Well he stated what is the most likely course of action. But bad timing and optics anyhow.
I don’t see what’s the big deal here exactly. Yeah no shit, of course the British, the French or the Yanks wouldn’t even for a second consider pressing big red button in defense of territory other then their own.
Macron said something that everybody knew and got the blame
If France/US/UK were acting in self defence (or collective sd) they would respond with nuclear weapons, they won’t do that for Ukraine
good, maybe politicians learn to shut up if they don’t have anything useful to add
That messaging only encourages Putin to use nuclear escalation.
This isn’t Hollywood …
Politico doing Politico things..
I see Macron is on a roll this week.
In order to save some time and skip the next few embarrassing statements, I think he should straight up propose redoing the Yalta conference in the hope of avoiding a war.
That worked out brilliantly last time.
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For the avoidance of doubt, I don’t think that he’s wrong to decide that France won’t respond in kind. He is, however, wrong to say so publicly. There’s a very good reason why other countries are being ambiguous.
From who? Like 24 people on Twitter who get to shape the online narrative?
Eh cant really blame Macron for this one, he didnt need to actually say it though.
This is internal politics: he’s trying to avoid the fear of nuclear Armageddon that some of the French have in case of escalation if France continues to support the war efforts in Ukraine.
The French doctrine is clear, nuclear is last resort if France national interest and integrity under threat (hence the reason they don’t pledge it to NATO to cover others’ interest contrary to all the other non nuclear arsenal) Other Nato nuclear powers, US and UK, are part of the Budapest memorandum, so in theory in they could respond, but if they do, they bring all others NATO country with them, hence why they will carpet bomb Russian position with conventional stuff first and stay clear of the border.
The way is see the message coming from Paris is the following: “we will kick Russia’s ass conventionally, but we don’t really don’t want to go nuclear”.
France has the most “loose” nuclear doctrine, because they have the pre-emotive strike if national security is severely threatened. Also, if any nuclear fallout hits France (wind etc.) they can also go nuclear. So Macron trying to tone things down is actually a good thing. I like it.
France did deliver tons of arms to Ukraine before the war to deter Russia from attacking and they are ramping up supplies now. I think they are playing it good.
How did he lost the opportunity to add a “because it wouldn’t be necessary, russia is so weak that conventional means are more than enough!” is something I still don’t understand…
Did they expect him, to attack Russia with nuclear weapons?
>“[Nuclear] dissuasion’s credibility relies on not saying anything about what we would have to do,” former French President François Hollande said on FranceInfo radio, adding one needed to “say as little as possible and be prepared to do as much as possible.”
Yes, but at the same time, nuclear dissuasion should be taboo, not a weekly discussion topic on national television.
Putin likes to think that “the West” would be too scared to turn against him because he has nukes, so he’s pushing the narrative that he is ready to use them. If “the West” doesn’t react at all to this and lets doubt set in, we might get to a point where Putin makes yet another miscalculation and actually decides to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
US officials have started sending the clear message that if Putin uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine NATO will join the conflict *inside Ukraine* and use *conventional weapons* to destroy Russian troops *in Ukraine*. This does not leave any room to interpretation and takes away the risk of miscalculation from Putin. If he does decide to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine he is very well aware that there will be consequences and what those consequences are. IMHO this is a much better strategy in the current context than just keeping the doubt.
What Macron does is carry the same message, if Russia would use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine that alone would not justify France declaring war on Russia. France would not be able to use a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian territory either since countries with nuclear capabilities are not allowed to use them in other countries without this capability. So France is reinforcing its presence around Russia in case NATO will have to intervene.
The only difference is that in the US the message has been sent by lower ranking officials, Biden himself never said he won’t use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, while Macron did. Whatever, if you have at least half a brain you get that the message is exactly the same.
15 comments
Well he stated what is the most likely course of action. But bad timing and optics anyhow.
I don’t see what’s the big deal here exactly. Yeah no shit, of course the British, the French or the Yanks wouldn’t even for a second consider pressing big red button in defense of territory other then their own.
Macron said something that everybody knew and got the blame
If France/US/UK were acting in self defence (or collective sd) they would respond with nuclear weapons, they won’t do that for Ukraine
good, maybe politicians learn to shut up if they don’t have anything useful to add
That messaging only encourages Putin to use nuclear escalation.
This isn’t Hollywood …
Politico doing Politico things..
I see Macron is on a roll this week.
In order to save some time and skip the next few embarrassing statements, I think he should straight up propose redoing the Yalta conference in the hope of avoiding a war.
That worked out brilliantly last time.
—
For the avoidance of doubt, I don’t think that he’s wrong to decide that France won’t respond in kind. He is, however, wrong to say so publicly. There’s a very good reason why other countries are being ambiguous.
From who? Like 24 people on Twitter who get to shape the online narrative?
Eh cant really blame Macron for this one, he didnt need to actually say it though.
This is internal politics: he’s trying to avoid the fear of nuclear Armageddon that some of the French have in case of escalation if France continues to support the war efforts in Ukraine.
The French doctrine is clear, nuclear is last resort if France national interest and integrity under threat (hence the reason they don’t pledge it to NATO to cover others’ interest contrary to all the other non nuclear arsenal) Other Nato nuclear powers, US and UK, are part of the Budapest memorandum, so in theory in they could respond, but if they do, they bring all others NATO country with them, hence why they will carpet bomb Russian position with conventional stuff first and stay clear of the border.
The way is see the message coming from Paris is the following: “we will kick Russia’s ass conventionally, but we don’t really don’t want to go nuclear”.
France has the most “loose” nuclear doctrine, because they have the pre-emotive strike if national security is severely threatened. Also, if any nuclear fallout hits France (wind etc.) they can also go nuclear. So Macron trying to tone things down is actually a good thing. I like it.
France did deliver tons of arms to Ukraine before the war to deter Russia from attacking and they are ramping up supplies now. I think they are playing it good.
How did he lost the opportunity to add a “because it wouldn’t be necessary, russia is so weak that conventional means are more than enough!” is something I still don’t understand…
Did they expect him, to attack Russia with nuclear weapons?
>“[Nuclear] dissuasion’s credibility relies on not saying anything about what we would have to do,” former French President François Hollande said on FranceInfo radio, adding one needed to “say as little as possible and be prepared to do as much as possible.”
Yes, but at the same time, nuclear dissuasion should be taboo, not a weekly discussion topic on national television.
Putin likes to think that “the West” would be too scared to turn against him because he has nukes, so he’s pushing the narrative that he is ready to use them. If “the West” doesn’t react at all to this and lets doubt set in, we might get to a point where Putin makes yet another miscalculation and actually decides to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
US officials have started sending the clear message that if Putin uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine NATO will join the conflict *inside Ukraine* and use *conventional weapons* to destroy Russian troops *in Ukraine*. This does not leave any room to interpretation and takes away the risk of miscalculation from Putin. If he does decide to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine he is very well aware that there will be consequences and what those consequences are. IMHO this is a much better strategy in the current context than just keeping the doubt.
What Macron does is carry the same message, if Russia would use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine that alone would not justify France declaring war on Russia. France would not be able to use a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian territory either since countries with nuclear capabilities are not allowed to use them in other countries without this capability. So France is reinforcing its presence around Russia in case NATO will have to intervene.
The only difference is that in the US the message has been sent by lower ranking officials, Biden himself never said he won’t use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, while Macron did. Whatever, if you have at least half a brain you get that the message is exactly the same.