I think parliament is in a death spiral. Both Parties are hated. We right now are ruled by an illegitimate government. How dare they criticise other governments for being anti democratic
If they are I hope they get it over with and die already.
I think the country as a whole is, and there’s no decent pilot to pull us out!
Tories die, lobbyists and cronies oust Jez and turn Labour into red tories, media pushes them in, rince and repeat for the next 1000 years
Death spiral? No, that’s deluded.
Labour will get into power for 5 to 10 years, and then the Conservative party will be back in power for a further 10 or so years. That’s how it works.
All this “the tories are dying” talk is sensationalist bullshit. They’re going into opposition next parliament, that’s about it.
EDIT: and TBH, there’s every chance they can still win or sufficiently salvage themselves the next election when you consider new voter ID laws. This notion that the Tories are somehow dead are really stupid.
I attempted to read that but it’s way over my head.
Yes they are in a death spiral from my point of view. Cost of living, recession, scandals and 12 years in power will do that to a party.
Younger voters hate them with a passion. Labour will win by a landslide. However I don’t think they will be the magic bullet many think they will.
Two terms should be easy enough after that?
The Conservatives are well aware that people under 50, especially younger people, have been shafted over the last 12 years.
Voter fraud is easier, and more likely, via the postal ballots often used by the elderly. The government, again unsurprisingly, has no interest in introducing ID for THOSE voters.
There is a word for right wing governments that actively seek to subvert the democratic process in order to maintain power against the wishes of the populace.
Yes, I think so…
Very hard to keep the winning 2019 coalition together in any case; and now there’s precious little to show either the Red Wall or the Blue Wall.
Plus, they’ve pissed off Dominic Cummings. Which is usually fatal (as Osborn, Cameron, May and Johnson will tell you).
The Tories were in a bad way after Major’s defeat, and for a very long time
Nobody had any idea what the Tories were for or how they were supposed to regain power
Similar to Labour after 2010 and in the early eighties
Excellent article, nice to see some numbers here, especially about the tory 2019 ‘don’t knows’ which now put the tories back to being merely quite unpopular.
>the Conservative Party is increasingly reliant on an older, lower-education, lower-income group of voters who own their houses outright. Aka pensioners. Which explains a good deal about the policy priorities of the government in recent spending rounds and the fallback to culture war issues for want of anything else.
But it likely means future electoral doom unless they can pivot back to some of their previous high-income, high-education, mortgage-holding voters. You know, yuppies. Or centrist dads.
It does look like the tories have goosed the old Boris electoral coalition by basically not doing anything for them. But it is not totally clear to what extent Starmers (slightly to the left of Ed Miliband but nobody knows how much) labour can really address the huge structural problems in the UK economy without seriously tangling with entrenched power, and I’m not sure if they’re brave enough to do that, if they don’t they could become pretty unpopular pretty quickly and let the tories back in even with their long term deficiencies, especially if they play a David cameron, weak appeal to those younger mortgage holders and centrist dads.
There is also a chance that inflation is actually transient, there are some signs it is coming down already in the US, though it is a different question than the UK, we could be back to something like economic growth and low inflation by next election and a worst case scenario might be like the 1992 election where labour were 20 points ahead a while before but lost narrowly. But in the 90s labour started to slip in the polls almost as soon as they stopped the poll tax and nowadays labour have been steady a month after Truss resigned.
Like most bad ideas, I don’t think the party will die. I wish it would, but then another similar party would just emerge and take it’s place. It’s really hard to convince selfish, greedy people to care for others – these people will need another party to throw their lot in with if they can’t look to the conservatives.
I do think though, that there’s a chance they might not win the next election, and that’s really something. They know it and they’ll try everything they can to hold on as we get closer. Imagine all of the shittiest things they could do to keep power – they will consider them.
I think conservatism in general is just bad. It doesn’t track with where the newer generations want to go and during this hell-rein it has just turned more and more into a shitshow. Hopefully that means it won’t be a thing in the distant future.
We really need some kind of political reform.
yeah .. but its Corbyn’s fault + the last labour governments fault and immigrants are to blame so it’s not really the Tories that are to blame
It’s not such much a death spiral as a murder-suicide.
