I’ll be honest this looks like a very generous interpretation of French pre war analysis
Finland and especially Poland are very surprising
I dont think this map is credible
Not only does this not cite a source, as an analysis it’s so overly reductive it’s pretty much meaningless.
Not to mention that at the eve of the invasion, all the experts were convinced it was just posturing, so the claim that any of these govs genuinely believed it would happen is suspect at best. It also really overvalues the influence of US intel here – people think they played a major role because they keep insisting they do, which seems like the opposite of what intelligence services ought to do when doing well.
Germany *Shocked Pikachu face*
it was a shock for me as a russian citizen (yes, even with crimea in 2014).
fuck putin and all who support him
Besides numerous countries in Europe not accounted for, can we see a source for this information? Until then I call bullshit.
Blue gang 😎
Based Baltics.
Don’t know about this map but I certainly was one of the “he wouldn’t, he’d be too stupid to try” people before Putin declared his “military operation”
It’s funny to think that a fucking random aspiring history teacher had better intelligence than the russian government when it comes to their possible success; I even gave Putin the benefit of the doubt thinking his aim was just simply destabilizing Ukraine as much as possible and the total opposite thing happened…
We always knew, but the little Nordic bros as well? Also Poland? Wtf?
Nah man. I call some bs on this.
It was obvious they wanted to, but I couldn’t believe they’d be so stupid. Guess I was wrong.
> Methodology
> ECFR-affiliated researchers in the 27 EU member states responded to the Russia power audit questionnaire on the basis of interviews they conducted with decision-makers and members of the wider political class in their country. This means that the outcome is neither a public opinion survey nor a collection of official positions and talking points. Instead, the aspiration is to acquire an understanding of the political class across the EU 27 that tries to probe deeper undercurrents of thinking: considerations affecting different countries’ decision-making and the constraints in which the individual countries operate
Poland prepared beforehand to take ukrainian refugees. I think they expected it
Czechs being the poster child of generational trauma despite having open russian ~~collaborator~~ fanboy with way too much power for a president.
I always knew it was a matter of time. It will be a matter of time after Ukraine as well if we leave Russia as it is now.
How were you surprised I don’t understand… Georgians (and not only) were screaming since the 1920s, later from the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s… Since 1990, just 32 years yes? In 32 years Russia invaded Chechnya 2 times, Georgia 3 times, and Ukraine 2 times, committing a crazy amount of war crimes and unbelievable atrocities, cause what you heard in Ukraine that’s nothing new, that happened everywhere where Russians invaded, EVERYWHERE! We continued screaming, but it was still a surprise somehow. Cause you never cared or listened. Just like in 2008, when the Baltic countries and Poland wanted to have a conversation with Sarkozy in Georgia during negotiations and Sarkozy answered to the Polish president, [“I’ll meet you, but not those little ones”](https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1535935733952917504).
This is why power is in your hands Europeans, you have to wake up and demand if you really want to stop it, otherwise, nothing will change as nothing has been changing in the past decades, 1-2 years of sanctions, and back to business… This is not right.
We will never forget what you have done to our country. You motherfuckers. 🇨🇿❤️
In Finland, we have been preparing since WWII. Thus, only a surprise, not a shock.
These are strange poll options…
I was shocked but not surprised.
Well, I know many people who did not believe this war would actually take place, though.
Those are strange options.
​
Just to give my own personal answer:
​
Yes. I heard the warnings of the US intelligence, but I still did not think that Putin would be stupid enough and more importantly, the warnings came from the same US intelligence that told us about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, killed babies in Iraq, spied on European politicians, runs an illegal torture prison… in other words: The US has lied so many times, that it is almost impossible to believe them.
For me, this war is not justified but it was provoked.
Little naive me really thought putin wasn’t so stupid to try, given that the Donbass situation was enough to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
Gave the guy too much credit.
Personally what seal the deal for me was that around Christmas of 2021 we already knew that Russia send mobile crematoriums and blood banks to the border.
I wonder what china invading Taiwan version of this looks like
For me, the thing that convinced me they were going to invade was when we learned they were building blood banks, field hospitals and were bringing mobile crematoriums to the border.
That was kind of a “oh no” moment for me.
Romanian here: yes, but honestly, I’m more surprised like, since when is Ukraine a bastion against Russia? To me Ukraine is (was) like Belarus, took full advantage of Russian and Soviet expansionism.
that are the public statements of politicians, so worth nothing. Merkel recently admitted that she was a war was inevitable after 2014.
I personally thought there will be another annexation without much shooting on Donbas like it was on Crimea, and that will be it. I didn’t believe Putin is such an idiot to start large war.
