Brilliant! Those models were created based on no further restrictions happening. But there have been further restrictions indicating they have worked.
Just curious but how many hospital beds are there in Ireland?
Never forget that when Ireland sought it’s leading Epedimiologist to provide the information needed at this difficult time they chose the man who had been…
…not researching infectious diseases, now that would make no sense, they chose…
The President of NUI Maynooth.
I do love seeing NPHET’s “predictions” being consistently proved wrong. It’s a shame that the public still trust the crap they put out.
Comparing the current situation to the model isn’t a fair comparison as the scenario modeled isn’t the scenario that played out
Jesus I’d be so happy if we can actually have pubs and restaurants this Christmas even if they close early, last Christmas was beyond depressing
“It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period.”
— Richard P. Feynman
For those of you that have ever read Nassim Taleb:
All models are wrong, some are useful.
NPHETs remit is public health, they will always err on the side of caution, be that in modelling, advice or recommendations.
Government’s role should be to assess the recommendations, interrogate the models and enact changes as necessary, after due consideration of all relevant factors, weighed appropriately.
As it is the Cabinet are largely waving through NPHET’s advice as it gives them cover from blowback from the electorate and opposition.
9 comments
Brilliant! Those models were created based on no further restrictions happening. But there have been further restrictions indicating they have worked.
Just curious but how many hospital beds are there in Ireland?
Never forget that when Ireland sought it’s leading Epedimiologist to provide the information needed at this difficult time they chose the man who had been…
…not researching infectious diseases, now that would make no sense, they chose…
The President of NUI Maynooth.
I do love seeing NPHET’s “predictions” being consistently proved wrong. It’s a shame that the public still trust the crap they put out.
Comparing the current situation to the model isn’t a fair comparison as the scenario modeled isn’t the scenario that played out
Jesus I’d be so happy if we can actually have pubs and restaurants this Christmas even if they close early, last Christmas was beyond depressing
“It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period.”
— Richard P. Feynman
For those of you that have ever read Nassim Taleb:
All models are wrong, some are useful.
NPHETs remit is public health, they will always err on the side of caution, be that in modelling, advice or recommendations.
Government’s role should be to assess the recommendations, interrogate the models and enact changes as necessary, after due consideration of all relevant factors, weighed appropriately.
As it is the Cabinet are largely waving through NPHET’s advice as it gives them cover from blowback from the electorate and opposition.