Maybe not yet, but they must know their time is running out. People vote Tory when they have assets to protect. With people having little in the way of savings and most younger people renting, there are fewer Tory voters coming in to replace the elderly as they die. They still have a few elections left in them as the number of over 65s is still very high, however they will lose more and more support with each election. I suspect they will just make the most of the time in power they have left and do all they can to pull the ladder up as they go.
Very interesting. I didn’t know about the education factor so it was good too see it broken down in this level of detail.
We’ve had a pandemic and the biggest social support scheme in the countrys history with the furlough scheme.
The war in Ukraine causing global inflation.
There always was going to be a bill to pay.
I’d rather have someone who has successfully worked with global finance calling the shots.
Who knows what things look like in 18 months….
I don’t see any competent opposition.
Labour with the unions using starmer as a hand puppet will make inflation skyrocket with wage rises and nationalization…
Good news is we will all be millionaires with inflation…
Bad news is that a pint will cost £3500.
Heard it all before. They and the proverbial cock-roaches will, unfortunately, likely survive the Nuclear Holocaust. :/
Yes. Labours numbers are only up because the number of people disengaging is up, and people who are tory are completely disillusioned.
Politics is broken, democracy is broken and we’re all in the same death spiral.
I think the current Conservative government are not pursuing a coherent political agenda, they’re asset-stripping the country. So as well as screwing the rest of us, they’re also screwing ideological Conservatives. Which is fine by me – fuck those guys as well.
New young blood not hungry for money nor PROFITEERING but for change is the only way forward
It definitely feels like the opposite of a meritocratic society when the majority of homeowners are people who either don’t work at all or who just got lucky despite not investing a jot in education, training or public service 40 to 50 years ago. Meanwhile the people who actually keep society going are a renting serf class with no rights or expectation to not be kicked out of where they live with no notice at the owner’s whim.
The Tories have totally lost touch with what should be their core values of creating a middle-class to support their policies and businesses.
No. Why? Because the Labour Party is led by Conservatives too.
The moment Rishi went into no.10 was the nail in the coffin. He’s an imbecile. I truly think it is over permanently for the tory party. That’s not to say labour are any better…
I read something a few weeks ago saying this is all planned and that the torys are going to run the next election on rejoining the SM and fom to appeal to the generation that has mostly been shafted by brexit.
When I read it I thought what an absolute load of shite. Now with the rumours that seem to be coming out of number 10 I think this could actually be something they’re considering.
We all know how good they are at starting ‘rumours’ to test the water.
Amusingly their own divide & conquer tactics came back & bit em hard.
The savage, zero middle ground, polarising attitude encouraged towards everything, but especially brexit, affected their party as much as it did the populace.
Didn’t agree with hard brexit got you kicked out.
Then the same division over Johnson’s incompetence & lies got you kicked out.
I’ve always hated Tories but these openly cruel right wing bullies have made the likes of Kenneth Clarke almost admirable.
So now they’ve got a whole crew of talentless, duplicitous puppet mps who have already very clearly demonstrated a lack of any spine or morales by passing the very low bar of not getting sacked so far.
Also the capitalist end game of squeezing extra profit & cutting costs has got our water bills at an all time high & our rivers full of shit.
Our health & care workers treated so poorly & paid so badly that you’ll cleaning grannies pants yourself.
Your mail won’t be delivered, the trains won’t run etc etc
So the “I’m alright Jack” voters that always kept them in power aren’t alright anymore.
The lefty youth who only historically took a right turn in politics later in life to protect their wealth, don’t have any wealth, half have got student debts.
So every sector of our society (except super wealthy) is worse because of them & it’s getting so obvious I’m hopeful even the daily mail won’t be able to hide it.
If there were shares in the Conservative party no one would buy them now, or ever again.
No. Not at all. They are comfortably in power and if youre mental health is reliant on them losing then start preparing for that. Its far from a done deal.
>Parties, of course, have ideologies. They cannot be a million different people from one day to the next.
27 comments
I think parliament is in a death spiral. Both Parties are hated. We right now are ruled by an illegitimate government. How dare they criticise other governments for being anti democratic
If they are I hope they get it over with and die already.
