Our European friends across the water are not the only ones taking pleasure – and sense of vindication – in the turmoil that has swept Britain in recent weeks.
Also finding it hard to wipe the smile off her face is Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, for whom the economic and political chaos emanating from Westminster is an unexpected gift; it seems to make the case for divorce better than any number of months of sweat and toil on the campaign trail.
She will of course be disappointed that Boris threw in the towel. So unpopular is Mr Johnson north of the border, that his second coming as prime minister might well have sealed the deal in Sturgeon’s favour. As it is, the comparative stability and return to rational decision-making promised by Rishi Sunak, even if it does mean a degree of fiscal austerity, will have somewhat taken the wind out of her sails.
In any case, virtually unnoticed down south amid all last week’s hullabaloo, the Scottish government published its latest stab at trying to persuade voters that economic prospects would be enhanced, not undermined, by an independent Scotland – “Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence”.
To be honest, I’m not sure it takes us much further. Rich in natural resources and skills, Scotland could no doubt theoretically survive and even prosper as an independent country, though it would require exceptional governance, for which there is little evidence in the Scottish National Party.
Yet the challenges of getting from here to there remain daunting in the extreme. Brexit may have made the political case for independence easier to argue, but it has made the economic one considerably harder. As an article in The Press and Journal put it: “If Brexit was bad, Scexit would be catastrophic.”
If both jurisdictions had still been a part of the European Union, it would have been comparatively straightforward. Scotland would have lost nothing in terms of market access to the rest of the UK by becoming a separate country. Now that the UK is outside Europe’s single market and customs union, it makes matters much more difficult.
After 315 years of union, Scotland is just too integrated into the rest of the UK economy for independence to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Scots a lot poorer.
It can be done, as Ireland has demonstrated. Once joined at the hip to the UK economy, Ireland has halved its dependence on trade with the rest of these islands over the last 20 years.
bottom of the article to get it every Tuesday
Jeremy Warner
25 October 2022 • 6:22pm
Jeremy Warner
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon speaks to the media during her visit to Buchanan Street Residential Children’s Home to mark Care Experienced Week on October 24, 2022 in Edinburgh, Scotland
Scotland relies heavily on subsidies from the South to maintain current levels of spending
Our European friends across the water are not the only ones taking pleasure – and sense of vindication – in the turmoil that has swept Britain in recent weeks.
Also finding it hard to wipe the smile off her face is Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, for whom the economic and political chaos emanating from Westminster is an unexpected gift; it seems to make the case for divorce better than any number of months of sweat and toil on the campaign trail.
She will of course be disappointed that Boris threw in the towel. So unpopular is Mr Johnson north of the border, that his second coming as prime minister might well have sealed the deal in Sturgeon’s favour. As it is, the comparative stability and return to rational decision-making promised by Rishi Sunak, even if it does mean a degree of fiscal austerity, will have somewhat taken the wind out of her sails.
In any case, virtually unnoticed down south amid all last week’s hullabaloo, the Scottish government published its latest stab at trying to persuade voters that economic prospects would be enhanced, not undermined, by an independent Scotland – “Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence”.
To be honest, I’m not sure it takes us much further. Rich in natural resources and skills, Scotland could no doubt theoretically survive and even prosper as an independent country, though it would require exceptional governance, for which there is little evidence in the Scottish National Party.
Yet the challenges of getting from here to there remain daunting in the extreme. Brexit may have made the political case for independence easier to argue, but it has made the economic one considerably harder. As an article in The Press and Journal put it: “If Brexit was bad, Scexit would be catastrophic.”
If both jurisdictions had still been a part of the European Union, it would have been comparatively straightforward. Scotland would have lost nothing in terms of market access to the rest of the UK by becoming a separate country. Now that the UK is outside Europe’s single market and customs union, it makes matters much more difficult.
After 315 years of union, Scotland is just too integrated into the rest of the UK economy for independence to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Scots a lot poorer.
It can be done, as Ireland has demonstrated. Once joined at the hip to the UK economy, Ireland has halved its dependence on trade with the rest of these islands over the last 20 years.
But it takes a long time, and Ireland has had the luxury during its transition away from the UK of unfettered access to both the old UK market and the newer European ones.
