[SS from the article by Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine]
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark ultimatum. In a number of recent statements, he has demanded that the United States make “reliable and firm legal guarantees” that NATO will not expand eastward—or else, his entourage has hinted, Russia will invade Ukraine. Coming at a time when Russia is massing military forces along the Ukrainian border and stymieing peace talks to end the war in the Donbas region, Putin’s demand seems to offer a tempting prospect for the West: in exchange for merely cementing the alliance’s status quo, a deadly European war could come to an end and a new, even more devastating conflict could be avoided.
But it is foolish to think that providing such a guarantee would make Putin any less aggressive. History shows that pledges of neutrality by Ukraine or any other country in the region do nothing to abate Putin’s appetite; rather, they feed it. The best way to respond to such ultimatums is to ignore them altogether.
What cannot be ignored, however, are Putin’s increasingly aggressive intentions. Not only is a new large-scale invasion of Ukraine now on the table; Putin also hopes ultimately to rearrange Europe’s security architecture to the detriment of the West. For too long, the West has declined to take Putin’s ambitions seriously and responded with delay, indecision, and weakness. It is time to meet them with strength.”
[deleted]
Maybe the West can power Europe with gaslighting.
>Russia planned a blitzkrieg with the ultimate goal of dividing Ukraine in half and establishing a puppet state called Novorossiya in Ukraine’s eight eastern regions. But Putin greatly underestimated Ukrainian resolve
This is the rewriting of history to the point of fantasy, but it’s become canon in Ukraine to soften the defeat.
The war in Donbass has started in April 2014, while direct Russian military intervention came in June of the same year. The Russian military was obviously OK with sitting back and watching the pro Russian militia retreat from the territories they held, only intervening to prevent the collapse of the two separatist republics.
Hardly a blitzkrieg to take half of Ukraine.
Ultimately, it is up to Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia, to look closely at their own military competency.
d
And get rid of any military officers that are not competent.
And make sure local militias are well developed and well run.
Just a reminder, the reason that the Romanovs and the Social Democrats collapse in 1915-18 was exactly this, that the Romanovs put officers in charge of the war who were not only incompetent, but were carrying out policies on the war front that did not deploy local militias and local defenses. And were unwilling to carry out strategic withdrawals of formal forces, and leave behind local resistances.
Miracle on the Vistula part 2 Ukrainian Boogaloo
>DMYTRO KULEBA is Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
Is writing shitty articles his full time job now?
>Russia is a master of selling lies, and its illegitimate demands for guarantees and one-sided concessions are just that. But we don’t have to buy what we’re being sold—or even acknowledge the offer. The West shouldn’t appease Russia by agreeing to negotiate over NATO, nor should it give Russia the satisfaction of rejecting its ultimatums. Rather, the West should simply ignore them, continuing to hold further rounds of talks while refusing to bow to Putin’s ultimatums on Ukraine and NATO.
This has been the Ukrainian approach for eight years, spanning two governments. Kick the can down the road, ignore the problem.
Now they’re on the brink of getting invaded. Apparently, some problems won’t go away on their own.
>Meanwhile, the United States and its European allies should strengthen their efforts to deter Russia. Unlike appeasement, deterrence has a successful track record. In the spring of 2021, for example, Russia began its massive buildup along the Ukrainian border and spouted belligerent rhetoric threatening to destroy Ukraine. Ukraine’s partners signaled staunch support for Ukraine in public and behind closed doors, and Moscow was forced to ease tensions.
The Russian military activity in the spring is not separate from this buildup, it’s a part of the Russian military preparing for a contingency of a large scale invasion. A dress rehearsal.
There is no set of magic incantations that “forced” Moscow to back down then but is yet to be used now.
>The first component is to send clear political signals to Moscow. That means making it plain that Ukraine is part of the West and a future member of the EU and NATO and that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable. The second part of the plan involves consequences: in the worst-case scenario of an invasion, the West will enact severe sanctions. Crafting these devastating measures now could spare the West the need to apply them later.
