I remember commenting a few months ago saying we are likely a decade away from gated communities springing up everywhere so the upper middle class + can put a literal barrier and a few underpaid security employees between them and us South Africa style. Along with tent towns springing up in towns and cities and people living out of their cars being a mainstream thing for low paid workers…
I was told it was hyperbolic and the votes kept swinging downwards before sort of recovering.
Not so hyperbolic now is it? If anything that decade prediction seems conservative.
If you’re on the decline, then you’re not exactly emerging. Maybe submerging.
Aren’t emerging markets worth a punt on?
British markets have been fairly shit for anything beyond the top of the ftse list for income generation for a while no?
Since the brexit vote it’s been one of those markets that investors just steer clear of because, well, duh.
This reminds me of that theory that Brexit was a deliberate attempt to crash the UK economy for vulture capitalists to profit by picking off our rotting corpse.
Or the “radical supply side reform” a Tory MP spoke about Brexit being about in those leaked WhatsApp conversations back in 2021.
This country is going to collapse, Rome style get red.
Country has always been crap if you are poor. Just a bit more crap now.
Said this for a while.
All the supporters of this mess want us to be like Japan or Singapore. Completely glossing over all of the problems those places face (Japan seems downright dystopian when you actually look at a lot of social issues young people face! Singapore, aside from being a borderline police state, is literally reliant on an army of cheap migrant labour that makes our own “problems” look like nothing).
That always seemed very optimistic and I think my prediction is slowly coming true that we’ll find ourselves looking more like the decrepit ageing post-Soviet wastelands of Eastern Europe neck-deep in corruption with most just struggling to make ends meet, long before we look like some kind of advanced high-tech manufacturing economy in East Asia.
The first time I heard the comparison made was way back in late 2018 if I recall correctly, I was chatting to a couple of fx analysts regarding the 10 year outlook of the pound and they both predicted it would be prone to show emerging market currency characteristics..
Now, of course the Johnson regime has exacerbated the overall brexit fallout, but retrospectively it is quite impressive how accurate various expert opinions have turned out!
I’m a bit sceptical of these kind of announcements as different experts and journos are saying different things.
Emerging markets tend to be high growth and susceptible to massive swings (by massive, believe me, 10% inflation in a year is nothing).
Also the FTSE and pound are solid. The economic indicators across Europe are very similar, so why single out the UK?
Without any more context, this seems to be false.
The defining characteristics that distinguish *emerging* and *developed markets* are stability and the rule of law.
In a developed market you know that you can build a new factory which will take 20 years to pay for itself, without having to worry about it being expropriated by the government, as [happened in Venezuela in the past](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjSjKueBGMI) and which is an ever present concern when investing in China. Russia has always been considered an emerging market, and [investors suffered](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60928087) when it came under sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.
The UK government can borrow incredibly cheaply because we’ve have such a fantastic credit history – we’ve not defaulted in over 300 years. There have been a couple of close shaves over that time, but a couple of years ago institutions were paying the government for the privilege of lending us money – [the UK government borrowed at a negative interest rate.](https://archive.ph/pATfn) Compare this with Argentina which has defaulted on its national debt several times in the last century.
Rule of law is considered important because companies want to know they can sue competitors for stealing their trademark, suppliers who fail to meet their contractual obligations, and know that the courts are going to operate predictably, without the judge taking a backhander. They don’t want to have to worry about a competitor paying off the inspectors of the standards agency, and getting their factory or stores unfairly closed down.
Well I do wonder sometimes how this country hasn’t collapsed when so little time spent at school was actually spent learning useful things. I just remember learning either useless stuff I’ve never used since, or revising for exams and then you go and forget everything as soon as you’ve done the exam so how about actually spend time teaching us things we actually find interesting?!?!
… for smugglers.
Why talk Britain down?
Don’t worry because Liz Truss is directly contradicting the Bank of England saying that she will deliver economic growth through lowering taxes.
I know things in the UK are bad right now, but people like that supposed “analyst” make things sound a lot worse than they are.
I think they’ve got confused between market and third world…(except for the top 1% of nobs).
The tory party has destroyed this nation more assuredly than any enemy this nation has ever had.
I never know what to believe, about week ago we had the highest tech investment outside of us and china I think now we are emerging market
Isn’t ’emerging world country’ PRspeak for ‘third world country’ ?
