KYIV, Ukraine — On the 30th anniversary of the founding of Ukraine’s armed forces, President Volodymyr Zelensky donned a helmet and flak jacket to tour the trenches this week and announced with great fanfare the delivery of new tanks, armored vehicles and ships to frontline units engaged in fighting Russian forces and Kremlin-backed separatists.
The weapons systems may help to maintain parity in the slow-moving war of attrition that has prevailed for years. But neither they nor anything else the Ukrainian military can now muster would be sufficient to repel a full-on Russian assault that Ukrainian and Western officials say Moscow might be preparing.
With nearly 100,000 troops now massed across Ukraine’s eastern, northern and southern borders and more on the way, even the Ukrainian officials responsible for their country’s defense acknowledge that without a significant influx of resources, their forces do not stand much of a chance.
“Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to be objective at this stage,” said Gen. Kyrylo O. Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. “There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of Western forces.”
General Budanov outlined his nightmare vision of a Russian invasion that would begin with airstrikes and rocket attacks aimed initially at ammunition depots and trench-bound troops. Very quickly, he said, the Ukrainian military would be incapacitated, its leadership unable to coordinate a defense and supply the front. After that, he said, responsibility would fall to frontline commanders to carry on the fight alone.
“They will hold up as long as there are bullets,” General Budanov said. “They’ll be able to use what they have in their hands, but believe me without delivery of reserves, there’s not an army in the world that can hold out.”
While Russia could be prepared militarily to launch an invasion of Ukraine as early as January or February, Ukraine and Western intelligence services say there is no indication that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has made up his mind whether to do so. In a video call with President Biden on Tuesday, Mr. Putin dismissed concerns about the troop buildup on Ukraine’s border, shifting blame to the United States and NATO, which he accused of threatening Russia’s security by supporting Ukraine’s military with arms and training.
“The Russian troops are on their own territory,” an adviser to Mr. Putin, Yuri V. Ushakov, said in a briefing with reporters after the presidents had spoken. “They don’t threaten anyone.”
Still, the amassing of troops and heavy weaponry on the border has forced Ukrainian officials to face some hard truths in recent weeks. The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Russia has devised plans for an offensive involving 175,000 troops.
Ukraine has only slightly more enlisted soldiers and officers in its entire military, according to the Ministry of Defense. It is outgunned on land, at sea and in the air, with only about 200 aircraft in its Air Force, including transport vehicles, fewer than the number of fighter planes that Russia has deployed already to the Ukrainian border.
Russia’s forces include battle-ready submarines and frigates in the Black Sea armed with cruise missiles, and land-based units equipped with Iskander-M ballistic missiles, while Ukraine lacks serious missile defense systems. The Russian missiles could wipe out a significant part of the Ukrainian military in less than an hour, said Robert Lee, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and Ph.D. candidate at King’s College in London, who is a Russian military expert.
“If Russia really wants to unleash its conventional capabilities, they could inflict massive damage in a very short period of time,” Mr. Lee said. “They can devastate the Ukrainian military in the east really quickly, within the first 30-40 minutes.”
I’ve never seen the Ukrainian military leadership being so honest about their chances. A welcome change.
What’s the point of Russian invading the Ukraine? Is this just Putins ego?
wait, but ukrainian redditors keep telling me that ukraine will easily destroy those puny russians
Well fuck
What’s the point of even invading Ukraine anyways? National glory for the days of the USSR? Food? Distractions from home problems? Cash for oligarchs?
How likely is this to happen any time soon?
Welp lot’s of luck, I’m sure the French and Germans will do whatever they can to sell the Ukranians out for Russian Gas.
No shit
Then we’ll fight a guerrilla war for decades. Russia can destroy every single building in our country, every tank and plane, but we will never surrender. We’ll lost a significant part of our land, but we will not surrender. People in Ukraine will not embrace russian rule. Funny thing: before 2014 it was possible, but not now.
It’ll be a massacre, with a lot of casualties from the russian side. It definitely won’t be a small and victorious war. After thousands of coffins going back to russia, people of russia will have totally different views on their government.
Were the last 7 years then completely wasted? Did Ukraine not prepare enough..? Or is the Russian military somehow a god that a country of 40+ million cannot resist..?
This article is incredibly demoralizing.
Ukrainian odda increase rapidly if western powers support by rapid air power or navel forces.
However land forces will not be able to out pace the Russian response who have been busy pre preparing, stocking suplies and logistics for an potentiall invasion.
Aaembling an substantial ground force is alot slower when your reacting thwn acting. Especially if its armoured, and artillery etc.
However its how close they want to launch WW3… How heavy response is.
Ukraine is going to be forced to create a special autonomous area in the Donbass. My guess on the Biden administration path foward
Can somebody tell me why a country with an economy the size of the Benelux has such a large influence on world affairs? If it’s the nukes than why aren’t we constantly talking about Pakistan?
Even limited lend-lease from the West would make a great difference. Sell ~500 ATGM systems, a thousand mortars and ammo, a couple thousand HF radio sets, NVGs and thermals – and the bear will bleed white. Transfers of heavy equipment could be done from the neighboring countries (with modern replacements to the respective countries by the US for example) – some 300+ T-72B equivalents would form immediate reserve that would remove the pressure significantly. Just a couple of mobile radars, modern EAECM equipment – would be a massive complement to the existing strong air defense network. A single THAAD battery would considerably reduce capabilities of the missile attacks, which is the only really effective force multiplier that Russia has.
