Puzzle with nuclear power plants: what do we actually need in 2025?
In 2025 all our nuclear reactors will normally stop. Either final or temporary. How do we get through the winter? Are we going to shift with the operating calendar of our youngest two nuclear reactors? And if so, why is that necessary? Because we didn’t have gas-fired power stations to accommodate those nuclear power plants? If you can no longer see the forest for the trees, we will try to do something about it.
Luc Pauwels, Nina Verhaeghe 06:10
Belgium has two sites with a total of seven nuclear reactors. There are four in Doel (yes four, even though there are only two cooling towers there: Goals 1 and 2 are smaller power stations that do not need extra cooling tower) and three in Tihange. Together they account for 6,000 MW (megawatts) of installed capacity and currently deliver almost half of our electricity.
In 2003, politicians decided that all our nuclear reactors would close after 40 years of service. In the meantime, that period has already been “stretched” for three reactors: Tihange 1, Doel 1 and Doel 2. In 2015, the government decided that these reactors could run ten years longer. (For Tihange 1, that decision fell a little earlier.) As a result, they would close in 2025 instead of 2015.
The year 2025
That means that 2025 will be a very important year. Because then all our nuclear power stations would be stationary. Follow us. Goal 3 has already closed, in principle for good, at the end of September of this year. Tihange 2 then follows second in the row, on February 1 next year. And all others will in principle close in the course of 2025. So of our seven reactors, five will close in one year, in 2025.
In principle, we say, because at the moment the government is negotiating with operator Engie Electrabel for two reactors, Doel 4 and Tihange 3, 10 But those discussions are still ongoing (and are difficult) and the entire legal procedure surrounding it. That is why, according to the current state of law, this is still the official closing calendar: as stated, this scenario can change if an agreement is reached to make Doel 4 and Tihange 3 run longer. You would think that we will be out of trouble from the winter of 2025, but that is not the case. Because even if Doel 4 and Tihange 3 should not be closed definitively in 2025, they have to close temporarily that year to have the works that make it possible for them to run longer.
Close is close
According to the planning of ENGIE Electrabel, the reactors would close around mid-2025 and then be restarted in November 2026. This means that the winter must be bridged 2025-2026 without a nuclear reactor. Whether that closure is then temporary or definitive does not matter at that time. Initially, the government thought it was going through that difficult winter with other means (for example, gas-fired power stations and especially a lot of imports), but in recent months there have been doubts about this. The opposition has always had that doubt, it found nuclear power stations close anyway. But now the government is also worried. “The situation has changed completely in recent months,” it sounds.
Fuel save
The prime minister and the Minister of Energy Tinne Van der Straeten (Green) point to two factors. The war in Ukraine lasts longer than expected, putting our energy situation under pressure. And France, which otherwise can supply us as a neighboring country, is struggling with its own nuclear power plants and that also keeps on dragging. France is now constantly introducing electricity from us, instead of us from them. More about that.
It is in that context of growing uncertainty that this week the plan came up to take a different approach to the difficult winter of 2025-2026. Van der Straeten wants to investigate whether it is possible to keep Doel 4 and Tihange 3 open in that winter, by making them run less in the summer. This way, fuel can be saved in the summer and then bridge the winter. In the jargon it is called Fuel Extension.
“Whether you extend for a few months or ten years: the safety requirements must be observed anyway.” Engie Electrabel
Whether that Fuel Extension is coming is just the question. Operator Engie Electrabel is not enthusiastic to put it mildly. ENGIE points out that a whole legal procedure can also be followed for a short extension and the stricter safety standards must be observed. “Whether it is extended for a few months or ten years, the safety requirements must be complied with”, is part of ENGIE.
Such a Fuel Extension would also create an additional problem. It is therefore considered to shift with the days / weeks on which Doel 4 and Tihange 3 run. (In some scenarios it is also about shifting in the time of the closing date of the three older reactors, but that seems less likely.) The problem is: if your goal 4 and Tihange 3 run at times when they should have been closed for maintenance, move it to the move to And that could mean that we will run into problems in the following winter, in 2026-2027, because the reactors are not yet ready …
Translation EN (Google translate) 2/2:
What about our gas-fired power stations?