>The third and final part of the plan is to deepen military assistance to Ukraine. We have our own capable military forces in Ukraine, and we don’t expect Western countries to put boots on the ground. We do, however, need more weapons to be able to defend ourselves. Everything counts, from ammunition to medical equipment, but we are in particular need of air and missile defenses.
I don’t understand this line of thinking by the Ukrainians.
From a Western point of view, it makes sense. The collective West doesn’t have to yield to Russian demands, in fact it might be politically more prudent to ignore them and let things fall as they may.
But Russian invasion of Ukraine is not an existential problem for the West. They can afford the brinksmanship, and they can settle for imposing costs on Russia, both through sanctions and arming Ukraine.
I just don’t understand how this makes sense from the Ukrainian perspective. Why does it matter if the West imposes costs if Ukraine as we know it is no more?
Is there not enough war in the world?
Ukraine is not going to give up with out a fight.
Let us not forget what happens when you hesitate to stand up for your allies. History tells us that negotiating with dictators often leads to betrayal. Showing weakness just allows the eastern superpowers to expand and become greater. With mutually assured destruction as a deterence, any leader in their right mind should think twice about showing aggression if they know that the west WILL intervene. Putin is just testing the water with Ukraine, seeing how far he can stretch the boundaries with NATO, in a very similar way to how Hitler tested the water with Chamberlain, and we all know how that went.
Why does this situation make me think of this ?
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
I feel like the hesitation is due to people fearing that the long peace is ending
Lesson learned: NEVER give up nuclear weapons when you have them
Let’s dig a 5km wide channel on the russian border and fill it with genetically modified alligators.
Ah yes ! Our good friend appeasement (aka doing nothing) that did wonders in the 30s.
As long as they treat Hungarian minority like shit, they don’t deserve our help.
Doesn’t this remind you of the [Anschluss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss) in a way? Terms like “Greater Germany”, “United Germans”. Putin’s talks about Novorussia (meaning Ukraine or parts of it in Russia’s control), Slavic peoples’ union.
And his regime. As much as they try to make everyone around them look like fascists, they themselves look like fascists.
And if history taught us anything, it’s never a good idea to submit to those regimes, regardless of official alliances, the quicker the counter-action, the better. Otherwise it’s gonna be a bloody war sooner than later (as if it’s not enough in Eastern Ukraine) and we’re all gonna be fucked and regret it once again and our grandchildren in the late 21st century are gonna speak like we do today about Nazi Germany and Hitler.
If we learned anything about history it’s that appeasement with dictators doesn’t work. Look what Neville chamberlain did with Hitler. He let him gut Austria and Czechoslovakia and in the end the war was not avoidable anyways, but Germany got a lot stronger and harder to beat in the process. Do not repeat the same mistake with Russia
Wonder how many easily-preventable wars it will take for people to understand that appeasement doesn’t work 🙂
FYI: Foreign Affairs is published by this organisation:
> The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), founded in 1921, is a United States nonprofit think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. It is headquartered in New York City, with an additional office in Massachusetts. Its membership, which numbers 5,103, has included senior politicians, numerous secretaries of state, CIA directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures.
> CFR meetings convene government officials, global business leaders and prominent members of the intelligence and foreign-policy community to discuss international issues. CFR has published the bi-monthly journal Foreign Affairs since 1922, and runs the David Rockefeller Studies Program, which influences foreign policy by making recommendations to the presidential administration and diplomatic community, testifying before Congress, interacting with the media, and publishing on foreign policy issues.
There’s been so many articles these last weeks about China wanting to invade Taiwan maybe and Russia moving into the Ukraine. What are the tangible signs that this is the case? Are they mobilizing extra forces? Deploying divisions and air/naval assets for offensive maneuvers? Building stockpiles of supplies and logistics etc.?
