Italy’s right-wing coalition could score a landslide victory that would allow it to change the constitution, according to a leading pollster.
An alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy, which includes Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, has a wide lead in opinion polls ahead of the September 25 general election. If other forces are divided, this might lead close to a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament, according to an analysis by Youtrend/CattaneoZanetto & Co.
This result would see the right score similarly to Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, who won a large majority in 2010. But reaching a two-third majority would be difficult for the coalition and the study’s main scenario is for a right-wing coalition falling short of the two-thirds threshold.
The early election was called after Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned last week, when three allies ditched his broad coalition. While Draghi will remain as a caretaker until a new government takes power, his departure has left investors fretting about Italy’s economic outlook and public finances.
A separate poll published by newspaper La Stampa on Tuesday reported Brothers of Italy gaining 1.5% to 23.5% of voter support after Draghi’s resignation.
Achieving a broad majority large enough to change the constitution would be unprecedented in Italy’s recent history and could have a profound impact on the country’s political system.
“Changes could affect how the president is elected, or give more power to the prime minister,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, who authored the poll.
All three leaders of the right-wing alliance have called in the past for the president to be directly elected by Italian voters, instead of by lawmakers and regional representatives as is currently the case. This would require changing the constitution.
The survey maps a recent Quorum/YouTrend poll to recently-redrawn electoral districts. It highlights up to 67 swing seats in the lower house and Senate, which could prove decisive in turning a right-wing majority at the ballot box into a landslide victory in parliament.
This is a consequence of Italy’s hybrid electoral system, which elects a third of its seats in a first-past-the-post system and the rest in colleges based on proportional representation, as well as of a recent cut in the number of lawmakers.
The right-wing bloc could get as many as 271 seats out of 400 in the lower house, and 131 out of 200 in the Senate. That’s in a scenario in which the center-left Democratic Party doesn’t ally with the populist Five Star Movement, or with groups such as Matteo Renzi’s Italy Alive. This scenario doesn’t take into account six senators appointed for life.
Orban first won a two-thirds majority in 2010 and used it to change Hungary’s constitution. Since then, and particularly since regaining a huge majority in 2018, he has clashed with the European Union and pushed forward what he called an “illiberal democracy,” in which judicial and media independence are curtailed.
Another 1,000 migrants rescued the other week while Lampedusa is 500 percent over capacity. Far-right looking to capitalize on the crisis ahead of the election.
Come on Italy – get your act together. We don’t need more right wing stupid shit going on.
We’re already doomed on something theoretical that has still to happen. A change of the Constitution, no less. [Fantastic](https://youtu.be/L8uGbtmphgk)
Going to repeat what I’ve said in the Ukraine megathread:
“But reaching a two-third majority would be difficult for the coalition and the study’s main scenario is for a right-wing coalition falling short of the two-thirds threshold.” Pretty laughable article and without a 2/3 majority a referendum would need to be called.
The title is super clickbaity and it’s pushing this Italy=Hungary angle that seems forced
Great. Why are people so fucking shortsighted and seem to drift towards autocracy and fascism again and again and again?!
I wonder how many people won’t vote in this election. Of course center and center-left parties are going to blame them if the right will win.
How will we name it… Itex, Italex, Extaly?
Trying to understand what the circumstances are in Italy at the moment causing the right to gain ground…
I have to say, this thing about crying wolf at EVERY election is getting a little embarrassing.
Since I have memory, at every election the only slogan used from the left was “vote us, or fascists will WIN!”.
Now I have to say, I don’t harbor any good thought nor respect for Salvini or Meloni, but they are no fascists. Not even Meloni, which has historically rode parties stemming from social-nationalism. Fascism, which Italians should know well, is a completely different thing. Up to now, not Meloni nor Salvini have proposed measures that radically change (emphasis on “radically”) the independence of powers, or advocate for suppression of opposition or freedom of press, or advocate for the use of violence and repression.
These articles are rubbish, the only thing they do is spreading panic.
Salvini and Meloni leading a government will not be fascism. They will undoubtably be a very bad thing for Italian economy, citizen’s civil rights progress, debt and working reforms, but in no way I can see a fall to fucking FASCISM. A bad right government cannot be called fascism, stop using terms that should be used only very few times and in very particular situations, otherwise the only result you will get is to dilute the power of the word itself, making it completely worthless.
There´re many good reasons why EU must abolish veto status as soon as possible. Orban and this calamity to come are two good reasons.
Utter BS and the usual left-wing fearmongering.
There’s no way they can get a 2/3 majority in the Parliament, not even with the broadest and most unlikely alliance.
NVM getting those numbers in an election.
Not even Christian Democrats at the peak of their power got there it’s surely not gonna happen now with FDI.
At best they’ll be in the mid-20%,needing an alliance with Lega and what’s left of Forza Italia to even hope to have a chance of building a half-stable government.
13 comments
Italy’s right-wing coalition could score a landslide victory that would allow it to change the constitution, according to a leading pollster.
An alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy, which includes Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, has a wide lead in opinion polls ahead of the September 25 general election. If other forces are divided, this might lead close to a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament, according to an analysis by Youtrend/CattaneoZanetto & Co.
This result would see the right score similarly to Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, who won a large majority in 2010. But reaching a two-third majority would be difficult for the coalition and the study’s main scenario is for a right-wing coalition falling short of the two-thirds threshold.
The early election was called after Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned last week, when three allies ditched his broad coalition. While Draghi will remain as a caretaker until a new government takes power, his departure has left investors fretting about Italy’s economic outlook and public finances.
A separate poll published by newspaper La Stampa on Tuesday reported Brothers of Italy gaining 1.5% to 23.5% of voter support after Draghi’s resignation.
Achieving a broad majority large enough to change the constitution would be unprecedented in Italy’s recent history and could have a profound impact on the country’s political system.
“Changes could affect how the president is elected, or give more power to the prime minister,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, who authored the poll.
All three leaders of the right-wing alliance have called in the past for the president to be directly elected by Italian voters, instead of by lawmakers and regional representatives as is currently the case. This would require changing the constitution.
The survey maps a recent Quorum/YouTrend poll to recently-redrawn electoral districts. It highlights up to 67 swing seats in the lower house and Senate, which could prove decisive in turning a right-wing majority at the ballot box into a landslide victory in parliament.
This is a consequence of Italy’s hybrid electoral system, which elects a third of its seats in a first-past-the-post system and the rest in colleges based on proportional representation, as well as of a recent cut in the number of lawmakers.
The right-wing bloc could get as many as 271 seats out of 400 in the lower house, and 131 out of 200 in the Senate. That’s in a scenario in which the center-left Democratic Party doesn’t ally with the populist Five Star Movement, or with groups such as Matteo Renzi’s Italy Alive. This scenario doesn’t take into account six senators appointed for life.
Orban first won a two-thirds majority in 2010 and used it to change Hungary’s constitution. Since then, and particularly since regaining a huge majority in 2018, he has clashed with the European Union and pushed forward what he called an “illiberal democracy,” in which judicial and media independence are curtailed.
Another 1,000 migrants rescued the other week while Lampedusa is 500 percent over capacity. Far-right looking to capitalize on the crisis ahead of the election.
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-migrant-crisis-matteo-salvini-lampedusa-island-overcrowded/
Russians meddling as well:
> Russia poses threat to Italian election, says centre-left chief
> https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/russia-poses-threat-to-italian-election-says-centre-left-chief/
Cool. More fascism.
Come on Italy – get your act together. We don’t need more right wing stupid shit going on.
We’re already doomed on something theoretical that has still to happen. A change of the Constitution, no less. [Fantastic](https://youtu.be/L8uGbtmphgk)
Going to repeat what I’ve said in the Ukraine megathread:
“But reaching a two-third majority would be difficult for the coalition and the study’s main scenario is for a right-wing coalition falling short of the two-thirds threshold.” Pretty laughable article and without a 2/3 majority a referendum would need to be called.
The title is super clickbaity and it’s pushing this Italy=Hungary angle that seems forced
Great. Why are people so fucking shortsighted and seem to drift towards autocracy and fascism again and again and again?!
I wonder how many people won’t vote in this election. Of course center and center-left parties are going to blame them if the right will win.
How will we name it… Itex, Italex, Extaly?
Trying to understand what the circumstances are in Italy at the moment causing the right to gain ground…
I have to say, this thing about crying wolf at EVERY election is getting a little embarrassing.
Since I have memory, at every election the only slogan used from the left was “vote us, or fascists will WIN!”.
Now I have to say, I don’t harbor any good thought nor respect for Salvini or Meloni, but they are no fascists. Not even Meloni, which has historically rode parties stemming from social-nationalism. Fascism, which Italians should know well, is a completely different thing. Up to now, not Meloni nor Salvini have proposed measures that radically change (emphasis on “radically”) the independence of powers, or advocate for suppression of opposition or freedom of press, or advocate for the use of violence and repression.
These articles are rubbish, the only thing they do is spreading panic.
Salvini and Meloni leading a government will not be fascism. They will undoubtably be a very bad thing for Italian economy, citizen’s civil rights progress, debt and working reforms, but in no way I can see a fall to fucking FASCISM. A bad right government cannot be called fascism, stop using terms that should be used only very few times and in very particular situations, otherwise the only result you will get is to dilute the power of the word itself, making it completely worthless.
There´re many good reasons why EU must abolish veto status as soon as possible. Orban and this calamity to come are two good reasons.
Utter BS and the usual left-wing fearmongering.
There’s no way they can get a 2/3 majority in the Parliament, not even with the broadest and most unlikely alliance.
NVM getting those numbers in an election.
Not even Christian Democrats at the peak of their power got there it’s surely not gonna happen now with FDI.
At best they’ll be in the mid-20%,needing an alliance with Lega and what’s left of Forza Italia to even hope to have a chance of building a half-stable government.