You may be wondering: were we not going to solve all this with (additional) gas-fired power stations? First of all this: Contrary to what many people think, there are already a lot of gas-fired power stations in Belgium. We list the most important ones below, together they are good for more than 4,000 megawatts of installed capacity. Then we have all kinds of smaller power stations that supply both heat and electricity, not counted. If you do, we get a power of almost 6000 megawatts. That is as much as our 7 nuclear reactors combined.
This consideration must be made: you cannot simply compare our fleet of gas plants with those of our nuclear power stations. Nuclear power stations are designed to run continuously at full power: our 7 nuclear reactors have had several long periods in which they all together supplied their nearly 6,000 megawatts at full power.
With our current fleet of gas plants, that is virtually impossible. Among other things, there are peak power stations: inefficient, polluting and very expensive and actually not designed to run for a long time. Moreover, there are so many small gas turbines that there are always several maintenance. In addition, quite a few of our gas-fired power stations have a considerable age. They appear to fall out more than the nuclear reactors, partly because they run much more unevenly. They literally give more or less gas when there is less or more solar and wind energy.
That puts the gas fleet under pressure. In practice, the 6,000 megawatts will never be able to run simultaneously, something that our governments also include in their calculations.
“We have almost as many gas-fired power stations as nuclear power plants, but we never get them to talk at the same time.”
The high gas price due to the war in Ukraine makes it less evident to use gas-fired power stations. They are nevertheless needed to compensate for the loss of our nuclear power plants. That is why the government has already awarded subsidies to two new gas-fired power stations, one in Seraing (from manager Luminus) and one in Les Awirs, at Liège (from manager Engie).
There is still discussion about whether two extra gas-fired power stations will suffice. That is why there is another one on the reserve bench: in Limburg, the Tessenderlo Chemie group has a permit to also build a new gas plant. Only he will not receive any subsidies for the time being. And without subsidies they don’t want to start in Tessenderlo. So it is important to see if that will happen, possibly next year, if a new subsidy round is introduced.
Engie has also not yet stored its plans for a new gas plant in Vilvoorde. Although the project is still not licensed. The Flemish Minister for the Environment Zuhal Demir (N-VA) recently refused the environmental permit. According to Demir, ENGIE would not use the best technology against nitrogen and ammonia emissions. But Engie disputes that. It went to the Council for Permit Disputes to get its exchange licensed.
Good neighbors. Or not?
Our neighboring countries are also counted to solve our supply problem. Too much perhaps, because before 2025 our country is counting on a lot of imports from abroad. In the scenarios there is a quarter to more than 40 percent of our electricity consumption. Because nobody has a glass ball, exact predictions are difficult. But the figures do show the importance of electricity imports in the year 2025.
Our main supplier of electricity is usually France, which has a large nuclear park: 56 reactors (compared to 7 with us). But France itself needs a lot of electricity because the French, much more than us, heat their homes electrically.
If the temperatures at our southern neighbors fall below 7 degrees Celsius, it goes particularly fast: the French need 2.5 extra nuclear reactors per degree lower. Large reactors, of the caliber of Doel 4, the largest reactor in our country.
Le Problème Français
France can still export electricity in normal times. Only the times are no longer normal. France has been struggling with so-called stress corrosion in its nuclear reactors for over a year now. This has caused cracks in the welds of the emergency cooling circuits. This is not slightly discussed in the nuclear sector: every reactor in which the cracks are found must close for immediate repair. In addition, a number of postponed maintenance are also made by the coronac crisis.
Result: 20 of the 56 reactors are currently out, more than 37 percent of total nuclear production. And so France has to introduce more and more electricity, instead of exporting it. Our savior goes in need.
“11 French nuclear reactors are struggling with cracks on welds in an emergency cooling pot, after a year no reactor is active.”
