A fall in house prices would not be a bad thing, as they are over-priced, but this won’t do anything for the housing shortage. And it doesn’t matter if the prices fall if banks aren’t willing to lend people money
While the mortgage rates rise slowly towards 10% too…
Probably for the best
It confirms that I was right to sit out the recent hysteria of people falling over each other to overpay on houses just because they would save a few grand on stamp duty
We may get a second chance on that remote 9 acre plot that we were gazumped on by 15% over the summer
I’m saving up to buy a house and hope to have enough saved by mid-2023 to pay in full for one near my brother–so very welcome news.
Good for those wanting to move, but those of us on a fixed rate ending towards the back end of next year, higher rates and lower LTV is a big old bag of shit.
The UK housing market is completely unaffordable. It creates generational wealth gaps and skews it in favour of the rich.
Im looking to buy in the next 12-18 months and looking at Zoopla/ Rightmove for property history I’ve seen in 2 years a property which I could afford at 212k had shot up to 300k.
In some places the property has quadruple in 15 years.
​
Housing needs to drop by a minimum 10%
If the Zoopla estimated house prices are to be believed, for houses and flats near me (central Edinburgh) this wipes out 1 year of value growth, maybe 2 at worst.
A reminder that 10% would only put them back to around the prices they were this time last year…
Great news for first time buyers, awful news for people like my parents
To the average house buyer cheaper houses sounds good. But rising interest rates means the mortgage repayments will be twice as much per month.
100k mortgage with 1% rates on a 20 year would be £460 per month
On a 8% that goes up to £830
And let’s be honest there’s not many places you can get a 2 bed house under 150k now
If a house was worth 200k in Q1 2020 at the start of COVID, its market price is roughly 254k now. A 27% increase.
If a person bought over two years ago, that house could drop 20% and still be in profit.
Hasn’t this been predicted for the last 6 months & to the shock of nobody they’ve continued to climb?
Bubble’s going to burst it’d just a matter of when, csn only see this causing people not to sell up as thwy’re literally getting less value for money as the £ tanks…
Not going to happen.
In some areas they may drop, but in any area you actually want to live in, they won’t.
Foreign buyers and investors will scoop up everything and demand from them is not going to go anywhere. If anything, it’ll grow and probably push prices up even higher.
Even if they fell 10%, it means nothing.
I saw a property in Bristol increase 70% in 18months… 10% aint gonna cut it
This has been a long time coming. The debt bubble that developed before 2009 would normally have ended with inflation, rate rises and a house price crash.
But that bubble got so big that it took down the banks. The bailout of the banks was also a bail out of UK housing market.
Thanks to austerity, UK economic growth was poor under Cameron/Osborne, so inflation did not pick up. The Bank of England had no need to raise rates (and indeed with weak economic growth rate rises would have been dangerous). The result of persistently low rates was that after a brief reverse house prices in most of the country returned to their upward path.
Anytime the housing market looked at risk of a fall, the government propped it up with taxpayers money (Help to Buy etc).
This has now gone on so long, the options available to prop up this market in this latest crisis have all but run out.
Personally, I think 10% is a conservative estimate for the falls that will be seen in some places in the UK.
There will be enormous pain and loss.
All because no-one has been prepared to tell the UK public the unpalatable truth – that their obsession with rising house prices was unsustainable, divisive and frankly stupid.
Add: downvoting this post does make it any less true. But if you want to put your head in the sand, feel free.
Hmm, it’s hard to know what’s best to do now. Current mortgage deal has finished so payments are going up.
We’ve been wanting to move house to upgrade our 2 bed to maybe a bigger 3 bed house this year. Current mortgage is around 30% paid off.
Is it best to move now before the predicted drop happens or wait?
If we wait, as a current home owner the value of my house will drop, but so will everything else, so is it a big deal?
If we move now, we’d get the benefit of locking in the interest rates now before they increase further, while house prices are still high?
Does it noticeably really matter in the end if it all shifts by 10%?
Oh good I’m glad I finally after so many years managed to buy a house just in time for this, that’s just about my usual luck.
This is one thing I can see the Tories stepping in to solve, only because it affects them, or their friends and family, directly. They won’t want to see their investments harmed by their own actions.
Here’s the stupid thing. We bought in 2020. If the market “crashes” by 10%, our house will still be worth more than it was 2 years ago when we bought it.
If it can do that 5 more times I might finally be able to afford somewhere to live.
Prices have had 20 years worth of the standard 10% equity in 10 years increases, in 3 years.