14 comments
KYIV, Ukraine — On the 30th anniversary of the founding of Ukraine’s armed forces, President Volodymyr Zelensky donned a helmet and flak jacket to tour the trenches this week and announced with great fanfare the delivery of new tanks, armored vehicles and ships to frontline units engaged in fighting Russian forces and Kremlin-backed separatists.
The weapons systems may help to maintain parity in the slow-moving war of attrition that has prevailed for years. But neither they nor anything else the Ukrainian military can now muster would be sufficient to repel a full-on Russian assault that Ukrainian and Western officials say Moscow might be preparing.
With nearly 100,000 troops now massed across Ukraine’s eastern, northern and southern borders and more on the way, even the Ukrainian officials responsible for their country’s defense acknowledge that without a significant influx of resources, their forces do not stand much of a chance.
“Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to be objective at this stage,” said Gen. Kyrylo O. Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. “There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of Western forces.”
General Budanov outlined his nightmare vision of a Russian invasion that would begin with airstrikes and rocket attacks aimed initially at ammunition depots and trench-bound troops. Very quickly, he said, the Ukrainian military would be incapacitated, its leadership unable to coordinate a defense and supply the front. After that, he said, responsibility would fall to frontline commanders to carry on the fight alone.
“They will hold up as long as there are bullets,” General Budanov said. “They’ll be able to use what they have in their hands, but believe me without delivery of reserves, there’s not an army in the world that can hold out.”
While Russia could be prepared militarily to launch an invasion of Ukraine as early as January or February, Ukraine and Western intelligence services say there is no indication that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has made up his mind whether to do so. In a video call with President Biden on Tuesday, Mr. Putin dismissed concerns about the troop buildup on Ukraine’s border, shifting blame to the United States and NATO, which he accused of threatening Russia’s security by supporting Ukraine’s military with arms and training.
“The Russian troops are on their own territory,” an adviser to Mr. Putin, Yuri V. Ushakov, said in a briefing with reporters after the presidents had spoken. “They don’t threaten anyone.”
Still, the amassing of troops and heavy weaponry on the border has forced Ukrainian officials to face some hard truths in recent weeks. The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Russia has devised plans for an offensive involving 175,000 troops.
Ukraine has only slightly more enlisted soldiers and officers in its entire military, according to the Ministry of Defense. It is outgunned on land, at sea and in the air, with only about 200 aircraft in its Air Force, including transport vehicles, fewer than the number of fighter planes that Russia has deployed already to the Ukrainian border.
Russia’s forces include battle-ready submarines and frigates in the Black Sea armed with cruise missiles, and land-based units equipped with Iskander-M ballistic missiles, while Ukraine lacks serious missile defense systems. The Russian missiles could wipe out a significant part of the Ukrainian military in less than an hour, said Robert Lee, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and Ph.D. candidate at King’s College in London, who is a Russian military expert.
“If Russia really wants to unleash its conventional capabilities, they could inflict massive damage in a very short period of time,” Mr. Lee said. “They can devastate the Ukrainian military in the east really quickly, within the first 30-40 minutes.”
I’ve never seen the Ukrainian military leadership being so honest about their chances. A welcome change.
What’s the point of Russian invading the Ukraine? Is this just Putins ego?
wait, but ukrainian redditors keep telling me that ukraine will easily destroy those puny russians
Well fuck
What’s the point of even invading Ukraine anyways? National glory for the days of the USSR? Food? Distractions from home problems? Cash for oligarchs?
How likely is this to happen any time soon?
Welp lot’s of luck, I’m sure the French and Germans will do whatever they can to sell the Ukranians out for Russian Gas.
No shit
Then we’ll fight a guerrilla war for decades. Russia can destroy every single building in our country, every tank and plane, but we will never surrender. We’ll lost a significant part of our land, but we will not surrender. People in Ukraine will not embrace russian rule. Funny thing: before 2014 it was possible, but not now.
It’ll be a massacre, with a lot of casualties from the russian side. It definitely won’t be a small and victorious war. After thousands of coffins going back to russia, people of russia will have totally different views on their government.
Were the last 7 years then completely wasted? Did Ukraine not prepare enough..? Or is the Russian military somehow a god that a country of 40+ million cannot resist..?
This article is incredibly demoralizing.
Ukrainian odda increase rapidly if western powers support by rapid air power or navel forces.
However land forces will not be able to out pace the Russian response who have been busy pre preparing, stocking suplies and logistics for an potentiall invasion.
Aaembling an substantial ground force is alot slower when your reacting thwn acting. Especially if its armoured, and artillery etc.
However its how close they want to launch WW3… How heavy response is.
Ukraine is going to be forced to create a special autonomous area in the Donbass. My guess on the Biden administration path foward
Can somebody tell me why a country with an economy the size of the Benelux has such a large influence on world affairs? If it’s the nukes than why aren’t we constantly talking about Pakistan?
Even limited lend-lease from the West would make a great difference. Sell ~500 ATGM systems, a thousand mortars and ammo, a couple thousand HF radio sets, NVGs and thermals – and the bear will bleed white. Transfers of heavy equipment could be done from the neighboring countries (with modern replacements to the respective countries by the US for example) – some 300+ T-72B equivalents would form immediate reserve that would remove the pressure significantly. Just a couple of mobile radars, modern EAECM equipment – would be a massive complement to the existing strong air defense network. A single THAAD battery would considerably reduce capabilities of the missile attacks, which is the only really effective force multiplier that Russia has.