Why is the UK struggling more than other countries?
In isolation, a modest slide in the economy of 0.2% over three months might fall into the category of regrettable but unsurprising in the circumstances.
But looking ahead, the Bank of England and others anticipate that this is the first of a run of several quarters marking the start of a lengthy recession. And looking backwards now, it is very concerning that the UK economy remains smaller than just before the pandemic three years ago.
Not only is the UK the only major economy to be shrinking in the three months to September, but it is the only one not to have recovered in full the chunk of the economy lost during the pandemic. Amazingly, the UK still has an economy 0.4% smaller than in the quarter before the pandemic in Q4 2019.
That is not the case for the US (+4.2%), Canada, Italy or France, by some margin, and for Japan and Germany too. If forecasts are right about a prolonged recession, it could be half a decade without growth encompassing the whole of this Parliament, and the whole of the period since actual Brexit.
So yes there are many pressures that are global, from Covid to the European energy squeeze. But there are real questions now as to why the UK has been hit more than most.
And while some of the monthly hit in September can be explained by the extra bank holiday, the hit from the mini-budget financial chaos only affected a few days of these figures.
The official rationale is that the UK is being buffeted both by the European energy shock arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and at the same time, by the US-style overheating jobs market.
While the EU is more physically dependent on actual supplies of Russian gas, the UK is more dependent on imported gas full stop, and the price paid for it has rocketed for everyone.
That energy shock has made the country unavoidably poorer, and yet, despite the weak economy, the UK is enduring significant labour supply challenges, holding it back more. Indeed the data shows “global challenges” are hitting the UK harder than other major economies – that Britain has a bespoke supply problem, worsening economic trade-offs.
The first year of the pandemic damaged the UK more than most economies. This was the textbook expectation from many economic experts of the government’s approach to post-Brexit policy. It is more difficult for small businesses, especially, to trade with Europe, and the UK, by design, now has more limited access to pools of European workers. As a result the economy is less productive, less resilient, less flexible and less responsive.
As interest rates continue to rise and taxes and spending are squeezed further at next week’s Autumn Statement, the economic pressures will only intensify. There are difficult trade-offs for all – the Bank of England, the government and of course households. But they cannot all be blamed on “global factors”.
So the experts that warned of the negative consequences of Brexit were correct after all?
Why are you spamming this Sub?
[deleted]
Brexit and a useless government.
Not difficult to work out.
Brexit and a useless government.
It’s not difficult to work out
Daily Brexit Ragebait on r/europe
the things that brexit idiots said was project fear came true. turns out, being the first country who basically put sanctions on itself is self harming.
and it is not over. no it will get worse. as of now, the only reason the UK has no major shortages of basically everything is, that they do not perform any meaningful import checks.
some weeks ago they made a test. they actually looked into the trucks. and basically everyone had some form of smuggling going on.
the UK promised to make this right, as they until now have been given some, undeserving, leeway in implementing these checks.
the UK is in the beginning of, what the bank of england says, will be the worst recession the UK had.
they need money at a time when tax income falls. the problem is that the real income of many working class citizens got squeezed so hard, 1 in 9 cant pay for the food they need.
now the tories need to find new taxable people. but they dont want to tax the rich and cant tax the poor, since they are basically blank already. they also cant really cut spending. the tories gutted the state so much, you have no flesh on the bone any more. and what they give, for example to the NHS, they force the NHS to pay expensive private firms.
they have more vacancies than unemployed people in the UK. that tends to happen if you say foreigners to piss of. they had fuel shortages because they had no truck drivers. it got so strange, older german people there got letters, asking them to become truck drievers. because some of them had old drivers licenses that allowed them to drive lorries.
they had to kill thousands of pigs because they had no butchers and had to import turkeys last winter (they are a mayor producer of turkey). they had food rotting on the fields.
and that is all just the beginning. I dont even know where to begin. basically every trade deal is a disaster or a copy paste of the European one. hell the Australian one allows Australian beef into the UK, while the UK farmers cant use the same techniques that are done in Australia, that will kill the beef producers in the UK.
so if you think it is bad now, oh boy oh boy, lets wait a few years. until the EU has pulled more and more of the EU banking out of london.
the only real short term solution is rejoining the single market. without any say in any laws of the single market. I bet that one will go down like fine wine there
I don’t see what the problem is, you should all just stop being poor
9 comments
Why is the UK struggling more than other countries?
