What a surprise. Surely that joke of a tax for empty houses will finally strike down those greedy practices.
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. If you look at evolution since Q3 to a year ago, sure. Imho we will start seeing repercussions of the situation starting spring/summer next year only. If house prices still show positive growth Q2 next year, then we’ll be talking.
Oh, believe me, that’s not going to last. Not even sure these stats take all the relevant RE assets into account, that a normal person would.
Way to early to tell, prices might be rising (also doubtfull statement for this month) but there are less sales being done.
If the mortgages keep rising then we will also see a negative effect on the prices themselves in the coming months until the whole situation normalizes a bit.
When cattenom blows up , i expect a property downturn otherwise in the best case no increase at least in lux city.
I guess people are rich here given the property prices , even paris is getting cheaper than lux city
How will prices ever go down if more and more people move to Luxembourg. If the government would abandon this silly ‘muhhh 1 million inhabitants in Luxembourg’ project, then we may see prices going down. Limiting the population growth or outright banning it would be the only way to stop it, but it would be too extreme… so yeah I am afraid prices will just climb forever.
Its the inflation that is fuelling everything. Market will adjust based on what the reality is. The borrowing rate in India was 8% when it was 1% here in 2020. Now India is at 6.75% and Lux is around 4%, which tells you how much things have changed.
6% mortgages in the uk but the banks model up to 9-10% for qualification purposes…a lot of purchases are falling through. If that happened here I don’t see how anyone could achieve a 1m euro loan unless they are at the very top income bracket
they will rise until supply meets demand
I remember thinking 10 years ago how expensive is to buy a property. Oh, young and native me. If only i did buy then …
“Lorsque vous revendez vos projets après avoir gardé un terrain 10 ou 15 ans, le tarif est tout de même celui de l’année en cours et non pas celui 10 ou 15 ans plus tôt…”
*”When you resell your projects after keeping a piece of land for 10 or 15 years, the rate is still that of the current year and not the one 10 or 15 years earlier…” – Of course…*
A real mafia.
A wise man once said: there are so many people. we need a new plague.
Just kidding.
It seems there is a worldwide housing crisis. Population is growing faster than construction projects.
More importabtly, corporate greed, american capitalism business model on steroids. I read on this sub, a while ago, that the exxaggerated prices in luxembourg are caused by american speculators allowed to speculate in luxembourg. This whole financial-instruments and financial-products model creates pseudo wealth. Fictitious money circulating bank accounts only, not backed by real assets or production.
the good thing is that there are far less buyers right now. they will be repriced lower at some point
I don’t think athome is statistically accurate. Afaik they do not know if the house was actually sold or not. It is very common for people to sign a contract and get a bank loan denial months later while the house is already market as “sold” on athome.
Statec (or any sources using them as reference) is the only reliable source on that matter but the data that I found only provides yearly comparisons (like Q1_2021 compared to Q1_2022).
What I would like to know is the quarterly or even monthly comparison.
I kept an eye on house prices around Luxembourg city for a couple of years now and there is a noticeable change. Not only do I get multiple daily notifications, some prices are being consistently adjusted downwards for projects that would have instantly sold a year ago. I also see a lot of new projects not finding any buyers.
If the government slows down consumer index handouts and ECB keeps increasing interest rate I absolutely disagree with most comments in here, I expect a massive drop in prices.
To those who said that the Luxembourg housing market never experienced a crash, [this is actually not correct.](https://tradingeconomics.com/luxembourg/house-price-idx-eurostat-data.html) During the great recession in 2008, we did experience a slow down even in Luxembourg and I expect something similar to happen now. We already see the downtrend in the stock market, housing will follow – not as fast and not as excessive, but a 30% drop is not unrealistic.
15 comments
What a surprise. Surely that joke of a tax for empty houses will finally strike down those greedy practices.
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. If you look at evolution since Q3 to a year ago, sure. Imho we will start seeing repercussions of the situation starting spring/summer next year only. If house prices still show positive growth Q2 next year, then we’ll be talking.
Oh, believe me, that’s not going to last. Not even sure these stats take all the relevant RE assets into account, that a normal person would.
Way to early to tell, prices might be rising (also doubtfull statement for this month) but there are less sales being done.
If the mortgages keep rising then we will also see a negative effect on the prices themselves in the coming months until the whole situation normalizes a bit.
When cattenom blows up , i expect a property downturn otherwise in the best case no increase at least in lux city.
I guess people are rich here given the property prices , even paris is getting cheaper than lux city
How will prices ever go down if more and more people move to Luxembourg. If the government would abandon this silly ‘muhhh 1 million inhabitants in Luxembourg’ project, then we may see prices going down. Limiting the population growth or outright banning it would be the only way to stop it, but it would be too extreme… so yeah I am afraid prices will just climb forever.
Its the inflation that is fuelling everything. Market will adjust based on what the reality is. The borrowing rate in India was 8% when it was 1% here in 2020. Now India is at 6.75% and Lux is around 4%, which tells you how much things have changed.
6% mortgages in the uk but the banks model up to 9-10% for qualification purposes…a lot of purchases are falling through. If that happened here I don’t see how anyone could achieve a 1m euro loan unless they are at the very top income bracket
they will rise until supply meets demand
I remember thinking 10 years ago how expensive is to buy a property. Oh, young and native me. If only i did buy then …
More cash for me 🤑
Meanwhile… https://paperjam.lu/article/promoteurs-immobiliers-vont-co
“Lorsque vous revendez vos projets après avoir gardé un terrain 10 ou 15 ans, le tarif est tout de même celui de l’année en cours et non pas celui 10 ou 15 ans plus tôt…”
*”When you resell your projects after keeping a piece of land for 10 or 15 years, the rate is still that of the current year and not the one 10 or 15 years earlier…” – Of course…*
A real mafia.
A wise man once said: there are so many people. we need a new plague.
Just kidding.
It seems there is a worldwide housing crisis. Population is growing faster than construction projects.
More importabtly, corporate greed, american capitalism business model on steroids. I read on this sub, a while ago, that the exxaggerated prices in luxembourg are caused by american speculators allowed to speculate in luxembourg. This whole financial-instruments and financial-products model creates pseudo wealth. Fictitious money circulating bank accounts only, not backed by real assets or production.
the good thing is that there are far less buyers right now. they will be repriced lower at some point
I don’t think athome is statistically accurate. Afaik they do not know if the house was actually sold or not. It is very common for people to sign a contract and get a bank loan denial months later while the house is already market as “sold” on athome.
Statec (or any sources using them as reference) is the only reliable source on that matter but the data that I found only provides yearly comparisons (like Q1_2021 compared to Q1_2022).
What I would like to know is the quarterly or even monthly comparison.
I kept an eye on house prices around Luxembourg city for a couple of years now and there is a noticeable change. Not only do I get multiple daily notifications, some prices are being consistently adjusted downwards for projects that would have instantly sold a year ago. I also see a lot of new projects not finding any buyers.
If the government slows down consumer index handouts and ECB keeps increasing interest rate I absolutely disagree with most comments in here, I expect a massive drop in prices.
To those who said that the Luxembourg housing market never experienced a crash, [this is actually not correct.](https://tradingeconomics.com/luxembourg/house-price-idx-eurostat-data.html) During the great recession in 2008, we did experience a slow down even in Luxembourg and I expect something similar to happen now. We already see the downtrend in the stock market, housing will follow – not as fast and not as excessive, but a 30% drop is not unrealistic.