By Hugo Gye, Arj Singh
November 22, 2022 5:48 pm (Updated 6:34 pm)
Ministers are braced for a large rise in net migration when the latest numbers are published as international experts warned Britain’s economy was dependent on easing worker shortages.
The number of people settling in the UK in the past year, minus those who have left the country, is expected to come in at higher than its previous level of 239,000.
Government insiders have privately accepted there will be a significant increase despite their stated policy of pushing down net migration, i understands.
The figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday will for the first time show the impact of tens of thousands of recent Channel crossings by asylum seekers in small boats.
It comes as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has forecast that Britain’s economy will be the worst of any large wealthy country next year.
GDP in the UK is set to shrink by 0.4 per cent in 2023 – a sharper recession than any other member of the G7. Growth will return in 2024 but at a rate of just 0.2 per cent.
All of the large, high-income economies in the G7 will see sluggish growth next year, the OECD expects, but Germany will be the only other country whose economy will shrink with a predicted decline of 0.3 per cent.
In the US, France, Italy and Canada, GDP is forecast to grow by 1 per cent or less, with Japan the only G7 nation to experience faster economic growth than that.
The projections for Britain differ from those announced last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which has forecast a deeper but shorter recession with GDP shrinking 1.4 per cent next year but bouncing back by 1.3 per cent the year after.
The OECD said that shortages of workers could hurt the UK’s economy further – implying that an increase in migration may have the opposite effect. It said: “A prolonged period of acute labour shortages could force firms into a more permanent reduction in their operating capacity or push up wage inflation further.”
The OBR has already upgraded its future expectations of net migration, a change which boosts its economic and fiscal forecasts over the coming years.
The Government’s decision to subsidise energy bills for all households for at least 18 months was criticised by the OECD, which said it would drive up inflation and therefore interest rates.
The Paris-based think-tank, which is sponsored by 38 wealthy democracies, said: “The untargeted Energy Price Guarantee announced in September 2022 by the Government will increase pressure on already high inflation in the short term, requiring monetary policy to tighten more and raising debt service costs.
“Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation.”
Labour’s shadow Treasury minister, Abena Oppong-Asare, accused the Conservatives of failing to lay the groundwork for long-term economic growth. She said: “That Britain’s economy will suffer biggest hit from energy crisis among G7 nations is a direct result 12 years of Tory failures on both our energy and our economic security. They’ve failed to secure our economy and get it growing which has left us exposed to any external shocks.”
That’s really going to annoy a large chunk of the Brexiters who voted to keep immigrants out.
That’s really going to please a large chunk of the Brexiters who voted to increase non-EU immigration.
“Ministers are braced for a large rise in net migration when the latest numbers are published as international experts warned Britain’s economy was dependent on easing worker shortages.”
​
There’s not worker shortages. There’s a shortage of workers willing to demean themselves and work to the bone for minimum wage and a company that will toss them to the curb when it comes profitable.
​
Pay a decent wage and improve workers conditions and workers will come.
Bring back freedom of movement, rejoin CU and SM, pay into EU’s pocket for access and keep waving your flag if you want to.
>or push up wage inflation further.”
oh the horror!… But I thought that is how it was supposed to work?
So we’re replacing the immigrant workforce we got from EU countries whose culture was reasonably similar to ours, with immigrants from cultures that are less similar and occasionally at odds with our own, but that can be hired for less.
Yay Brexit, I guess.
Surprise surprise.
Cheap labour is more important to the tories than controlling immigration, who would have thought.
Sure, let’s just have ever more increasing numbers of people coming into the country but no improvement in public services or housing to accommodate. Great idea.
Is this left right politics flipping back?
Labour talking about training British workers to strengthen the economy and increase wages. Tories talking about needing foreign workers to ease ‘shortages’ (I.e party donor companies & the civil sector not paying enough to retain talent).
It’s like politics is returning to it’s pre-00s ways and I for one am happy for that.
So we’ve replaced those well educated and skilled migrants of Europe with more Africans, Albanians, and Asians. Just what Brexit voters voted for!