I think the country as a whole is, and there’s no decent pilot to pull us out!
Tories die, lobbyists and cronies oust Jez and turn Labour into red tories, media pushes them in, rince and repeat for the next 1000 years
Death spiral? No, that’s deluded.
Labour will get into power for 5 to 10 years, and then the Conservative party will be back in power for a further 10 or so years. That’s how it works.
All this “the tories are dying” talk is sensationalist bullshit. They’re going into opposition next parliament, that’s about it.
EDIT: and TBH, there’s every chance they can still win or sufficiently salvage themselves the next election when you consider new voter ID laws. This notion that the Tories are somehow dead are really stupid.
I attempted to read that but it’s way over my head.
Yes they are in a death spiral from my point of view. Cost of living, recession, scandals and 12 years in power will do that to a party.
Younger voters hate them with a passion. Labour will win by a landslide. However I don’t think they will be the magic bullet many think they will.
Two terms should be easy enough after that?
The Conservatives are well aware that people under 50, especially younger people, have been shafted over the last 12 years.
Their answer, unsurprisingly, is US style [voter suppression](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/28/using-photo-id-in-british-elections-will-harm-democracy-say-us-civil-rights-groups) laws, despite the level of voter fraud at in-person voting stations being vanishlingly small.
Voter fraud is easier, and more likely, via the postal ballots often used by the elderly. The government, again unsurprisingly, has no interest in introducing ID for THOSE voters.
There is a word for right wing governments that actively seek to subvert the democratic process in order to maintain power against the wishes of the populace.
Yes, I think so…
Very hard to keep the winning 2019 coalition together in any case; and now there’s precious little to show either the Red Wall or the Blue Wall.
Plus, they’ve pissed off Dominic Cummings. Which is usually fatal (as Osborn, Cameron, May and Johnson will tell you).
The Tories were in a bad way after Major’s defeat, and for a very long time
Nobody had any idea what the Tories were for or how they were supposed to regain power
Similar to Labour after 2010 and in the early eighties
Excellent article, nice to see some numbers here, especially about the tory 2019 ‘don’t knows’ which now put the tories back to being merely quite unpopular.
>the Conservative Party is increasingly reliant on an older, lower-education, lower-income group of voters who own their houses outright. Aka pensioners. Which explains a good deal about the policy priorities of the government in recent spending rounds and the fallback to culture war issues for want of anything else.
But it likely means future electoral doom unless they can pivot back to some of their previous high-income, high-education, mortgage-holding voters. You know, yuppies. Or centrist dads.
It does look like the tories have goosed the old Boris electoral coalition by basically not doing anything for them. But it is not totally clear to what extent Starmers (slightly to the left of Ed Miliband but nobody knows how much) labour can really address the huge structural problems in the UK economy without seriously tangling with entrenched power, and I’m not sure if they’re brave enough to do that, if they don’t they could become pretty unpopular pretty quickly and let the tories back in even with their long term deficiencies, especially if they play a David cameron, weak appeal to those younger mortgage holders and centrist dads.
There is also a chance that inflation is actually transient, there are some signs it is coming down already in the US, though it is a different question than the UK, we could be back to something like economic growth and low inflation by next election and a worst case scenario might be like the 1992 election where labour were 20 points ahead a while before but lost narrowly. But in the 90s labour started to slip in the polls almost as soon as they stopped the poll tax and nowadays labour have been steady a month after Truss resigned.
Like most bad ideas, I don’t think the party will die. I wish it would, but then another similar party would just emerge and take it’s place. It’s really hard to convince selfish, greedy people to care for others – these people will need another party to throw their lot in with if they can’t look to the conservatives.
I do think though, that there’s a chance they might not win the next election, and that’s really something. They know it and they’ll try everything they can to hold on as we get closer. Imagine all of the shittiest things they could do to keep power – they will consider them.
I think conservatism in general is just bad. It doesn’t track with where the newer generations want to go and during this hell-rein it has just turned more and more into a shitshow. Hopefully that means it won’t be a thing in the distant future.