Houses prices need to be back to pre pandemic levels really and mortgage rates ar about 4% for the whole thing not to implode completely
21 comments
A fall in house prices would not be a bad thing, as they are over-priced, but this won’t do anything for the housing shortage. And it doesn’t matter if the prices fall if banks aren’t willing to lend people money
While the mortgage rates rise slowly towards 10% too…
Probably for the best
It confirms that I was right to sit out the recent hysteria of people falling over each other to overpay on houses just because they would save a few grand on stamp duty
We may get a second chance on that remote 9 acre plot that we were gazumped on by 15% over the summer
I’m saving up to buy a house and hope to have enough saved by mid-2023 to pay in full for one near my brother–so very welcome news.
Good for those wanting to move, but those of us on a fixed rate ending towards the back end of next year, higher rates and lower LTV is a big old bag of shit.
The UK housing market is completely unaffordable. It creates generational wealth gaps and skews it in favour of the rich.
Im looking to buy in the next 12-18 months and looking at Zoopla/ Rightmove for property history I’ve seen in 2 years a property which I could afford at 212k had shot up to 300k.
In some places the property has quadruple in 15 years.
​
Housing needs to drop by a minimum 10%
If the Zoopla estimated house prices are to be believed, for houses and flats near me (central Edinburgh) this wipes out 1 year of value growth, maybe 2 at worst.
A reminder that 10% would only put them back to around the prices they were this time last year…
Great news for first time buyers, awful news for people like my parents
To the average house buyer cheaper houses sounds good. But rising interest rates means the mortgage repayments will be twice as much per month.
100k mortgage with 1% rates on a 20 year would be £460 per month
On a 8% that goes up to £830
And let’s be honest there’s not many places you can get a 2 bed house under 150k now
If a house was worth 200k in Q1 2020 at the start of COVID, its market price is roughly 254k now. A 27% increase.
If a person bought over two years ago, that house could drop 20% and still be in profit.
Hasn’t this been predicted for the last 6 months & to the shock of nobody they’ve continued to climb?
Bubble’s going to burst it’d just a matter of when, csn only see this causing people not to sell up as thwy’re literally getting less value for money as the £ tanks…
Not going to happen.
In some areas they may drop, but in any area you actually want to live in, they won’t.
Foreign buyers and investors will scoop up everything and demand from them is not going to go anywhere. If anything, it’ll grow and probably push prices up even higher.
Even if they fell 10%, it means nothing.
I saw a property in Bristol increase 70% in 18months… 10% aint gonna cut it
This has been a long time coming. The debt bubble that developed before 2009 would normally have ended with inflation, rate rises and a house price crash.
But that bubble got so big that it took down the banks. The bailout of the banks was also a bail out of UK housing market.
Thanks to austerity, UK economic growth was poor under Cameron/Osborne, so inflation did not pick up. The Bank of England had no need to raise rates (and indeed with weak economic growth rate rises would have been dangerous). The result of persistently low rates was that after a brief reverse house prices in most of the country returned to their upward path.
Anytime the housing market looked at risk of a fall, the government propped it up with taxpayers money (Help to Buy etc).
This has now gone on so long, the options available to prop up this market in this latest crisis have all but run out.
Personally, I think 10% is a conservative estimate for the falls that will be seen in some places in the UK.
There will be enormous pain and loss.
All because no-one has been prepared to tell the UK public the unpalatable truth – that their obsession with rising house prices was unsustainable, divisive and frankly stupid.
Add: downvoting this post does make it any less true. But if you want to put your head in the sand, feel free.
Hmm, it’s hard to know what’s best to do now. Current mortgage deal has finished so payments are going up.
We’ve been wanting to move house to upgrade our 2 bed to maybe a bigger 3 bed house this year. Current mortgage is around 30% paid off.
Is it best to move now before the predicted drop happens or wait?
If we wait, as a current home owner the value of my house will drop, but so will everything else, so is it a big deal?
If we move now, we’d get the benefit of locking in the interest rates now before they increase further, while house prices are still high?
Does it noticeably really matter in the end if it all shifts by 10%?
Oh good I’m glad I finally after so many years managed to buy a house just in time for this, that’s just about my usual luck.
This is one thing I can see the Tories stepping in to solve, only because it affects them, or their friends and family, directly. They won’t want to see their investments harmed by their own actions.
Here’s the stupid thing. We bought in 2020. If the market “crashes” by 10%, our house will still be worth more than it was 2 years ago when we bought it.
If it can do that 5 more times I might finally be able to afford somewhere to live.
Prices have had 20 years worth of the standard 10% equity in 10 years increases, in 3 years.
Houses prices need to be back to pre pandemic levels really and mortgage rates ar about 4% for the whole thing not to implode completely