22 comments
[SS from the article by Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine]
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark ultimatum. In a number of recent statements, he has demanded that the United States make “reliable and firm legal guarantees” that NATO will not expand eastward—or else, his entourage has hinted, Russia will invade Ukraine. Coming at a time when Russia is massing military forces along the Ukrainian border and stymieing peace talks to end the war in the Donbas region, Putin’s demand seems to offer a tempting prospect for the West: in exchange for merely cementing the alliance’s status quo, a deadly European war could come to an end and a new, even more devastating conflict could be avoided.
But it is foolish to think that providing such a guarantee would make Putin any less aggressive. History shows that pledges of neutrality by Ukraine or any other country in the region do nothing to abate Putin’s appetite; rather, they feed it. The best way to respond to such ultimatums is to ignore them altogether.
What cannot be ignored, however, are Putin’s increasingly aggressive intentions. Not only is a new large-scale invasion of Ukraine now on the table; Putin also hopes ultimately to rearrange Europe’s security architecture to the detriment of the West. For too long, the West has declined to take Putin’s ambitions seriously and responded with delay, indecision, and weakness. It is time to meet them with strength.”
[deleted]
Maybe the West can power Europe with gaslighting.
>Russia planned a blitzkrieg with the ultimate goal of dividing Ukraine in half and establishing a puppet state called Novorossiya in Ukraine’s eight eastern regions. But Putin greatly underestimated Ukrainian resolve
This is the rewriting of history to the point of fantasy, but it’s become canon in Ukraine to soften the defeat.
The war in Donbass has started in April 2014, while direct Russian military intervention came in June of the same year. The Russian military was obviously OK with sitting back and watching the pro Russian militia retreat from the territories they held, only intervening to prevent the collapse of the two separatist republics.
Hardly a blitzkrieg to take half of Ukraine.
Ultimately, it is up to Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia, to look closely at their own military competency.
d
And get rid of any military officers that are not competent.
And make sure local militias are well developed and well run.
Just a reminder, the reason that the Romanovs and the Social Democrats collapse in 1915-18 was exactly this, that the Romanovs put officers in charge of the war who were not only incompetent, but were carrying out policies on the war front that did not deploy local militias and local defenses. And were unwilling to carry out strategic withdrawals of formal forces, and leave behind local resistances.
Miracle on the Vistula part 2 Ukrainian Boogaloo
>DMYTRO KULEBA is Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
Is writing shitty articles his full time job now?
>Russia is a master of selling lies, and its illegitimate demands for guarantees and one-sided concessions are just that. But we don’t have to buy what we’re being sold—or even acknowledge the offer. The West shouldn’t appease Russia by agreeing to negotiate over NATO, nor should it give Russia the satisfaction of rejecting its ultimatums. Rather, the West should simply ignore them, continuing to hold further rounds of talks while refusing to bow to Putin’s ultimatums on Ukraine and NATO.
This has been the Ukrainian approach for eight years, spanning two governments. Kick the can down the road, ignore the problem.
Now they’re on the brink of getting invaded. Apparently, some problems won’t go away on their own.
>Meanwhile, the United States and its European allies should strengthen their efforts to deter Russia. Unlike appeasement, deterrence has a successful track record. In the spring of 2021, for example, Russia began its massive buildup along the Ukrainian border and spouted belligerent rhetoric threatening to destroy Ukraine. Ukraine’s partners signaled staunch support for Ukraine in public and behind closed doors, and Moscow was forced to ease tensions.
The Russian military activity in the spring is not separate from this buildup, it’s a part of the Russian military preparing for a contingency of a large scale invasion. A dress rehearsal.
There is no set of magic incantations that “forced” Moscow to back down then but is yet to be used now.
>The first component is to send clear political signals to Moscow. That means making it plain that Ukraine is part of the West and a future member of the EU and NATO and that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable. The second part of the plan involves consequences: in the worst-case scenario of an invasion, the West will enact severe sanctions. Crafting these devastating measures now could spare the West the need to apply them later.