In Scotland’s case, it would be a sudden, wrenching separation. Britain’s divorce from the EU would seem like a stroll in the park by comparison. I’d expected to see at least something by way of reassurance in last week’s economic plan, but there was nothing other than assertion to answer concerns of this sort.
What is more, the case for independence is made on the grounds that it would give Scotland the freedom to become an even bigger state, higher tax economy. Given that Scotland relies heavily on subsidies from the south to maintain current levels of spending, it is far from clear where the money to do this is going to come from.
Trade is just the half of it. The other key challenges are in the fiscal and monetary arenas.
The idea would be that Scotland continues to use the pound as a stopgap while it attempts to set up its own, independent currency. This could take many years.
In the meantime, however, Scotland would move rapidly to re-establish membership of the European Union, so as to take advantage of its markets to compensate for barriers with the rest of the UK.
If the Telegraph cares about Scotland staying as part of Britain they need to keep their shit to themselves.
I think it may be best to stop having a go at Sturgeon and Scotland. Perhaps work with them to see if independence is viable rather than shout abuse at her/them, say Scotland is a massive drain on the finances but then essentially keep them prisoner…
It is very childish. I would hope the UK Government could be adults about it, if Scotland don’t want to be in the UK let them go. Revolutionary concept but maybe we should be helping them achieve it if they vote for it, without subsidising them when they are independent, rather than punish them mercilessly? Isn’t that what the EU literally just did to us and we complained about it?
I am English and now even I am getting fed up with it to be honest.
*Scotland is just too integrated into the rest of the UK economy for independence to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Scots a lot poorer.*
The UK is just too integrated into the rest of the EU economy for Brexit to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Brits a lot poorer.
One union good, leaving too expensive. Other union bad, costs of leaving = PrOjEcT FeAR!1!1!
Ok, Telegraph. Time for your medicine.
Whatever about Scotland, I really don’t see the point sharing Telegraph articles. As if it represents “news” anymore.
The Barclay brothers have just turned it into Tory Pravda.
Conservatives talking about “magical” thinking after the last 12 years, get in the bin.
6 comments
Our European friends across the water are not the only ones taking pleasure – and sense of vindication – in the turmoil that has swept Britain in recent weeks.
Also finding it hard to wipe the smile off her face is Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, for whom the economic and political chaos emanating from Westminster is an unexpected gift; it seems to make the case for divorce better than any number of months of sweat and toil on the campaign trail.
She will of course be disappointed that Boris threw in the towel. So unpopular is Mr Johnson north of the border, that his second coming as prime minister might well have sealed the deal in Sturgeon’s favour. As it is, the comparative stability and return to rational decision-making promised by Rishi Sunak, even if it does mean a degree of fiscal austerity, will have somewhat taken the wind out of her sails.
In any case, virtually unnoticed down south amid all last week’s hullabaloo, the Scottish government published its latest stab at trying to persuade voters that economic prospects would be enhanced, not undermined, by an independent Scotland – “Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence”.
To be honest, I’m not sure it takes us much further. Rich in natural resources and skills, Scotland could no doubt theoretically survive and even prosper as an independent country, though it would require exceptional governance, for which there is little evidence in the Scottish National Party.
Yet the challenges of getting from here to there remain daunting in the extreme. Brexit may have made the political case for independence easier to argue, but it has made the economic one considerably harder. As an article in The Press and Journal put it: “If Brexit was bad, Scexit would be catastrophic.”
If both jurisdictions had still been a part of the European Union, it would have been comparatively straightforward. Scotland would have lost nothing in terms of market access to the rest of the UK by becoming a separate country. Now that the UK is outside Europe’s single market and customs union, it makes matters much more difficult.
After 315 years of union, Scotland is just too integrated into the rest of the UK economy for independence to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Scots a lot poorer.
It can be done, as Ireland has demonstrated. Once joined at the hip to the UK economy, Ireland has halved its dependence on trade with the rest of these islands over the last 20 years.
bottom of the article to get it every Tuesday
Jeremy Warner
25 October 2022 • 6:22pm
Jeremy Warner
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon speaks to the media during her visit to Buchanan Street Residential Children’s Home to mark Care Experienced Week on October 24, 2022 in Edinburgh, Scotland
Scotland relies heavily on subsidies from the South to maintain current levels of spending
Our European friends across the water are not the only ones taking pleasure – and sense of vindication – in the turmoil that has swept Britain in recent weeks.