The problem of stress corrosion is more persistent than previously thought. It has been dragging on for a year, after the cracks were first discovered in December 2021 during the maintenance of a reactor. That reactor has still not been restored. In the meantime, there appear to be 11 reactors with the problem. Recently, in November 2 more were added. It could take several more years before all 56 French nuclear reactors have been screened. For example, France itself now warns of the unavailability of its nuclear park, and of overly optimistic estimates.
France warns against France
In a recent report from the Association of European Network Managers (the “European Eliads”), in which the French network operator also cooperated, it can be read: “A large number of nuclear power plants will have to be checked in the coming years. That year 2025 again, when it also becomes very exciting with us.
The French are not the only neighbors who worry us. There is also Germany, which accelerates certain coal-fired power stations and electrifies its economy. Even that neighbor who might otherwise be able to lend a hand will now need his own electricity more than usual. And that situation will continue for a while.
“In the winter ’25 -’26 we may be one big nuclear reactor short, in the winter afterwards even two are,”
In short, very uncertain times, for us and for our neighboring countries. For all these reasons, the government has asked high-voltage network operator Elia to further screen our power supply. What is the chance that in the winter 25-26 (on top of the already gloomy prediction of the French) would be another four extra French nuclear reactors unavailable and we would be in the dark? Elia’s answer: That chance is too great. We may then fall short of one large nuclear reactor. And the winter after that it could already be two.
The government then decided to redo the puzzle for 2025 (and the following years). Keep a few of our nuclear power stations talking a little longer or build extra gas-fired power stations or maybe something else? Minister of Energy Van der Straeten does not exclude any option. In January she comes with her proposals and the government makes the decision.
suggestion
all our energy problems are caused by our own govermen(s)
in short we need lassive upgrades on something we do not own our build our own. lets yust build our own.
its really as simple as that
Liquid salt ( thorium ) is much safer
Liquid salt reactors are rather safe
Fucking up our energy situation will be a reason to get the guillotines out. I hope the ones in charge understand that.
we need atleast 2 extra big power plants extra on top of wat we have now, just to electrify all the cars
Belgium has had some close calls on power outages in the past. And it is even looking worse for the future.
8 comments
Translation in EN (Google translate), 1/2:
Puzzle with nuclear power plants: what do we actually need in 2025?
In 2025 all our nuclear reactors will normally stop. Either final or temporary. How do we get through the winter? Are we going to shift with the operating calendar of our youngest two nuclear reactors? And if so, why is that necessary? Because we didn’t have gas-fired power stations to accommodate those nuclear power plants? If you can no longer see the forest for the trees, we will try to do something about it.
Luc Pauwels, Nina Verhaeghe 06:10
Belgium has two sites with a total of seven nuclear reactors. There are four in Doel (yes four, even though there are only two cooling towers there: Goals 1 and 2 are smaller power stations that do not need extra cooling tower) and three in Tihange. Together they account for 6,000 MW (megawatts) of installed capacity and currently deliver almost half of our electricity.
In 2003, politicians decided that all our nuclear reactors would close after 40 years of service. In the meantime, that period has already been “stretched” for three reactors: Tihange 1, Doel 1 and Doel 2. In 2015, the government decided that these reactors could run ten years longer. (For Tihange 1, that decision fell a little earlier.) As a result, they would close in 2025 instead of 2015.
The year 2025
That means that 2025 will be a very important year. Because then all our nuclear power stations would be stationary. Follow us. Goal 3 has already closed, in principle for good, at the end of September of this year. Tihange 2 then follows second in the row, on February 1 next year. And all others will in principle close in the course of 2025. So of our seven reactors, five will close in one year, in 2025.
In principle, we say, because at the moment the government is negotiating with operator Engie Electrabel for two reactors, Doel 4 and Tihange 3, 10 But those discussions are still ongoing (and are difficult) and the entire legal procedure surrounding it. That is why, according to the current state of law, this is still the official closing calendar: as stated, this scenario can change if an agreement is reached to make Doel 4 and Tihange 3 run longer. You would think that we will be out of trouble from the winter of 2025, but that is not the case. Because even if Doel 4 and Tihange 3 should not be closed definitively in 2025, they have to close temporarily that year to have the works that make it possible for them to run longer.