>The third and final part of the plan is to deepen military assistance to Ukraine. We have our own capable military forces in Ukraine, and we don’t expect Western countries to put boots on the ground. We do, however, need more weapons to be able to defend ourselves. Everything counts, from ammunition to medical equipment, but we are in particular need of air and missile defenses.
I don’t understand this line of thinking by the Ukrainians.
From a Western point of view, it makes sense. The collective West doesn’t have to yield to Russian demands, in fact it might be politically more prudent to ignore them and let things fall as they may.
But Russian invasion of Ukraine is not an existential problem for the West. They can afford the brinksmanship, and they can settle for imposing costs on Russia, both through sanctions and arming Ukraine.
I just don’t understand how this makes sense from the Ukrainian perspective. Why does it matter if the West imposes costs if Ukraine as we know it is no more?
Is there not enough war in the world?
Ukraine is not going to give up with out a fight.
Let us not forget what happens when you hesitate to stand up for your allies. History tells us that negotiating with dictators often leads to betrayal. Showing weakness just allows the eastern superpowers to expand and become greater. With mutually assured destruction as a deterence, any leader in their right mind should think twice about showing aggression if they know that the west WILL intervene. Putin is just testing the water with Ukraine, seeing how far he can stretch the boundaries with NATO, in a very similar way to how Hitler tested the water with Chamberlain, and we all know how that went.
Why does this situation make me think of this ?
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
I feel like the hesitation is due to people fearing that the long peace is ending
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances)
Lesson learned: NEVER give up nuclear weapons when you have them
Let’s dig a 5km wide channel on the russian border and fill it with genetically modified alligators.
Ah yes ! Our good friend appeasement (aka doing nothing) that did wonders in the 30s.
As long as they treat Hungarian minority like shit, they don’t deserve our help.
Doesn’t this remind you of the [Anschluss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss) in a way? Terms like “Greater Germany”, “United Germans”. Putin’s talks about Novorussia (meaning Ukraine or parts of it in Russia’s control), Slavic peoples’ union.
And his regime. As much as they try to make everyone around them look like fascists, they themselves look like fascists.
And if history taught us anything, it’s never a good idea to submit to those regimes, regardless of official alliances, the quicker the counter-action, the better. Otherwise it’s gonna be a bloody war sooner than later (as if it’s not enough in Eastern Ukraine) and we’re all gonna be fucked and regret it once again and our grandchildren in the late 21st century are gonna speak like we do today about Nazi Germany and Hitler.
If we learned anything about history it’s that appeasement with dictators doesn’t work. Look what Neville chamberlain did with Hitler. He let him gut Austria and Czechoslovakia and in the end the war was not avoidable anyways, but Germany got a lot stronger and harder to beat in the process. Do not repeat the same mistake with Russia
Wonder how many easily-preventable wars it will take for people to understand that appeasement doesn’t work 🙂
FYI: Foreign Affairs is published by this organisation:
[Council on Foreign Relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_on_Foreign_Relations)
> The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), founded in 1921, is a United States nonprofit think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. It is headquartered in New York City, with an additional office in Massachusetts. Its membership, which numbers 5,103, has included senior politicians, numerous secretaries of state, CIA directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures.
> CFR meetings convene government officials, global business leaders and prominent members of the intelligence and foreign-policy community to discuss international issues. CFR has published the bi-monthly journal Foreign Affairs since 1922, and runs the David Rockefeller Studies Program, which influences foreign policy by making recommendations to the presidential administration and diplomatic community, testifying before Congress, interacting with the media, and publishing on foreign policy issues.
There’s been so many articles these last weeks about China wanting to invade Taiwan maybe and Russia moving into the Ukraine. What are the tangible signs that this is the case? Are they mobilizing extra forces? Deploying divisions and air/naval assets for offensive maneuvers? Building stockpiles of supplies and logistics etc.?