>Rishi Sunak is planning to cut defence spending in real terms in the coming years in an apparent breach of the Conservative election manifesto.
>Next week, the Treasury is expected to announce that all departmental spending for the next two years will remain as previously agreed in the 2021 spending review.
>That means the Ministry of Defence budget will rise in cash terms from £47.9 billion this year to £48 billion in 2023 and then £48.6 billion in 2024. But inflation, currently 10 per cent, is eating into those budgets.
>Taking into account those prices means a real term defence spending cut in those years, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a leading defence think tank.
>It means that calls for a major uplift in defence spending in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year have been rebuffed by the Treasury.
>The 2019 Tory election manifesto promised on defence spending to “increase the budget by at least 0.5 per cent above inflation every year of the new Parliament”.
>That is undercut by the real term fall coming. But ministers will argue that by taking the average yearly rise across the five-year period that the promise will still be met.
>The backdrop could complicate Mr Sunak’s tough stance on Russia expected to be delivered at his first gathering of world leaders at the G20 summit in Bali.
>The Prime Minister is expected to double down on the UK’s condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine during the summit, which begins on Monday.
>Russia will be represented by Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, rather than President Vladimir Putin who has decided not to attend.
>There have been recent media reports that US officials have urged the Ukrainians to open up communication channels with the Kremlin, though Washington denied they were pushing for peace talks.
>A backlash on the lack of defence spending increases was emerging on Friday night.
>General Lord Richard Dannatt, the former head of the army, told The Telegraph: “The Government has to cut public expenditure in order to balance the books as it is reluctant to raise taxes, but it does seem incredible that with a land war in Europe it feels it can cut the defence budget.
>“Given that we have had 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent waived under defence planners’ noses, now to be cutting it to 2 per cent or under, it makes you wonder how on earth you can plan anything sensible for the future.”
>The Telegraph understands that inside the Ministry of Defence some discussions have already begun about whether the real terms spending cut means the army needs to become even smaller.
>Last year it was announced that the number of fully trained soldiers will be cut to 72,500, the smallest size of the UK army on record.
>It remains unclear whether Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, will stick by the target set by Liz Truss to spend three per cent of GDP on defence by 2030.
>The current Nato target is two per cent, which Britain has been exceeding. Boris Johnson had announced hopes to raise that target to 2.5 per cent before he left office earlier this year.
>But even if ministers say the three per cent target remains a broad ambition, no pathway to hitting the goal is expected to be set out in the Autumn Statement, to be announced on November 17.
>Analysis suggests that to reach the target the MoD budget would have to jump from around £48 billion this year to £93 billion in 2030, just as a major Whitehall spending squeeze is coming.
>Justifying the defence spending cuts could be politically complicated for Mr Hunt, who in his Tory leadership campaign this summer promised a major increase if he won.
>On Friday, Mr Hunt stressed the financial challenges ahead given soaring inflation and interest rates and new economic figures suggesting the forecasted UK recession has already begun.
>Mr Hunt said: “What we need is to put that plan in place. It’s not going to be easy, there are going to be some very difficult choices. I’ve used the word ‘eye-watering’ before and that’s the truth.”
>Sticking to the Spending Review decisions from 2021 means that department spending levels will stay as agreed in 2023 and 2024, despite inflation eating into the budgets.
>For the years of 2025, 2026 and 2027 the Treasury is not expected to announce departmental budgets next week. Yet major spending squeezes will be signalled nonetheless.
>The overall government departmental spending is expected to rise by just one per cent a year in that period, much lower than the 3.5 per cent of the preceding years.
>Earlier this week, Mr Wallace appeared to play down the possibility of new defence spending increases coming any time soon.
>Mr Wallace said: “My determination is to deliver a modernised defence, Armed Forces and continue to invest in them. And therefore I need that capability to do so.
>”Three per cent, 2.5 per cent targets at the end of the decade is not something that’s right in front of me in the here and now. The here and now is I need continued investment to not only support Ukraine but also to support that vital modernisation.
>”We’ll take it each budget as we come. There’ll be a budget sometime in the spring. And we’re negotiating in the very short term period between now and then to see what we can do. To influence our budget and to protect us from the impacts of inflation.”