Sure, whilst hospitals, schools and housing are all over crowded.
The government now has complete control of immigration numbers and type of people.
No excuses if its not effective.
Funny how Brexit has both trashed the economy and also not appeased the xenophobic, “Taking control of our borders” folk.
I don’t really understand why people are wanting to come to this country at the moment. It’s fucking horrid here.
Why is this article trying to link migration with the economy shrinking?
So again- why is this article trying to link migration with the economy shrinking?
I have literally given up with this country. It’s a toxic cesspit. I’m outta here in the new year, and I frankly couldn’t care if I never returned!
As if we need more economic migrates being put up in 200 night hotels
There is no worker shortage. It’s a wage shortage. Raise pay and see how quickly those vacancies get filled. We are a nation of underpaid workers, and instead of fixing that they’re just brining in workers that will work for low pay.
Wait, why would immigrants want to come to a country that is getting poorer: could it be that all the rhetoric about illegal immigrants is a bunch of xenophobic nonsense. Could it be that refugees are actually fleeing war and oppression? It’s as though immigration is being *used*: oh the shock!
So brexit has both dry f’ed the economy and made the immigration issue worse?
Oh for gods sake, most of us don’t even want immigration. I’m getting sick of this.
I can’t believe I’m going to say this..but I want Starmer. I’ve had enough of the conservatives.
I’m finally ready to vote for labour.
[removed]
Can we please let in those from Hong Kong, the Japanese and Americans.
This country is an absolute joke, I’m emigrating next year and it can’t come fast enough.
lol there are so many wealthy countries nowadays, way more modern too. UK has fallen behind in tech and living standards
Any argument against unrestricted immigration gets shouted down as being racist by ideological nutcases.
Rather haunted look from Leaky Sue. Seems her position is getting to her.
What? Wait. Immigration makes this country wealthier. Right? So why would this country fair worse than others?
28 comments
By Hugo Gye, Arj Singh
November 22, 2022 5:48 pm (Updated 6:34 pm)
Ministers are braced for a large rise in net migration when the latest numbers are published as international experts warned Britain’s economy was dependent on easing worker shortages.
The number of people settling in the UK in the past year, minus those who have left the country, is expected to come in at higher than its previous level of 239,000.
Government insiders have privately accepted there will be a significant increase despite their stated policy of pushing down net migration, i understands.
The figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday will for the first time show the impact of tens of thousands of recent Channel crossings by asylum seekers in small boats.
It comes as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has forecast that Britain’s economy will be the worst of any large wealthy country next year.
GDP in the UK is set to shrink by 0.4 per cent in 2023 – a sharper recession than any other member of the G7. Growth will return in 2024 but at a rate of just 0.2 per cent.
All of the large, high-income economies in the G7 will see sluggish growth next year, the OECD expects, but Germany will be the only other country whose economy will shrink with a predicted decline of 0.3 per cent.
In the US, France, Italy and Canada, GDP is forecast to grow by 1 per cent or less, with Japan the only G7 nation to experience faster economic growth than that.
The projections for Britain differ from those announced last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which has forecast a deeper but shorter recession with GDP shrinking 1.4 per cent next year but bouncing back by 1.3 per cent the year after.
The OECD said that shortages of workers could hurt the UK’s economy further – implying that an increase in migration may have the opposite effect. It said: “A prolonged period of acute labour shortages could force firms into a more permanent reduction in their operating capacity or push up wage inflation further.”
The OBR has already upgraded its future expectations of net migration, a change which boosts its economic and fiscal forecasts over the coming years.
The Government’s decision to subsidise energy bills for all households for at least 18 months was criticised by the OECD, which said it would drive up inflation and therefore interest rates.
The Paris-based think-tank, which is sponsored by 38 wealthy democracies, said: “The untargeted Energy Price Guarantee announced in September 2022 by the Government will increase pressure on already high inflation in the short term, requiring monetary policy to tighten more and raising debt service costs.
“Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation.”
