>(Montel) French available nuclear capacity will dive 6-8 GW year on year this winter to a record low, meaning supply was “definitely at risk” should there be a particularly cold spell, said Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).
>Over the December-March period, up to 20 reactors would be offline for maintenance or corrosion checks, EQ added in its latest seasonal forecast published this week.
>The outages would see operator EDF’s available atomic capacity fall to record lows of 34.2 GW in Q4 and 39.3 GW in Q1, the analysts said.
>“The uncertain factors creating such a situation are not only gas prices and available French nuclear capacity but also the fear of a cold spell and increasing consumption,” the firm added.
>__Price surge__
>French winter power prices surged to a record high EUR 1,250/MWh earlier this week after Russia said it would temporarily halt gas deliveries to Europe via its Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
>Some market participants feared the pipeline would not restart after three days of maintenance due to rising tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukraine war, prompting fears of a worsening of the current gas supply squeeze.
>EQ’s forecasts are well below those published by state-owned EDF.
>The utility saw only 12 reactors offline in Q4 and five in Q1, with capacity respectively at 46.1 GW and 54.2 GW, according to its Remit data.
>That data is the subject of debate with EDF often accused of overestimating its nuclear availability.
>“A systematic overestimation” of availability “had been going on for years and this explains why the markets no longer believe in a nuclear recovery in Q4”, Emeric de Vigan, head of consultancy Cor-e, tweeted on Monday.
>There are 30 French reactors currently out of service, representing 25 GW, a 37% drop on the same time a year ago.
>__Corrosion issue__
>EDF has so far halted 12 reactors to probe for corrosion after discovering some fissures on either the safety injection or cooling circuits of five units – Civaux 1 (1.5 GW), Chooz 1 (1.5 GW), Penly 1 (1.3 GW) Chinon 3 (905 MW) and Flamanvile 2 (1.3 GW)
>This forced the firm to slash its annual nuclear output target to 280-300 TWh, the lowest level in more than 30 years.
>France was also set to become a net power importer this year due to the record low nuclear output and weak hydropower production, with net imports forecasts to hit around 13 TWh, EQ added.
>Next year, as nuclear and hydropower output recovered, France would revert to being a net power exporter, it said.
Super high capacity factor they said, best capacity factor of all energy sources!
One perspective to add to this is that technology to access, detect and measure flaws in the nuclear industry keeps getting better. This means issues are caught much earlier but also issues which previously wouldn’t be found are now. The technology has evolved but how do you work out the acceptance criteria for something that you couldn’t measure until recently.
‘ Next year, as nuclear and hydropower output recovered, France would revert to being a net power exporter, it said.’
Hydropower was badly down last year and terrible this year. With the alps Pyrenees and massif central dry how do they expect it to recover?
Edf have released nuclear output for 2023 and with even overly optimistic predictions put it at not much better than 2022. France is screwing Europe big time.
That is worrisome to hear. I hope our governments included these problems in their planning.
I still dont get it how will anyone in EU pay for electricity next year with 1000€/MWh prices. EU leaders should deal with that and not other thing, because if they dont do something realy fast EU economy will colapse before winter will be over.
7 comments
>(Montel) French available nuclear capacity will dive 6-8 GW year on year this winter to a record low, meaning supply was “definitely at risk” should there be a particularly cold spell, said Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).
>Over the December-March period, up to 20 reactors would be offline for maintenance or corrosion checks, EQ added in its latest seasonal forecast published this week.
>The outages would see operator EDF’s available atomic capacity fall to record lows of 34.2 GW in Q4 and 39.3 GW in Q1, the analysts said.
>“The uncertain factors creating such a situation are not only gas prices and available French nuclear capacity but also the fear of a cold spell and increasing consumption,” the firm added.
>__Price surge__
>French winter power prices surged to a record high EUR 1,250/MWh earlier this week after Russia said it would temporarily halt gas deliveries to Europe via its Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
>Some market participants feared the pipeline would not restart after three days of maintenance due to rising tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukraine war, prompting fears of a worsening of the current gas supply squeeze.
>EQ’s forecasts are well below those published by state-owned EDF.
>The utility saw only 12 reactors offline in Q4 and five in Q1, with capacity respectively at 46.1 GW and 54.2 GW, according to its Remit data.
>That data is the subject of debate with EDF often accused of overestimating its nuclear availability.
>“A systematic overestimation” of availability “had been going on for years and this explains why the markets no longer believe in a nuclear recovery in Q4”, Emeric de Vigan, head of consultancy Cor-e, tweeted on Monday.
>There are 30 French reactors currently out of service, representing 25 GW, a 37% drop on the same time a year ago.
>__Corrosion issue__
>EDF has so far halted 12 reactors to probe for corrosion after discovering some fissures on either the safety injection or cooling circuits of five units – Civaux 1 (1.5 GW), Chooz 1 (1.5 GW), Penly 1 (1.3 GW) Chinon 3 (905 MW) and Flamanvile 2 (1.3 GW)
>This forced the firm to slash its annual nuclear output target to 280-300 TWh, the lowest level in more than 30 years.
>France was also set to become a net power importer this year due to the record low nuclear output and weak hydropower production, with net imports forecasts to hit around 13 TWh, EQ added.
>Next year, as nuclear and hydropower output recovered, France would revert to being a net power exporter, it said.
Super high capacity factor they said, best capacity factor of all energy sources!
One perspective to add to this is that technology to access, detect and measure flaws in the nuclear industry keeps getting better. This means issues are caught much earlier but also issues which previously wouldn’t be found are now. The technology has evolved but how do you work out the acceptance criteria for something that you couldn’t measure until recently.
‘ Next year, as nuclear and hydropower output recovered, France would revert to being a net power exporter, it said.’
Hydropower was badly down last year and terrible this year. With the alps Pyrenees and massif central dry how do they expect it to recover?
Edf have released nuclear output for 2023 and with even overly optimistic predictions put it at not much better than 2022. France is screwing Europe big time.
That is worrisome to hear. I hope our governments included these problems in their planning.
I still dont get it how will anyone in EU pay for electricity next year with 1000€/MWh prices. EU leaders should deal with that and not other thing, because if they dont do something realy fast EU economy will colapse before winter will be over.
Not sure about that montel EQ estimation.
EDF’s schedule is much, much less grim :https://www.reddit.com/r/nuclear/comments/wqw0ng/french_reactor_watchlist_20220817/