Dáil seat projections for October 2022: Sinn Féin 64 (+28) Fine Gael 36 (+2) Fianna Fáil 35 (-2) Independents 11 (-10) PBP/Solidarity 5 (nc) Social Democrats 4 (-2) Labour 3 (-2) Green Party 2 (-10) Aontú 0 (-1) Right2Change 0 (-1)

13 comments

  5. SF need to make sure they communicate how the votes are to be assigned for their people. Not too many years ago Donegal lost a good TD due to people not knowing how to vote. Ended up with 1 SF TD instead of atleast the 2 we could have had.

    Edit: I’m not a SF supporter anymore but the man who lost his seat was a good man and done a lot for the area. Lucky turned out having the title of TD didn’t matter, he still cared.

  6. I am prepared to look stupid here but I can’t see the greens losing 10.. There are too many middle class people with guilty Conscious along with the youth who are environmental and will give them.2s after SF will prevent a wipe out..

    FF only loosing 2.. I don’t believe it, or at least I don’t want to believe it.

    SF have some work to do to get 64, the absolutely Fcuked up their vote management in 16.. Most likely won’t make that mistake again

  7. I would genuinely be interested to see a FF/SF coalition. I think SF badly need to be given a go (for good or ill) to finally normalise and integrate them, but I think FF would be needed to smooth them out a bit.

    Also: not a notion that 10 indos lose seats.

  8. Easily achievable for SF with good candidate selection and vote management. They need to stay in the chase long enough to pick up the last seats in constituencies. Last time around they had too few candidates and by default the last seats went to left-leaning candidates in PBP, the Greens, Soc Dems etc

    Greens will be hammered but that has happened before and they recovered. They are a policy led party and will see the loss of TDs as worth it if they have gained policy wise.

    PBP will do well to keep that number of seats if SF run a good candidate selection and manage their vote.

    Independents are not predictable. Purely local issue driven and elected on the back of anger/populism/clientalism. They could go down or up – impossible to know but the Fitzmaurices, Healy Raes, Lowrys, Collins etc won’t lose too much sleep about a poll like this. There are some shaky Ind seats though.

    FG will do well to increase by a few and FF will do very well to just drop a few. But you know what – nothing will happen if people don’t vote and older folk tend to vote more than younger, rural more than urban etc.

    If you want change or even if you want more of the same get out and vote!

  9. I’d be surprised to see Independents lose as many seats, although I think if Sinn Fein run a campaign of having many candidates run in each constituency like Fine Gael did, then that may take away left leaning candidates that won votes that would have went to potential SF candidates. I can definitely see Fianna Fail losing more seats, they don’t have a strong party identity anymore and the days of winning seats as a catch all party are over.
    I’m interested to see what scandal will come out closer to GE time to discourage Sinn Fein voters.

  10. How does this statistical model work? Unlike say the UK, Irish polling never includes seat projections as it’s basically impossible to work out how transfers will work under STV with multiple member constituencies. As a result trying to predict seat numbers based on 1st choice voting percentages is usually a fools errand. You could try to predict based on previous transfers in past elections but that seems to be rife with error.

    Curious to see what they’ve done here as you could probably predict who would win the 1st seat in most constituencies with a reasonable level of confidence. However, any subsequent seats would seem to be beyond the realms of polling. If someone has managed to crack this with accuracy I’d love to see it.

  11. I can’t see Fianna Fail only losing 2 seats. Too many of the independents are FF gene pool and in an election where people are angry with the government much of what’s left of the traditional FF vote will migrate towards them. I think you could knock 5 off the FF total and add that to the Independents.

    I think Sinn Fein will manage their vote very carefully this time. The dead weight embarrassing candidates (e.g. Browne in Tipperary) will be called into a meeting and told would they like to keep their seat or their kneecaps. The party will have young inspiring candidates running along side well known and established names. And they will push a message of green Revolution (and not the environmental type). Honestly I can’t see them getting less than 70 seats.

    And I can see PBP being the surprise package and doubling their seats. There is a lot of anger out there and they are the most angry of the parties. They won’t top any polls. But they will pick up a lot of protest down ballot preferences and in last seat battles they will pick up more transfers than FF or FG.

    I think between them SF and PBP are very close to an overall majority right now. Two more years of inflation, recession, war, job losses, housing crisis etc and I think they will get the majority in 2024.

  12. Hope I don’t upset anyone here but I hope SF win the next election. I cant see these clowns winning again. Probably a stupid question but does anyone know if I can I somehow vote while living abroad? I want to come home really badly. 💔

  13. It’s obviously too early to say but
    -I doubt Tobin loses his seat
    -I also doubt Labour does THAT badly like alot of the seats they hold now (except Dublin Bay North and DBS and Kelly’s seat) are safe. Kelly I don’t think loses his seat with FF being so weak and I doubt Bacik loses DBS. I could see them lose DBN though on a bad night

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