Fdl) who are national conservatives lead by Giorgio Meloni, the social democrat “democrat party”(PD) lead by Enrico Letta and the Nationalist populist “Lega” lead by the infamous Matteo Salvini. After this we have the populist MS5 who have had a massive fall from grace(They once polled around 40%). After this are the centrist conservatives Forza Italia(FI) lead by Silvio Berlusconi.
In the 2014 elections for the European Parliament, the Northern League and Brothers of Italy together didn’t reach the 10%. Their major boost happened after the 2015 immigration crisis, when many Italians felt Italy was left alone in dealing with the migrants. Salvini first and Meloni afterwards were both riding the crisis wave with their “Italians first” making the PD looking as if it was in favour of immigration whereas it really wasn’t. The 2018 Parliamentary elections just mirrored the whole populism and nationalism frame and showed how the immigration question counted.
Now, while the spotlights are on the Poland-Belarus border, the waves of migrants don’t cease, having found another route from Turkey to Calabria, whereas the NGO’s are going on with their ferry services from North Africa to the Italian islands in the Mediterranean, including Tunisian people on board this time.
It should be noted at such a coalition would either fall within the first year or otherwise be brought to “more amenable positions” by external factors such as budget issues and economic/political considerations. Don’t forget that the first Conte cabinet was hell-bent on creating a parallel currency, only to hastily backtrack after “careful” consultations…
Salvini and Meloni also detest each other’s guts. Their two parties are very different flavours of “right”.
Meloni is a centralist and would nationalise the entirety of the Italian economy if she could get away with it. Berlusconi is a textbook neocon. Salvini is somewhere inbetween but his support for regionalism, kooky policies, constant U-turns, and general ego would put him at odds with the other two in absolutely no time.
So yes, such a coalition could happen. But whether it would last is a different story altogether.
EDIT: and the more extremes of the three don’t have any palatable candidate other than the party leaders themselves. Whatever lackey they put forward would only convince the undecided to vote en masse for the left, as evidenced by this year’s embarrassing roster of incapable hopefuls and the allergic reaction they caused to voters.
Replace UK Troika of EU