Labour’s shadow Treasury minister, Abena Oppong-Asare, accused the Conservatives of failing to lay the groundwork for long-term economic growth. She said: “That Britain’s economy will suffer biggest hit from energy crisis among G7 nations is a direct result 12 years of Tory failures on both our energy and our economic security. They’ve failed to secure our economy and get it growing which has left us exposed to any external shocks.”
That’s really going to annoy a large chunk of the Brexiters who voted to keep immigrants out.
That’s really going to please a large chunk of the Brexiters who voted to increase non-EU immigration.
“Ministers are braced for a large rise in net migration when the latest numbers are published as international experts warned Britain’s economy was dependent on easing worker shortages.”
​
There’s not worker shortages. There’s a shortage of workers willing to demean themselves and work to the bone for minimum wage and a company that will toss them to the curb when it comes profitable.
​
Pay a decent wage and improve workers conditions and workers will come.
Bring back freedom of movement, rejoin CU and SM, pay into EU’s pocket for access and keep waving your flag if you want to.
>or push up wage inflation further.”
oh the horror!… But I thought that is how it was supposed to work?
So we’re replacing the immigrant workforce we got from EU countries whose culture was reasonably similar to ours, with immigrants from cultures that are less similar and occasionally at odds with our own, but that can be hired for less.
Yay Brexit, I guess.
Surprise surprise.
Cheap labour is more important to the tories than controlling immigration, who would have thought.
Sure, let’s just have ever more increasing numbers of people coming into the country but no improvement in public services or housing to accommodate. Great idea.
Is this left right politics flipping back?
Labour talking about training British workers to strengthen the economy and increase wages. Tories talking about needing foreign workers to ease ‘shortages’ (I.e party donor companies & the civil sector not paying enough to retain talent).
It’s like politics is returning to it’s pre-00s ways and I for one am happy for that.
So we’ve replaced those well educated and skilled migrants of Europe with more Africans, Albanians, and Asians. Just what Brexit voters voted for!
Sure, whilst hospitals, schools and housing are all over crowded.
The government now has complete control of immigration numbers and type of people.
No excuses if its not effective.
Funny how Brexit has both trashed the economy and also not appeased the xenophobic, “Taking control of our borders” folk.
I don’t really understand why people are wanting to come to this country at the moment. It’s fucking horrid here.
Why is this article trying to link migration with the economy shrinking?
Ireland is the fastest growing economy in Europe- GDP up 13.5 % last year (UK was 7.4% in the same period- [source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/686147/gdp-growth-europe/))
Net migration figures of the two are practically identical (Ireland: 2.577 per thousand of population, UK: 2.572 per thousand of population source: [IR](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/net-migration), [UK](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/net-migration))
So again- why is this article trying to link migration with the economy shrinking?
I have literally given up with this country. It’s a toxic cesspit. I’m outta here in the new year, and I frankly couldn’t care if I never returned!
As if we need more economic migrates being put up in 200 night hotels
There is no worker shortage. It’s a wage shortage. Raise pay and see how quickly those vacancies get filled. We are a nation of underpaid workers, and instead of fixing that they’re just brining in workers that will work for low pay.
Wait, why would immigrants want to come to a country that is getting poorer: could it be that all the rhetoric about illegal immigrants is a bunch of xenophobic nonsense. Could it be that refugees are actually fleeing war and oppression? It’s as though immigration is being *used*: oh the shock!
So brexit has both dry f’ed the economy and made the immigration issue worse?
Oh for gods sake, most of us don’t even want immigration. I’m getting sick of this.
I can’t believe I’m going to say this..but I want Starmer. I’ve had enough of the conservatives.
I’m finally ready to vote for labour.
[removed]
Can we please let in those from Hong Kong, the Japanese and Americans.
This country is an absolute joke, I’m emigrating next year and it can’t come fast enough.
lol there are so many wealthy countries nowadays, way more modern too. UK has fallen behind in tech and living standards
Any argument against unrestricted immigration gets shouted down as being racist by ideological nutcases.
Rather haunted look from Leaky Sue. Seems her position is getting to her.
What? Wait. Immigration makes this country wealthier. Right? So why would this country fair worse than others?