UN has recently revised its population projections for 2050 and 2100
it sees the world population peaking in 2086 at 10.4 bilion, **500 milion lower that previously estimated**
reasons for it are many,but mostly its due to fertility rates falling faster than expected in Europe,China,India,Japan,South-East Asia,Sub-saharan Africa etc.
* China is now projected to have in 2100 roughly **100 milion people fewer than previously** expected
* India fertility rate has now fallen below replacement rate in 2021,**a few years earlier than expected**
* Thailand population is **already shrinking,** almost a decade earlier than expected
* Brazil fertility rate has fallen to 1.53 children per woman [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Brazil#Total_fertility_rate_from_1940_to_1990](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Brazil#Total_fertility_rate_from_1940_to_1990)
* Latin America is now almost **entirely below replacement rate**
* Egypt fertility rate has now fallen to 2.63 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Vital_statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Vital_statistics)
China very drastic.
Don’t know if these models are very reliable. Population growth depends on a ton of volatile factors.
The difference between Russia and USA is remarkable. One so good at attracting immigrants and one so shitty at it. Marketing and propaganda shows a clear winner.
(USA 151 million by 1950 and now 332 million. Russia 103 million by 1950 and now 144 million).
The one child policy has been an absolute disaster in China. It’s much easier for a country to reduce then increase its fertility so Chinas demographic future is probably grim.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this would mean that by 2100 China would be 600 million people short for their established economy. They would either need few houndred million immigrants otherwise they will collapse.
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source:[https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022](https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022)
UN has recently revised its population projections for 2050 and 2100
it sees the world population peaking in 2086 at 10.4 bilion, **500 milion lower that previously estimated**
reasons for it are many,but mostly its due to fertility rates falling faster than expected in Europe,China,India,Japan,South-East Asia,Sub-saharan Africa etc.
* China is now projected to have in 2100 roughly **100 milion people fewer than previously** expected
* India fertility rate has now fallen below replacement rate in 2021,**a few years earlier than expected**
* Thailand population is **already shrinking,** almost a decade earlier than expected
* Brazil fertility rate has fallen to 1.53 children per woman [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Brazil#Total_fertility_rate_from_1940_to_1990](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Brazil#Total_fertility_rate_from_1940_to_1990)
* Latin America is now almost **entirely below replacement rate**
* Egypt fertility rate has now fallen to 2.63 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Vital_statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt#Vital_statistics)
China very drastic.
Don’t know if these models are very reliable. Population growth depends on a ton of volatile factors.
The difference between Russia and USA is remarkable. One so good at attracting immigrants and one so shitty at it. Marketing and propaganda shows a clear winner.
(USA 151 million by 1950 and now 332 million. Russia 103 million by 1950 and now 144 million).
The one child policy has been an absolute disaster in China. It’s much easier for a country to reduce then increase its fertility so Chinas demographic future is probably grim.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this would mean that by 2100 China would be 600 million people short for their established economy. They would either need few houndred million immigrants otherwise they will collapse.
China is in deep deep trouble.