>A Ministry of Defence spokesman declined to comment.
This isn’t going to please many Tories, infact it may lead to even more Tory infighting.
He has no manifesto, no mandate and no policies The country has no direction other than the continuing decline of the economy. What seems to be missing from thevcoverage is the fact that this disaster in the economy was of their own doing.
I wonder if Ben Wallace will quit as promised. Wallace has a good reputation in the party and a lot of standing (and support). If he does it could really thrown them into a mess again.
Although that would take a Tory with an actual backbone. But Ben Wallace is the most likely candidate for having vertebrae.
Conservatives once again proving they’re a threat to our national security, our economic security and your family’s security. Cutting spending on the military, have ranked the economy and crime is at its highest level in years thanks to cuts to the police and justice system.
Just buy lots of cardboard cutouts of things like trident for a few years.
It’ll look like we’re still big players but we’ll fool them and save bags of cash.
But heaven forbid corporations pay their fair share.
Prick.
To be fair once Ukraine has finished dealing with Russia, pretty sure we would only need Ronnie Pickering to sort the rest of em.
He won’t tax the rich or corporations so everyone will pay the price of a Tory government.
What can he even cut the Cons have repeatedly failed to sell off our carriers and almost all the Navies big purchases have already been paid for.
RAF is in a similar situation and i haven’t heard much from the army either aside for the Challanger III.
The worlds been getting more and more unstable so cutting defense is such a short sighted thing. Then again the only other way he can increase revenue is to go after the Pension fund or NHS.
Of course he could also start closing loopholes and taxing the upper bracket. He’ll that 150 billion pound loan could have solved alot of issues but hey had to reward the profiteering energy companies instead…
Oh and of course we have the winning move that is austerity which took us form a 700 billion debt to a 2 trillion one.
Good. People aren’t going to be happy about it but there’s not much need for a large convention force as well as a nuclear deterrent. Especially when the big boogie man has been proven to be made out of paper.
The only reason we need a conventional force in the modern day is to project power and morally and for legitimacy this should be part of a multi-national taskforce, where we don’t need large numbers.
They will cut the budget while still increasing their demands on the services and wonder why people can’t be retained.
Absolutely criminal, the budget needs to be increased not decreased, or at the very least kept equal to inflation! It’s weakness like this that gave Putin the confidence to invade Ukraine…
MOD: We can barely deploy two destroyers at time because our fleet is too small and overstretched
Government: Keep cutting
MOD: We only have enough frontline soldiers to field a single infantry division
Government: Keep cutting
MOD: Our sailors and submariners cannot cope with extended deployments and are leaving faster than we can recruit.
Government: Thats fine, keep cutting.
MOD: We are literally having to rely on the USMC to fill our carriers with fighter aircraft
Governemnt: Did I stutter? Keep cutting
MOD: You cant expect our forces to carry out the duties you demand with the limited resources and pay you are providing them.
Government: Do I care? Keep cutting.
MOD: We dont even have enough ammo stockpiled to last one week in a war
Government: KEEP CUTTING!!!!!!!!!
It’s funny, the Tories have always said they will back the military and our country’s security. Yet, since 2010 both our military and security has been reduced to a ghost of what it was. Less police, less soldiers, less tanks, less battleships, less aircraft.
They kept saying Corbyn would destroy the military, yet that’s what they have done themselves.
Its okay though since he’ll get plenty from his wifes dividends on Infosys’s ongoing work in Russia.
If only this meant ‘scrap Trident but not conventional forces’
I wonder how bad the treasury must be to cut back on *Defence* when there’s a war in Europe.
2 things you never cheap out on: Infrastructure and Defence spending.
They are both investments for the future. One keeps the people happy and the other keeps them safe.
The armed forces are in a bad state as it is. As with everything else, funding and manpower are at piss-poor levels, our equipment is out of date, and new equipment is seriously delayed and over budget. How much worse does he want out armed forces to be?
Good we don’t need it we’ve got trident to keep the wolves at bay. Hopefully this means no more “military aid” getting sent abroad.
