Don’t fear Italexit. It won’t happen [Rome’s next government has plenty of challenges. Leaving the euro isn’t one of them]

10 comments

  1. 1

    There’s a lot of things to worry about in the wake of another government collapse in Rome — but, please, let’s expunge Italexit from the list for good.

    The concept is a familiar one for investors: At a moment of political stress, Italy could crash out of the euro and return to the old lira as a result of bad government decisions, be it by design or accident. If Italexit were to manifest — or even approach reality — it would trigger an unprecedented crisis for both the single currency and the Italian economy. Except it won’t happen.

    The term is generally misunderstood and grossly exaggerated by international commentators who often ignore how the Italian political and legal systems work. Not to mention the fact that the idea itself has disappeared almost entirely from the national debate. And the business community detests it. It is clear to everyone that to benefit from European perks, you have to drop the Italexit talk and play ball.

    In fact, a lot of the concerns I often hear when debating Italy outside of Italian circles fail to incorporate the reconfiguration the country has gone through in the past two years, both at home and in Brussels. The transition to more moderate positions on Europe — and therefore Italy’s place within the European Union — began in 2019 under the second government of Giuseppe Conte, the leader of the Five Star movement, who pulled a volte-face during his time in office.

    The new approach was cemented under Mario Draghi’s government — the one that collapsed last week. In his first speech before the Senate in 2021, the former central banker made Europe a pillar of his government action as well as a key to enter his coalition, which every party except for Brothers of Italy joined. At the time, Draghi told lawmakers: “Without Italy, there is no Europe, but outside of Europe, there is even less Italy.”

  5. People said this about Brexit, and now look where Britain is… a country full of bigoted simpletons lead by scrotums.

  7. To be framed and hanged on every post about Italian politics in the next two months

    #international commentators who often ignore how the Italian political and legal systems work.

    #President Sergio Mattarella, a largely symbolic figure on paper, has shown strong political instincts during each crisis, signaling that there are limits once you get to government. Like the time he rejected a draft coalition government deemed too euroskeptic in the aftermath of the 2018 vote.

  9. We don’t fear about that.

    We fear we will have another PiS and Fidesz situation, with a far-right religious conservative government blocking progress within the EU.

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