In isolation, a modest slide in the economy of 0.2% over three months might fall into the category of regrettable but unsurprising in the circumstances.
But looking ahead, the Bank of England and others anticipate that this is the first of a run of several quarters marking the start of a lengthy recession. And looking backwards now, it is very concerning that the UK economy remains smaller than just before the pandemic three years ago.
Not only is the UK the only major economy to be shrinking in the three months to September, but it is the only one not to have recovered in full the chunk of the economy lost during the pandemic. Amazingly, the UK still has an economy 0.4% smaller than in the quarter before the pandemic in Q4 2019.
That is not the case for the US (+4.2%), Canada, Italy or France, by some margin, and for Japan and Germany too. If forecasts are right about a prolonged recession, it could be half a decade without growth encompassing the whole of this Parliament, and the whole of the period since actual Brexit.
So yes there are many pressures that are global, from Covid to the European energy squeeze. But there are real questions now as to why the UK has been hit more than most.
And while some of the monthly hit in September can be explained by the extra bank holiday, the hit from the mini-budget financial chaos only affected a few days of these figures.
The official rationale is that the UK is being buffeted both by the European energy shock arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and at the same time, by the US-style overheating jobs market.
While the EU is more physically dependent on actual supplies of Russian gas, the UK is more dependent on imported gas full stop, and the price paid for it has rocketed for everyone.
That energy shock has made the country unavoidably poorer, and yet, despite the weak economy, the UK is enduring significant labour supply challenges, holding it back more. Indeed the data shows “global challenges” are hitting the UK harder than other major economies – that Britain has a bespoke supply problem, worsening economic trade-offs.
The first year of the pandemic damaged the UK more than most economies. This was the textbook expectation from many economic experts of the government’s approach to post-Brexit policy. It is more difficult for small businesses, especially, to trade with Europe, and the UK, by design, now has more limited access to pools of European workers. As a result the economy is less productive, less resilient, less flexible and less responsive.
As interest rates continue to rise and taxes and spending are squeezed further at next week’s Autumn Statement, the economic pressures will only intensify. There are difficult trade-offs for all – the Bank of England, the government and of course households. But they cannot all be blamed on “global factors”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63596773
So the experts that warned of the negative consequences of Brexit were correct after all?
Why are you spamming this Sub?
[deleted]
Brexit and a useless government.
Not difficult to work out.
Brexit and a useless government.
It’s not difficult to work out
Daily Brexit Ragebait on r/europe
the things that brexit idiots said was project fear came true. turns out, being the first country who basically put sanctions on itself is self harming.
and it is not over. no it will get worse. as of now, the only reason the UK has no major shortages of basically everything is, that they do not perform any meaningful import checks.
some weeks ago they made a test. they actually looked into the trucks. and basically everyone had some form of smuggling going on.
the UK promised to make this right, as they until now have been given some, undeserving, leeway in implementing these checks.
the UK is in the beginning of, what the bank of england says, will be the worst recession the UK had.
they need money at a time when tax income falls. the problem is that the real income of many working class citizens got squeezed so hard, 1 in 9 cant pay for the food they need.
now the tories need to find new taxable people. but they dont want to tax the rich and cant tax the poor, since they are basically blank already. they also cant really cut spending. the tories gutted the state so much, you have no flesh on the bone any more. and what they give, for example to the NHS, they force the NHS to pay expensive private firms.
they have more vacancies than unemployed people in the UK. that tends to happen if you say foreigners to piss of. they had fuel shortages because they had no truck drivers. it got so strange, older german people there got letters, asking them to become truck drievers. because some of them had old drivers licenses that allowed them to drive lorries.
they had to kill thousands of pigs because they had no butchers and had to import turkeys last winter (they are a mayor producer of turkey). they had food rotting on the fields.
and that is all just the beginning. I dont even know where to begin. basically every trade deal is a disaster or a copy paste of the European one. hell the Australian one allows Australian beef into the UK, while the UK farmers cant use the same techniques that are done in Australia, that will kill the beef producers in the UK.
so if you think it is bad now, oh boy oh boy, lets wait a few years. until the EU has pulled more and more of the EU banking out of london.
the only real short term solution is rejoining the single market. without any say in any laws of the single market. I bet that one will go down like fine wine there
I don’t see what the problem is, you should all just stop being poor