Got a drinking game idea. Every time the conservative party does something unconservative or does something that will damage national security take a shot
22 comments
>Rishi Sunak is planning to cut defence spending in real terms in the coming years in an apparent breach of the Conservative election manifesto.
>Next week, the Treasury is expected to announce that all departmental spending for the next two years will remain as previously agreed in the 2021 spending review.
>That means the Ministry of Defence budget will rise in cash terms from £47.9 billion this year to £48 billion in 2023 and then £48.6 billion in 2024. But inflation, currently 10 per cent, is eating into those budgets.
>Taking into account those prices means a real term defence spending cut in those years, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a leading defence think tank.
>It means that calls for a major uplift in defence spending in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year have been rebuffed by the Treasury.
>The 2019 Tory election manifesto promised on defence spending to “increase the budget by at least 0.5 per cent above inflation every year of the new Parliament”.
>That is undercut by the real term fall coming. But ministers will argue that by taking the average yearly rise across the five-year period that the promise will still be met.
>The backdrop could complicate Mr Sunak’s tough stance on Russia expected to be delivered at his first gathering of world leaders at the G20 summit in Bali.
>The Prime Minister is expected to double down on the UK’s condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine during the summit, which begins on Monday.
>Russia will be represented by Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, rather than President Vladimir Putin who has decided not to attend.
>There have been recent media reports that US officials have urged the Ukrainians to open up communication channels with the Kremlin, though Washington denied they were pushing for peace talks.
>A backlash on the lack of defence spending increases was emerging on Friday night.
>General Lord Richard Dannatt, the former head of the army, told The Telegraph: “The Government has to cut public expenditure in order to balance the books as it is reluctant to raise taxes, but it does seem incredible that with a land war in Europe it feels it can cut the defence budget.
>“Given that we have had 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent waived under defence planners’ noses, now to be cutting it to 2 per cent or under, it makes you wonder how on earth you can plan anything sensible for the future.”
>The Telegraph understands that inside the Ministry of Defence some discussions have already begun about whether the real terms spending cut means the army needs to become even smaller.
>Last year it was announced that the number of fully trained soldiers will be cut to 72,500, the smallest size of the UK army on record.
>It remains unclear whether Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, will stick by the target set by Liz Truss to spend three per cent of GDP on defence by 2030.
>The current Nato target is two per cent, which Britain has been exceeding. Boris Johnson had announced hopes to raise that target to 2.5 per cent before he left office earlier this year.
>But even if ministers say the three per cent target remains a broad ambition, no pathway to hitting the goal is expected to be set out in the Autumn Statement, to be announced on November 17.
>Analysis suggests that to reach the target the MoD budget would have to jump from around £48 billion this year to £93 billion in 2030, just as a major Whitehall spending squeeze is coming.
>Justifying the defence spending cuts could be politically complicated for Mr Hunt, who in his Tory leadership campaign this summer promised a major increase if he won.
>On Friday, Mr Hunt stressed the financial challenges ahead given soaring inflation and interest rates and new economic figures suggesting the forecasted UK recession has already begun.
>Mr Hunt said: “What we need is to put that plan in place. It’s not going to be easy, there are going to be some very difficult choices. I’ve used the word ‘eye-watering’ before and that’s the truth.”
>Sticking to the Spending Review decisions from 2021 means that department spending levels will stay as agreed in 2023 and 2024, despite inflation eating into the budgets.
>For the years of 2025, 2026 and 2027 the Treasury is not expected to announce departmental budgets next week. Yet major spending squeezes will be signalled nonetheless.
>The overall government departmental spending is expected to rise by just one per cent a year in that period, much lower than the 3.5 per cent of the preceding years.
>Earlier this week, Mr Wallace appeared to play down the possibility of new defence spending increases coming any time soon.
>Mr Wallace said: “My determination is to deliver a modernised defence, Armed Forces and continue to invest in them. And therefore I need that capability to do so.
>”Three per cent, 2.5 per cent targets at the end of the decade is not something that’s right in front of me in the here and now. The here and now is I need continued investment to not only support Ukraine but also to support that vital modernisation.
>”We’ll take it each budget as we come. There’ll be a budget sometime in the spring. And we’re negotiating in the very short term period between now and then to see what we can do. To influence our budget and to protect us from the impacts of inflation.”