Close is close
According to the planning of ENGIE Electrabel, the reactors would close around mid-2025 and then be restarted in November 2026. This means that the winter must be bridged 2025-2026 without a nuclear reactor. Whether that closure is then temporary or definitive does not matter at that time. Initially, the government thought it was going through that difficult winter with other means (for example, gas-fired power stations and especially a lot of imports), but in recent months there have been doubts about this. The opposition has always had that doubt, it found nuclear power stations close anyway. But now the government is also worried. “The situation has changed completely in recent months,” it sounds.
Fuel save
The prime minister and the Minister of Energy Tinne Van der Straeten (Green) point to two factors. The war in Ukraine lasts longer than expected, putting our energy situation under pressure. And France, which otherwise can supply us as a neighboring country, is struggling with its own nuclear power plants and that also keeps on dragging. France is now constantly introducing electricity from us, instead of us from them. More about that.
It is in that context of growing uncertainty that this week the plan came up to take a different approach to the difficult winter of 2025-2026. Van der Straeten wants to investigate whether it is possible to keep Doel 4 and Tihange 3 open in that winter, by making them run less in the summer. This way, fuel can be saved in the summer and then bridge the winter. In the jargon it is called Fuel Extension.
“Whether you extend for a few months or ten years: the safety requirements must be observed anyway.” Engie Electrabel
Whether that Fuel Extension is coming is just the question. Operator Engie Electrabel is not enthusiastic to put it mildly. ENGIE points out that a whole legal procedure can also be followed for a short extension and the stricter safety standards must be observed. “Whether it is extended for a few months or ten years, the safety requirements must be complied with”, is part of ENGIE.
Such a Fuel Extension would also create an additional problem. It is therefore considered to shift with the days / weeks on which Doel 4 and Tihange 3 run. (In some scenarios it is also about shifting in the time of the closing date of the three older reactors, but that seems less likely.) The problem is: if your goal 4 and Tihange 3 run at times when they should have been closed for maintenance, move it to the move to And that could mean that we will run into problems in the following winter, in 2026-2027, because the reactors are not yet ready …
Translation EN (Google translate) 2/2:
What about our gas-fired power stations?
You may be wondering: were we not going to solve all this with (additional) gas-fired power stations? First of all this: Contrary to what many people think, there are already a lot of gas-fired power stations in Belgium. We list the most important ones below, together they are good for more than 4,000 megawatts of installed capacity. Then we have all kinds of smaller power stations that supply both heat and electricity, not counted. If you do, we get a power of almost 6000 megawatts. That is as much as our 7 nuclear reactors combined.
This consideration must be made: you cannot simply compare our fleet of gas plants with those of our nuclear power stations. Nuclear power stations are designed to run continuously at full power: our 7 nuclear reactors have had several long periods in which they all together supplied their nearly 6,000 megawatts at full power.
With our current fleet of gas plants, that is virtually impossible. Among other things, there are peak power stations: inefficient, polluting and very expensive and actually not designed to run for a long time. Moreover, there are so many small gas turbines that there are always several maintenance. In addition, quite a few of our gas-fired power stations have a considerable age. They appear to fall out more than the nuclear reactors, partly because they run much more unevenly. They literally give more or less gas when there is less or more solar and wind energy.
That puts the gas fleet under pressure. In practice, the 6,000 megawatts will never be able to run simultaneously, something that our governments also include in their calculations.
“We have almost as many gas-fired power stations as nuclear power plants, but we never get them to talk at the same time.”
The high gas price due to the war in Ukraine makes it less evident to use gas-fired power stations. They are nevertheless needed to compensate for the loss of our nuclear power plants. That is why the government has already awarded subsidies to two new gas-fired power stations, one in Seraing (from manager Luminus) and one in Les Awirs, at Liège (from manager Engie).
There is still discussion about whether two extra gas-fired power stations will suffice. That is why there is another one on the reserve bench: in Limburg, the Tessenderlo Chemie group has a permit to also build a new gas plant. Only he will not receive any subsidies for the time being. And without subsidies they don’t want to start in Tessenderlo. So it is important to see if that will happen, possibly next year, if a new subsidy round is introduced.
