Black outs this winter?

12 comments

1. Low possibility.

2. Get a huge one, you’ll be without power for days on end.

3. I’m not gonna lie, I misread the title and I was gonna complain about open racism, now I’m laughing at myself.

   I think the black out concern gets raised every year. It’s going to be expensive and save where you can but a lot of the blackout talk will likely just be talk.

4. It going to be end of the world stuff, you’d be better of getting a shotgun to deal with your rabid neighbors when society collapses

5. Know a guy that have blackouts almost every Friday night and he is not complaining

6. Guy from Eirgrid on the radio this morning said he could not guarantee no blackouts but that it was very unlikely and would take a number of different things happening together for blackouts to occur.

7. Our grid has fairly robust interconnections with UK so we should have sufficient backup if we need it.

8. [2021 scare story about winter electricity blackouts in Ireland ](https://www.thejournal.ie/eirgrid-report-ireland-electricity-shortages-five-winters-5560564-Sep2021/)

   [2020 scare story about winter electricity blackouts in Ireland](https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1211/1183760-eirgrid-warning-outages/)

   [2019 scare story about electricity blackouts in Ireland ](https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-30946576.html)

   The reason we have a risk of electricity blackouts in Ireland is that we are allowing massive data centres to consume up to a fifth of all electricity we procure and produce. The Government don’t like to admit that they long since decided to put the interests of foreign companies ahead of the interests of Irish families, but that’s a much more significant driver in any blackout than the war (which is being used as cover for every failing of the State at the moment).

9. Anything’s possible, but it’s very unlikely. EirGrid are mooting the possibility, in the hope of getting people to use less power at peak times.

10. The likelihood of a blackout will be about the same as normal. I.E. very rare unless there’s a storm.

    That said, storms do happen, so you should be prepared anyway, I’ve got power banks, torches, candles, turf and coal, all at the ready.

11. EirGrid sez:

    “The Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) in Ireland for the five months of the winter period being studied is 51
    hours. The LOLE has increased from 17.4 hours last winter and is outside the 8 hours per year standard.
    This means the system will operate at a higher level of risk than is set by the Commission for Regulation of
    Utilities. There is an expectation that the system will enter the Alert State at times, most likely at periods of
    low wind and low interconnector imports.

    There is a high probability of the system entering the Emergency
    State at times, due to insuffcient generation being available to meet the demand. The Expected Unserved
    Energy (EUE) figure would suggest that, on average, electricity consumers could potentially be without supply
    for approximately 4 hours over the winter period. LOLE is a metric used to measure the risk or likelihood of
    such an event happening. This does not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will be without supply
    for any period.

    Based on information at the time of the data freeze, late November to mid-December and early-January to
    mid-February are expected to be the most onerous periods from a capacity margin perspective.

    There is no risk of a system-wide “blackout” (a total loss of control of the electricity system) solely due to
    insuffcient generation in Ireland or Northern Ireland under any circumstances this winter. Other conditions
    would have to be present or multiple and signifcant failures occur to cause a system wide blackout. ”

    https://www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/210963-EirGrid-Winter-Outlook-2022-2023.pdf

12. They will happen, and Irleand will be the first to have them.