I’d guess Westminster cares a whole lot more about Scotland than a United ireland
Great Britain would love to be rid of Northern Ireland, it’s an economic blackhole for the Exchequer and an endless source of problems.
The BREXIT debates and deals over the last couple of years I’ve demonstrated to unionists that the people of mainland Britain to not really care about their union…… well not nearly as much as the Unionists do.
Also with the *projected* demographic shifts in the North unionism will become more and more irrelevant as time goes on.
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(Edits in italic from speech to text mistake.)
Westminster cares about Ireland uniting? Who wrote that, the DUP?
Anand Menon didn’t say what is reported in BelTel.
Ireland’s economic trajectory was one of the narratives used by the Yes campaign in the indyref. They also pointed out how similar the arguments against Scottish independence matched the arguments against Ireland’s secession.
I actually think Irish unification is likely to happen much sooner. In NI, unification is a conversation that isn’t ‘owned’ by SF the way independence is by the SNP. The complications caused by Brexit – but which unification could fix – have tangible impacts on people’s daily lives, whereas in Scotland the biggest problem that independence ‘solves’ is the spectre of Conservative national government.
The 2014 referendum politically mobilised younger people (the way the repeal/marriage referendums did here) and their experience may have ripple effects in the future, but it’ll take decades to see how that plays out. With the right preparation, a border poll could pass in the next 10-15 years.
I don’t see Scotland voting for independence. The voted against it last time because a majority feared that Scotland would be worse off outside of the UK.
Unfortunately, post Brexit this argument is even easier to make. The vast majority of Scotland’s trade is with the rest of the UK. If they became independent, they’d have to close their border with England if they wanted to join the single market, let alone the EU.
That added economic uncertainty will probably strengthen the pro-unity vote more than outrage over Brexit will strengthen the independence vote.
Reunification will happen before Scottish independence
If they want Scotland and NI to stay they have a funny way of showing it, considering they treat them as irrelevant and don’t respect their opinions.
Oh no…..anyway
United Ireland will happen first
If Scotland takes the middle way by unifying with Northern Ireland, that is, by staying within the UK but extending the NI Protocol to cover Scotland, then they would get the best of both worlds. Also, it’s the DUP’s last, best hope for staving off Irish unification a little longer.
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I’d guess Westminster cares a whole lot more about Scotland than a United ireland
Great Britain would love to be rid of Northern Ireland, it’s an economic blackhole for the Exchequer and an endless source of problems.
The BREXIT debates and deals over the last couple of years I’ve demonstrated to unionists that the people of mainland Britain to not really care about their union…… well not nearly as much as the Unionists do.
Also with the *projected* demographic shifts in the North unionism will become more and more irrelevant as time goes on.
​
(Edits in italic from speech to text mistake.)
Westminster cares about Ireland uniting? Who wrote that, the DUP?
Anand Menon didn’t say what is reported in BelTel.
“Not quite what I said. Trying to draw lessons from Brexit I said we spoke a lot about EU’s fear of emulation shaping their attitude and there might – might – be such a concern over NI following Scotland which might shape UK attits in negots with Scotland.”
https://twitter.com/anandmenon1/status/1579375641237295105?s=46&t=X3Tgv_q2ZKnhUrvo4vkBEw
Ireland’s economic trajectory was one of the narratives used by the Yes campaign in the indyref. They also pointed out how similar the arguments against Scottish independence matched the arguments against Ireland’s secession.
I actually think Irish unification is likely to happen much sooner. In NI, unification is a conversation that isn’t ‘owned’ by SF the way independence is by the SNP. The complications caused by Brexit – but which unification could fix – have tangible impacts on people’s daily lives, whereas in Scotland the biggest problem that independence ‘solves’ is the spectre of Conservative national government.
The 2014 referendum politically mobilised younger people (the way the repeal/marriage referendums did here) and their experience may have ripple effects in the future, but it’ll take decades to see how that plays out. With the right preparation, a border poll could pass in the next 10-15 years.
I don’t see Scotland voting for independence. The voted against it last time because a majority feared that Scotland would be worse off outside of the UK.
Unfortunately, post Brexit this argument is even easier to make. The vast majority of Scotland’s trade is with the rest of the UK. If they became independent, they’d have to close their border with England if they wanted to join the single market, let alone the EU.
That added economic uncertainty will probably strengthen the pro-unity vote more than outrage over Brexit will strengthen the independence vote.
Reunification will happen before Scottish independence
If they want Scotland and NI to stay they have a funny way of showing it, considering they treat them as irrelevant and don’t respect their opinions.
Oh no…..anyway
United Ireland will happen first
If Scotland takes the middle way by unifying with Northern Ireland, that is, by staying within the UK but extending the NI Protocol to cover Scotland, then they would get the best of both worlds. Also, it’s the DUP’s last, best hope for staving off Irish unification a little longer.