I doubt sanctions on individuals will change much.
Broad economic sanctions will surely hurt the Russian economy, but there is little evidence that individual sanctions have any “positive” effect in changing behavior. They do sound good for internal audiences though.
Gonna be an awkward call. Maybe he should text instead.
Sanctions are not going to change much. If the U.S and West want change, they need to come to the table and take our sensitivities into consideration. The Ukranian people do not deserve to be caught in a geo political pull and tug between the U.S and Russia. In the end, that is what this comes to. Whilst dressed up as ‘aiding Ukranian aspirations’, the U.S has long desired to encroach Russia, using NATO as an instrument to set up forward operating bases. This policy only accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We protested about the Baltics joining but by then, Russia was weak whilst organising itself. Things have now changed and we have drawn the red line. Ukraine joining NATO will be seen as a security threat. Ukraine hosting NATO forces, even under the auspices of a ‘train and assist’ will be interpreted as a casus belli.
It is not too late to reverse the course of confrontation. The Ukranian people need to know that when push comes to shove, Russia will escalate and it’s not the going to be American, British, Estonian, Lithuanian, German or French forces that will be dying on the front, it will be Ukranians under an overwhelming force. They can expect strongly worded letters, tweets, sanctions and emergency EU & NATO meetings at the best but that is as far as they’ll go.
>”We have put together a pretty damn aggressive package,” the official said, and have warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine the US and Europe together will impose the worst economic sanctions that have ever been imposed on a country, outside of Iran and North Korea.
Assuming that that’s accurate, they’d be more-severe than the ones placed on Japan.
> Unwilling to allow Japan to go unchecked in its occupation of foreign territories, the United States imposed a series of hefty sanctions against Japan. The sanctions froze assets within the United States, resulting in the loss of three-quarters of Japan’s overseas trade. Additionally, over 80% of Japan’s imported oil supply was severed, a serious blow, especially to Japan’s Imperial Navy.
>
>Before the imposition of the sanctions, Japan’s oil reserves were supposed to be sufficient to last three years, but with an expansion of its navy and further activity in the Pacific, that estimation would be reduced immensely.
>
>With sanctions in place, Japan faced three options:
>
>* Do nothing, and let the US cut resources vital to its expansion
>* Continue its expansion, taking over more of Southeast Asia and getting needed resources through force
>* Push back against the United States to remove its influence in the Pacific
>
>Japan’s answer
>
>December 7th, 1941
>
>134 days after the sanctions were put into place, the United States received Japan’s response in the form of a devastating attack on their Oahu naval base.
Medvedev’s been cited as having claimed that the US would have to understand that sanctions impacting bank operations — which I suppose would include SWIFT — would be considered a “declaration of economic war” and left an unspecific threat.
>Medvedev said Moscow would take economic, political or other retaliatory measures against the United States if Washington targeted Russian banks.
>
>”I would not like to comment on talks about future sanctions, but I can say one thing: If some ban on banks’ operations or on their use of one or another currency follows, it would be possible to clearly call it a declaration of economic war,” said Medvedev.
>
>”And it would be necessary, it would be needed to react to this war economically, politically, or, if needed, by other means. And our American friends need to understand this,” he said, speaking on a trip to the Russian Far East.
Guess if Putin actually wants to do an attack on Ukraine, it’s hard decision time in the Kremlin as to what their reaction is going to be if they run into those sanctions.
4 comments
I doubt sanctions on individuals will change much.
Broad economic sanctions will surely hurt the Russian economy, but there is little evidence that individual sanctions have any “positive” effect in changing behavior. They do sound good for internal audiences though.
Gonna be an awkward call. Maybe he should text instead.
Sanctions are not going to change much. If the U.S and West want change, they need to come to the table and take our sensitivities into consideration. The Ukranian people do not deserve to be caught in a geo political pull and tug between the U.S and Russia. In the end, that is what this comes to. Whilst dressed up as ‘aiding Ukranian aspirations’, the U.S has long desired to encroach Russia, using NATO as an instrument to set up forward operating bases. This policy only accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We protested about the Baltics joining but by then, Russia was weak whilst organising itself. Things have now changed and we have drawn the red line. Ukraine joining NATO will be seen as a security threat. Ukraine hosting NATO forces, even under the auspices of a ‘train and assist’ will be interpreted as a casus belli.
It is not too late to reverse the course of confrontation. The Ukranian people need to know that when push comes to shove, Russia will escalate and it’s not the going to be American, British, Estonian, Lithuanian, German or French forces that will be dying on the front, it will be Ukranians under an overwhelming force. They can expect strongly worded letters, tweets, sanctions and emergency EU & NATO meetings at the best but that is as far as they’ll go.
>”We have put together a pretty damn aggressive package,” the official said, and have warned Russia that if it invades Ukraine the US and Europe together will impose the worst economic sanctions that have ever been imposed on a country, outside of Iran and North Korea.
Assuming that that’s accurate, they’d be more-severe than the ones placed on Japan.
https://pearlharbor.org/american-sanctions-spur-pearl-harbor/
> Unwilling to allow Japan to go unchecked in its occupation of foreign territories, the United States imposed a series of hefty sanctions against Japan. The sanctions froze assets within the United States, resulting in the loss of three-quarters of Japan’s overseas trade. Additionally, over 80% of Japan’s imported oil supply was severed, a serious blow, especially to Japan’s Imperial Navy.
>
>Before the imposition of the sanctions, Japan’s oil reserves were supposed to be sufficient to last three years, but with an expansion of its navy and further activity in the Pacific, that estimation would be reduced immensely.
>
>With sanctions in place, Japan faced three options:
>
>* Do nothing, and let the US cut resources vital to its expansion
>* Continue its expansion, taking over more of Southeast Asia and getting needed resources through force
>* Push back against the United States to remove its influence in the Pacific
>
>Japan’s answer
>
>December 7th, 1941
>
>134 days after the sanctions were put into place, the United States received Japan’s response in the form of a devastating attack on their Oahu naval base.
Medvedev’s been cited as having claimed that the US would have to understand that sanctions impacting bank operations — which I suppose would include SWIFT — would be considered a “declaration of economic war” and left an unspecific threat.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/08/10/medvedev-more-us-sanctions-are-economic-war-a62491
>Medvedev said Moscow would take economic, political or other retaliatory measures against the United States if Washington targeted Russian banks.
>
>”I would not like to comment on talks about future sanctions, but I can say one thing: If some ban on banks’ operations or on their use of one or another currency follows, it would be possible to clearly call it a declaration of economic war,” said Medvedev.
>
>”And it would be necessary, it would be needed to react to this war economically, politically, or, if needed, by other means. And our American friends need to understand this,” he said, speaking on a trip to the Russian Far East.
Guess if Putin actually wants to do an attack on Ukraine, it’s hard decision time in the Kremlin as to what their reaction is going to be if they run into those sanctions.