Engie has also not yet stored its plans for a new gas plant in Vilvoorde. Although the project is still not licensed. The Flemish Minister for the Environment Zuhal Demir (N-VA) recently refused the environmental permit. According to Demir, ENGIE would not use the best technology against nitrogen and ammonia emissions. But Engie disputes that. It went to the Council for Permit Disputes to get its exchange licensed.
Good neighbors. Or not?
Our neighboring countries are also counted to solve our supply problem. Too much perhaps, because before 2025 our country is counting on a lot of imports from abroad. In the scenarios there is a quarter to more than 40 percent of our electricity consumption. Because nobody has a glass ball, exact predictions are difficult. But the figures do show the importance of electricity imports in the year 2025.
Our main supplier of electricity is usually France, which has a large nuclear park: 56 reactors (compared to 7 with us). But France itself needs a lot of electricity because the French, much more than us, heat their homes electrically.
If the temperatures at our southern neighbors fall below 7 degrees Celsius, it goes particularly fast: the French need 2.5 extra nuclear reactors per degree lower. Large reactors, of the caliber of Doel 4, the largest reactor in our country.
Le Problème Français
France can still export electricity in normal times. Only the times are no longer normal. France has been struggling with so-called stress corrosion in its nuclear reactors for over a year now. This has caused cracks in the welds of the emergency cooling circuits. This is not slightly discussed in the nuclear sector: every reactor in which the cracks are found must close for immediate repair. In addition, a number of postponed maintenance are also made by the coronac crisis.
Result: 20 of the 56 reactors are currently out, more than 37 percent of total nuclear production. And so France has to introduce more and more electricity, instead of exporting it. Our savior goes in need.
“11 French nuclear reactors are struggling with cracks on welds in an emergency cooling pot, after a year no reactor is active.”
The problem of stress corrosion is more persistent than previously thought. It has been dragging on for a year, after the cracks were first discovered in December 2021 during the maintenance of a reactor. That reactor has still not been restored. In the meantime, there appear to be 11 reactors with the problem. Recently, in November 2 more were added. It could take several more years before all 56 French nuclear reactors have been screened. For example, France itself now warns of the unavailability of its nuclear park, and of overly optimistic estimates.
France warns against France
In a recent report from the Association of European Network Managers (the “European Eliads”), in which the French network operator also cooperated, it can be read: “A large number of nuclear power plants will have to be checked in the coming years. That year 2025 again, when it also becomes very exciting with us.
The French are not the only neighbors who worry us. There is also Germany, which accelerates certain coal-fired power stations and electrifies its economy. Even that neighbor who might otherwise be able to lend a hand will now need his own electricity more than usual. And that situation will continue for a while.
“In the winter ’25 -’26 we may be one big nuclear reactor short, in the winter afterwards even two are,”
In short, very uncertain times, for us and for our neighboring countries. For all these reasons, the government has asked high-voltage network operator Elia to further screen our power supply. What is the chance that in the winter 25-26 (on top of the already gloomy prediction of the French) would be another four extra French nuclear reactors unavailable and we would be in the dark? Elia’s answer: That chance is too great. We may then fall short of one large nuclear reactor. And the winter after that it could already be two.
The government then decided to redo the puzzle for 2025 (and the following years). Keep a few of our nuclear power stations talking a little longer or build extra gas-fired power stations or maybe something else? Minister of Energy Van der Straeten does not exclude any option. In January she comes with her proposals and the government makes the decision.
suggestion
all our energy problems are caused by our own govermen(s)
in short we need lassive upgrades on something we do not own our build our own. lets yust build our own.
its really as simple as that
Liquid salt ( thorium ) is much safer
Liquid salt reactors are rather safe
Fucking up our energy situation will be a reason to get the guillotines out. I hope the ones in charge understand that.
we need atleast 2 extra big power plants extra on top of wat we have now, just to electrify all the cars
Belgium has had some close calls on power outages in the past. And it is even looking worse for the future.