32 comments
[Original source here](https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-old-is-dying-and-the-new-cannot-be-born-a-power-audit-of-eu-russia-relations/)
I’ll be honest this looks like a very generous interpretation of French pre war analysis
Finland and especially Poland are very surprising
I dont think this map is credible
Not only does this not cite a source, as an analysis it’s so overly reductive it’s pretty much meaningless.
Not to mention that at the eve of the invasion, all the experts were convinced it was just posturing, so the claim that any of these govs genuinely believed it would happen is suspect at best. It also really overvalues the influence of US intel here – people think they played a major role because they keep insisting they do, which seems like the opposite of what intelligence services ought to do when doing well.
Germany *Shocked Pikachu face*
it was a shock for me as a russian citizen (yes, even with crimea in 2014).
fuck putin and all who support him
Besides numerous countries in Europe not accounted for, can we see a source for this information? Until then I call bullshit.
Blue gang 😎
Based Baltics.
Don’t know about this map but I certainly was one of the “he wouldn’t, he’d be too stupid to try” people before Putin declared his “military operation”
It’s funny to think that a fucking random aspiring history teacher had better intelligence than the russian government when it comes to their possible success; I even gave Putin the benefit of the doubt thinking his aim was just simply destabilizing Ukraine as much as possible and the total opposite thing happened…
We always knew, but the little Nordic bros as well? Also Poland? Wtf?
Nah man. I call some bs on this.
It was obvious they wanted to, but I couldn’t believe they’d be so stupid. Guess I was wrong.
> Methodology
> ECFR-affiliated researchers in the 27 EU member states responded to the Russia power audit questionnaire on the basis of interviews they conducted with decision-makers and members of the wider political class in their country. This means that the outcome is neither a public opinion survey nor a collection of official positions and talking points. Instead, the aspiration is to acquire an understanding of the political class across the EU 27 that tries to probe deeper undercurrents of thinking: considerations affecting different countries’ decision-making and the constraints in which the individual countries operate
Poland prepared beforehand to take ukrainian refugees. I think they expected it
Czechs being the poster child of generational trauma despite having open russian ~~collaborator~~ fanboy with way too much power for a president.
I always knew it was a matter of time. It will be a matter of time after Ukraine as well if we leave Russia as it is now.
How were you surprised I don’t understand… Georgians (and not only) were screaming since the 1920s, later from the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s… Since 1990, just 32 years yes? In 32 years Russia invaded Chechnya 2 times, Georgia 3 times, and Ukraine 2 times, committing a crazy amount of war crimes and unbelievable atrocities, cause what you heard in Ukraine that’s nothing new, that happened everywhere where Russians invaded, EVERYWHERE! We continued screaming, but it was still a surprise somehow. Cause you never cared or listened. Just like in 2008, when the Baltic countries and Poland wanted to have a conversation with Sarkozy in Georgia during negotiations and Sarkozy answered to the Polish president, [“I’ll meet you, but not those little ones”](https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1535935733952917504).
This is why power is in your hands Europeans, you have to wake up and demand if you really want to stop it, otherwise, nothing will change as nothing has been changing in the past decades, 1-2 years of sanctions, and back to business… This is not right.
We will never forget what you have done to our country. You motherfuckers. 🇨🇿❤️
In Finland, we have been preparing since WWII. Thus, only a surprise, not a shock.
These are strange poll options…
I was shocked but not surprised.
Well, I know many people who did not believe this war would actually take place, though.
Those are strange options.
​
Just to give my own personal answer:
​
Yes. I heard the warnings of the US intelligence, but I still did not think that Putin would be stupid enough and more importantly, the warnings came from the same US intelligence that told us about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, killed babies in Iraq, spied on European politicians, runs an illegal torture prison… in other words: The US has lied so many times, that it is almost impossible to believe them.
For me, this war is not justified but it was provoked.
Little naive me really thought putin wasn’t so stupid to try, given that the Donbass situation was enough to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO.
Gave the guy too much credit.
Personally what seal the deal for me was that around Christmas of 2021 we already knew that Russia send mobile crematoriums and blood banks to the border.
I wonder what china invading Taiwan version of this looks like
For me, the thing that convinced me they were going to invade was when we learned they were building blood banks, field hospitals and were bringing mobile crematoriums to the border.
That was kind of a “oh no” moment for me.
Romanian here: yes, but honestly, I’m more surprised like, since when is Ukraine a bastion against Russia? To me Ukraine is (was) like Belarus, took full advantage of Russian and Soviet expansionism.
that are the public statements of politicians, so worth nothing. Merkel recently admitted that she was a war was inevitable after 2014.
I personally thought there will be another annexation without much shooting on Donbas like it was on Crimea, and that will be it. I didn’t believe Putin is such an idiot to start large war.
Stupid answers to pick from.