We really need some kind of political reform.
yeah .. but its Corbyn’s fault + the last labour governments fault and immigrants are to blame so it’s not really the Tories that are to blame
It’s not such much a death spiral as a murder-suicide.
Maybe not yet, but they must know their time is running out. People vote Tory when they have assets to protect. With people having little in the way of savings and most younger people renting, there are fewer Tory voters coming in to replace the elderly as they die. They still have a few elections left in them as the number of over 65s is still very high, however they will lose more and more support with each election. I suspect they will just make the most of the time in power they have left and do all they can to pull the ladder up as they go.
Very interesting. I didn’t know about the education factor so it was good too see it broken down in this level of detail.
We’ve had a pandemic and the biggest social support scheme in the countrys history with the furlough scheme.
The war in Ukraine causing global inflation.
There always was going to be a bill to pay.
I’d rather have someone who has successfully worked with global finance calling the shots.
Who knows what things look like in 18 months….
I don’t see any competent opposition.
Labour with the unions using starmer as a hand puppet will make inflation skyrocket with wage rises and nationalization…
Good news is we will all be millionaires with inflation…
Bad news is that a pint will cost £3500.
Heard it all before. They and the proverbial cock-roaches will, unfortunately, likely survive the Nuclear Holocaust. :/
Yes. Labours numbers are only up because the number of people disengaging is up, and people who are tory are completely disillusioned.
Politics is broken, democracy is broken and we’re all in the same death spiral.
I think the current Conservative government are not pursuing a coherent political agenda, they’re asset-stripping the country. So as well as screwing the rest of us, they’re also screwing ideological Conservatives. Which is fine by me – fuck those guys as well.
New young blood not hungry for money nor PROFITEERING but for change is the only way forward
It definitely feels like the opposite of a meritocratic society when the majority of homeowners are people who either don’t work at all or who just got lucky despite not investing a jot in education, training or public service 40 to 50 years ago. Meanwhile the people who actually keep society going are a renting serf class with no rights or expectation to not be kicked out of where they live with no notice at the owner’s whim.
The Tories have totally lost touch with what should be their core values of creating a middle-class to support their policies and businesses.
No. Why? Because the Labour Party is led by Conservatives too.
The moment Rishi went into no.10 was the nail in the coffin. He’s an imbecile. I truly think it is over permanently for the tory party. That’s not to say labour are any better…
I read something a few weeks ago saying this is all planned and that the torys are going to run the next election on rejoining the SM and fom to appeal to the generation that has mostly been shafted by brexit.
When I read it I thought what an absolute load of shite. Now with the rumours that seem to be coming out of number 10 I think this could actually be something they’re considering.
We all know how good they are at starting ‘rumours’ to test the water.
Amusingly their own divide & conquer tactics came back & bit em hard.
The savage, zero middle ground, polarising attitude encouraged towards everything, but especially brexit, affected their party as much as it did the populace.
Didn’t agree with hard brexit got you kicked out.
Then the same division over Johnson’s incompetence & lies got you kicked out.
I’ve always hated Tories but these openly cruel right wing bullies have made the likes of Kenneth Clarke almost admirable.
So now they’ve got a whole crew of talentless, duplicitous puppet mps who have already very clearly demonstrated a lack of any spine or morales by passing the very low bar of not getting sacked so far.
Also the capitalist end game of squeezing extra profit & cutting costs has got our water bills at an all time high & our rivers full of shit.
Our health & care workers treated so poorly & paid so badly that you’ll cleaning grannies pants yourself.
Your mail won’t be delivered, the trains won’t run etc etc
So the “I’m alright Jack” voters that always kept them in power aren’t alright anymore.
The lefty youth who only historically took a right turn in politics later in life to protect their wealth, don’t have any wealth, half have got student debts.
So every sector of our society (except super wealthy) is worse because of them & it’s getting so obvious I’m hopeful even the daily mail won’t be able to hide it.
If there were shares in the Conservative party no one would buy them now, or ever again.
No. Not at all. They are comfortably in power and if youre mental health is reliant on them losing then start preparing for that. Its far from a done deal.
>Parties, of course, have ideologies. They cannot be a million different people from one day to the next.
Conservatives go BRRRRRRR