I made a website that predicts how long a UK car will last for free. Just type in a registration number and get a prediction back.

25 comments

  1. Earlier this year in my evenings I collected millions of UK cars MOT histories from the DVLA and made a machine learning model to predict how long a car in the UK is likely to last. I put it onto a website so people can use it for free as a bit of fun! How long does it reckon your car will last?

  4. Interesting, I ran my cars number

    It’s saying that my 2015 car will last another 2 years.

    I can see it lasting at least 5.

    Does the AI account for newer cars being more durable than older models?

  5. This is pretty cool.

    Though the logic behind major comments on MOT history is kinda loose – you get those things fixed immediately or the car gets scrapped.

    Maybe there’s a way to see if there’s a chain of major things in a row, suggesting constant repairs or establishing a pattern?

    Just a suggestion 🙂

  6. Less than 3 years, but the negatives about MOT tests sadly come from poor MOT test facilities. Including a complete suspension overhaul required from Halfords MOT, took it to a different workshop and no faults with the car at all (except upside down headlight).

  7. Me who spend vast amounts of money on my mx5, got it through its MOT with zero advisors for the first time since 2016 (legally) garages the car, only drives to car shows: less than one year.

    P.s I get it, it goes by averages but its still funny

  9. But taking MOT fails that have then been fixed to pass the MOT should extend the life surely?

    Mine failed on a lower control arm last MOT (basically a couple of bushes) and the whole part was replaced. That’s another 10 years of use.

    The type of advisory is deeper learning I suppose, I don’t know how hard that is to code.

  10. This car will last less than 3 years yet is full of positives? there is 1 negative which is my windscreen wiper had to get replaced as it didnt fully clear the window and left a streak.

  12. Cool idea, the site obviously doesn’t know that the repeat issue on my MOT is just a broken dipstick, so I apreciate it saying why it gives the estimate it does so the user can take that into consideration.

  13. 3-4 years on my 23 year old motorbike. Nice.

    Less than a year on my car. Boooo

    Long long time on the Mrs Suzuki swift. .yay

  15. I checked mine and it’s spot on, well done ! I believe i increased the life expectancy now, as i had a major overhaul on the car, and it’s costed nearly £2k, for a £1k car, but i’m confident it’ll last another 5-6 years hopefully

  17. I think you’ve posted this before?

    I’ve certainly seen this exact website before

    I entered the number plate of my current car : 7 years old and has never had an advisory on a single MOT

    The result? “Will last less than 5 years”

    I then entered the number plate of a car that I had scrapped in 2012, and obviously it had not been taxed or MOT’d for 10 years.

    The result? “Will last 5 more years”

    So I don’t know what “AI” you’re using, but I would suggest that it needs more work.

    Edit : yes you have posted this same thing, 3 months ago. And [here is the comment I posted last time](https://www.reddit.com/r/CasualUK/comments/w56a78/i_made_a_website_that_predicts_how_long_a_uk_car/ih6ads1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3). At least the result for my current car now says “less than 5 years” whereas previously it said “less than 3 years”.

  18. I take this with a pinch of salt. My reg shows less than 1 year remaining – with a 30% MOT failure rate. It’s a classic Mini

    However every MOT failure has been rectified. Meaning the car is lasting longer. Not everyone would do this though so it can depend on the type of car and owner.

    For example I had an advisory last year for “Nearside Front Shock absorbers has light misting of oil”. That’s been fixed with two new shocks. The system cannot easily tell this.

    7 ‘Fail’ faults back in the 07-08 MOT, it’s still going in 22-23.

    I will say though it’s nice to see a more visual representation of the car’s history.

  20. Quality little website, it knew that my 2008 Ka should already be dead even with 56,000 miles. Nice to see it predicts another few years for my golf, I’m determined to crack the 200k mark before it dies.

  21. My 28 year old Skyline has 3 more years apparently… Not if I have any say 🙂

    And my 32 year old VW T3 has 2 years as does my 50 year old T2

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    I’m thinking this loses some accuracy then when doing very old cars and cars that are being actively maintained by enthusiast. Not sure how you could train for that.

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    EDIT: I see the problem, It can’t account for a car being restored of course. Which all 3 of mine have been and all 3 have more than 10 years of life in them yet easily.

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    Good program though, if a little pessimistic 🙂

  22. “AutoPredict expects this car to last less than 1 more year”

    My 20yo tank of an audi thinks otherwise

  23. I don’t think this works well for classic cars. I’ve put in details of five that are owned by myself or friends and says they have less than one year left. This is clearly not going to happen as all are well looked after and are appreciating in value.

    It seems to have a weighing for average age a car reaching and knocks a car for reaching past that? This is not always accurate as you should disregard how many were scrapped 10 years ago in looking at how long a 30 year old car will last now.

    For example, maybe look at how many were 30 LAST year, and see what percentage made it to 31 this year.

  24. Given that my car is 6 years old and only has 58k miles on the clock I can’t help thinking that the 3 years left calculation was a tad pessimistic!

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