Also finding it hard to wipe the smile off her face is Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, for whom the economic and political chaos emanating from Westminster is an unexpected gift; it seems to make the case for divorce better than any number of months of sweat and toil on the campaign trail.
She will of course be disappointed that Boris threw in the towel. So unpopular is Mr Johnson north of the border, that his second coming as prime minister might well have sealed the deal in Sturgeon’s favour. As it is, the comparative stability and return to rational decision-making promised by Rishi Sunak, even if it does mean a degree of fiscal austerity, will have somewhat taken the wind out of her sails.
In any case, virtually unnoticed down south amid all last week’s hullabaloo, the Scottish government published its latest stab at trying to persuade voters that economic prospects would be enhanced, not undermined, by an independent Scotland – “Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence”.
To be honest, I’m not sure it takes us much further. Rich in natural resources and skills, Scotland could no doubt theoretically survive and even prosper as an independent country, though it would require exceptional governance, for which there is little evidence in the Scottish National Party.
Yet the challenges of getting from here to there remain daunting in the extreme. Brexit may have made the political case for independence easier to argue, but it has made the economic one considerably harder. As an article in The Press and Journal put it: “If Brexit was bad, Scexit would be catastrophic.”
If both jurisdictions had still been a part of the European Union, it would have been comparatively straightforward. Scotland would have lost nothing in terms of market access to the rest of the UK by becoming a separate country. Now that the UK is outside Europe’s single market and customs union, it makes matters much more difficult.
After 315 years of union, Scotland is just too integrated into the rest of the UK economy for independence to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Scots a lot poorer.
It can be done, as Ireland has demonstrated. Once joined at the hip to the UK economy, Ireland has halved its dependence on trade with the rest of these islands over the last 20 years.
But it takes a long time, and Ireland has had the luxury during its transition away from the UK of unfettered access to both the old UK market and the newer European ones.
In Scotland’s case, it would be a sudden, wrenching separation. Britain’s divorce from the EU would seem like a stroll in the park by comparison. I’d expected to see at least something by way of reassurance in last week’s economic plan, but there was nothing other than assertion to answer concerns of this sort.
What is more, the case for independence is made on the grounds that it would give Scotland the freedom to become an even bigger state, higher tax economy. Given that Scotland relies heavily on subsidies from the south to maintain current levels of spending, it is far from clear where the money to do this is going to come from.
Trade is just the half of it. The other key challenges are in the fiscal and monetary arenas.
The idea would be that Scotland continues to use the pound as a stopgap while it attempts to set up its own, independent currency. This could take many years.
In the meantime, however, Scotland would move rapidly to re-establish membership of the European Union, so as to take advantage of its markets to compensate for barriers with the rest of the UK.
If the Telegraph cares about Scotland staying as part of Britain they need to keep their shit to themselves.
I think it may be best to stop having a go at Sturgeon and Scotland. Perhaps work with them to see if independence is viable rather than shout abuse at her/them, say Scotland is a massive drain on the finances but then essentially keep them prisoner…
It is very childish. I would hope the UK Government could be adults about it, if Scotland don’t want to be in the UK let them go. Revolutionary concept but maybe we should be helping them achieve it if they vote for it, without subsidising them when they are independent, rather than punish them mercilessly? Isn’t that what the EU literally just did to us and we complained about it?
I am English and now even I am getting fed up with it to be honest.
*Scotland is just too integrated into the rest of the UK economy for independence to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Scots a lot poorer.*
The UK is just too integrated into the rest of the EU economy for Brexit to be, even with the best will in the world, anything other than an extremely painful transition that would in the short to medium term, render Brits a lot poorer.
One union good, leaving too expensive. Other union bad, costs of leaving = PrOjEcT FeAR!1!1!
Ok, Telegraph. Time for your medicine.
Whatever about Scotland, I really don’t see the point sharing Telegraph articles. As if it represents “news” anymore.
The Barclay brothers have just turned it into Tory Pravda.
Conservatives talking about “magical” thinking after the last 12 years, get in the bin.