>A Ministry of Defence spokesman declined to comment.
This isn’t going to please many Tories, infact it may lead to even more Tory infighting.
He has no manifesto, no mandate and no policies The country has no direction other than the continuing decline of the economy. What seems to be missing from thevcoverage is the fact that this disaster in the economy was of their own doing.
I wonder if Ben Wallace will quit as promised. Wallace has a good reputation in the party and a lot of standing (and support). If he does it could really thrown them into a mess again.
Although that would take a Tory with an actual backbone. But Ben Wallace is the most likely candidate for having vertebrae.
Conservatives once again proving they’re a threat to our national security, our economic security and your family’s security. Cutting spending on the military, have ranked the economy and crime is at its highest level in years thanks to cuts to the police and justice system.
Just buy lots of cardboard cutouts of things like trident for a few years.
It’ll look like we’re still big players but we’ll fool them and save bags of cash.
But heaven forbid corporations pay their fair share.
Prick.
To be fair once Ukraine has finished dealing with Russia, pretty sure we would only need Ronnie Pickering to sort the rest of em.
He won’t tax the rich or corporations so everyone will pay the price of a Tory government.
What can he even cut the Cons have repeatedly failed to sell off our carriers and almost all the Navies big purchases have already been paid for.
RAF is in a similar situation and i haven’t heard much from the army either aside for the Challanger III.
The worlds been getting more and more unstable so cutting defense is such a short sighted thing. Then again the only other way he can increase revenue is to go after the Pension fund or NHS.
Of course he could also start closing loopholes and taxing the upper bracket. He’ll that 150 billion pound loan could have solved alot of issues but hey had to reward the profiteering energy companies instead…
Oh and of course we have the winning move that is austerity which took us form a 700 billion debt to a 2 trillion one.
Good. People aren’t going to be happy about it but there’s not much need for a large convention force as well as a nuclear deterrent. Especially when the big boogie man has been proven to be made out of paper.
The only reason we need a conventional force in the modern day is to project power and morally and for legitimacy this should be part of a multi-national taskforce, where we don’t need large numbers.
They will cut the budget while still increasing their demands on the services and wonder why people can’t be retained.
Absolutely criminal, the budget needs to be increased not decreased, or at the very least kept equal to inflation! It’s weakness like this that gave Putin the confidence to invade Ukraine…
MOD: We can barely deploy two destroyers at time because our fleet is too small and overstretched
Government: Keep cutting
MOD: We only have enough frontline soldiers to field a single infantry division
Government: Keep cutting
MOD: Our sailors and submariners cannot cope with extended deployments and are leaving faster than we can recruit.
Government: Thats fine, keep cutting.
MOD: We are literally having to rely on the USMC to fill our carriers with fighter aircraft
Governemnt: Did I stutter? Keep cutting
MOD: You cant expect our forces to carry out the duties you demand with the limited resources and pay you are providing them.
Government: Do I care? Keep cutting.
MOD: We dont even have enough ammo stockpiled to last one week in a war
Government: KEEP CUTTING!!!!!!!!!
It’s funny, the Tories have always said they will back the military and our country’s security. Yet, since 2010 both our military and security has been reduced to a ghost of what it was. Less police, less soldiers, less tanks, less battleships, less aircraft.
They kept saying Corbyn would destroy the military, yet that’s what they have done themselves.
Its okay though since he’ll get plenty from his wifes dividends on Infosys’s ongoing work in Russia.
If only this meant ‘scrap Trident but not conventional forces’
I wonder how bad the treasury must be to cut back on *Defence* when there’s a war in Europe.
2 things you never cheap out on: Infrastructure and Defence spending.
They are both investments for the future. One keeps the people happy and the other keeps them safe.
The armed forces are in a bad state as it is. As with everything else, funding and manpower are at piss-poor levels, our equipment is out of date, and new equipment is seriously delayed and over budget. How much worse does he want out armed forces to be?
Good we don’t need it we’ve got trident to keep the wolves at bay. Hopefully this means no more “military aid” getting sent abroad.
Got a drinking game idea. Every time the conservative party does something unconservative or does something that will damage national security take a shot