State elections in German Lower Saxony: Center-left SPD strongest faction, gains for Greens and far-right AfD

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  1. (All numbers are projected results by ARD in %, as of 22:58. Link is in German)

    Note that this is a state-level election. Since local elections are often influenced significantly by the popularities of local politicians, it is not unconditionally possible to draw a direct comparison to the general political landscape in all of Germany.

    * The largest party in terms of voter share is the incumbent center-left SPD (33.4|-3.5), which is currently leading the federal government as well.
    * The second largest party, center-right CDU (28.1|-5.5), performed below its own expectations.
    * The biggest gains in terms of voter share when compared to the last state election were the Greens (14.5|+5.8), and the far-right AfD (11.0|+4.8).
    * The liberal FDP (4.7|-2.8), which is also a member of the federal government coalition, performed poorly. It will most likely drop out of parliament.

    As no single party obtained a majority, the government will most likely be formed by a coalition of two or more parties.

    The current government is a SPD-led “grand coalition” with the CDU. Numbers-wise, it would still be a viable option, but neither party has expressed a desire to continue with the current composition.

    The favoured coalition of the SPD would be a “Red-Green” coalition with the Green party. This is considered the most likely outcome.

    Other coalitions would have to involve AfD, which is considered somewhat of a Taboo among the bigger political parties, and will almost definitely not happen.

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