19 comments
I remember commenting a few months ago saying we are likely a decade away from gated communities springing up everywhere so the upper middle class + can put a literal barrier and a few underpaid security employees between them and us South Africa style. Along with tent towns springing up in towns and cities and people living out of their cars being a mainstream thing for low paid workers…
I was told it was hyperbolic and the votes kept swinging downwards before sort of recovering.
Not so hyperbolic now is it? If anything that decade prediction seems conservative.
If you’re on the decline, then you’re not exactly emerging. Maybe submerging.
Aren’t emerging markets worth a punt on?
British markets have been fairly shit for anything beyond the top of the ftse list for income generation for a while no?
Since the brexit vote it’s been one of those markets that investors just steer clear of because, well, duh.
This reminds me of that theory that Brexit was a deliberate attempt to crash the UK economy for vulture capitalists to profit by picking off our rotting corpse.
Or the “radical supply side reform” a Tory MP spoke about Brexit being about in those leaked WhatsApp conversations back in 2021.
This country is going to collapse, Rome style get red.
Country has always been crap if you are poor. Just a bit more crap now.
Said this for a while.
All the supporters of this mess want us to be like Japan or Singapore. Completely glossing over all of the problems those places face (Japan seems downright dystopian when you actually look at a lot of social issues young people face! Singapore, aside from being a borderline police state, is literally reliant on an army of cheap migrant labour that makes our own “problems” look like nothing).
That always seemed very optimistic and I think my prediction is slowly coming true that we’ll find ourselves looking more like the decrepit ageing post-Soviet wastelands of Eastern Europe neck-deep in corruption with most just struggling to make ends meet, long before we look like some kind of advanced high-tech manufacturing economy in East Asia.
The first time I heard the comparison made was way back in late 2018 if I recall correctly, I was chatting to a couple of fx analysts regarding the 10 year outlook of the pound and they both predicted it would be prone to show emerging market currency characteristics..
Now, of course the Johnson regime has exacerbated the overall brexit fallout, but retrospectively it is quite impressive how accurate various expert opinions have turned out!
I’m a bit sceptical of these kind of announcements as different experts and journos are saying different things.
Emerging markets tend to be high growth and susceptible to massive swings (by massive, believe me, 10% inflation in a year is nothing).
Also the FTSE and pound are solid. The economic indicators across Europe are very similar, so why single out the UK?
Without any more context, this seems to be false.
The defining characteristics that distinguish *emerging* and *developed markets* are stability and the rule of law.
In a developed market you know that you can build a new factory which will take 20 years to pay for itself, without having to worry about it being expropriated by the government, as [happened in Venezuela in the past](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjSjKueBGMI) and which is an ever present concern when investing in China. Russia has always been considered an emerging market, and [investors suffered](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60928087) when it came under sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.
The UK government can borrow incredibly cheaply because we’ve have such a fantastic credit history – we’ve not defaulted in over 300 years. There have been a couple of close shaves over that time, but a couple of years ago institutions were paying the government for the privilege of lending us money – [the UK government borrowed at a negative interest rate.](https://archive.ph/pATfn) Compare this with Argentina which has defaulted on its national debt several times in the last century.
Rule of law is considered important because companies want to know they can sue competitors for stealing their trademark, suppliers who fail to meet their contractual obligations, and know that the courts are going to operate predictably, without the judge taking a backhander. They don’t want to have to worry about a competitor paying off the inspectors of the standards agency, and getting their factory or stores unfairly closed down.
Well I do wonder sometimes how this country hasn’t collapsed when so little time spent at school was actually spent learning useful things. I just remember learning either useless stuff I’ve never used since, or revising for exams and then you go and forget everything as soon as you’ve done the exam so how about actually spend time teaching us things we actually find interesting?!?!
… for smugglers.
Why talk Britain down?
Don’t worry because Liz Truss is directly contradicting the Bank of England saying that she will deliver economic growth through lowering taxes.
I know things in the UK are bad right now, but people like that supposed “analyst” make things sound a lot worse than they are.
I think they’ve got confused between market and third world…(except for the top 1% of nobs).
The tory party has destroyed this nation more assuredly than any enemy this nation has ever had.
I never know what to believe, about week ago we had the highest tech investment outside of us and china I think now we are emerging market
Isn’t ’emerging world country’ PRspeak for ‘third world country’ ?