Nicola Sturgeon is preparing to row back on her plan to make the next general election a “de facto referendum” on Scottish independence.
The first minister said in June that she would begin negotiations to take Scotland out of the UK if parties that support leaving the union win more than 50 per cent of the popular vote at the next general election.
The SNP’s ruling national executive committee will be presented with an alternative option today, however, that offers a severely watered down version of her bold statement last year.
The document, seen by The Times, says votes for the SNP would be treated merely as a show of support for a second referendum rather than backing for separation. In this second option the bar for victory at the election — due to be held in 2024 — has been lowered from more than 50 per cent of the vote to a simple majority of nationalist MPs, which would be treated as a sign of support for a second referendum.
This would be taken as a mandate “for the necessary transfer of power [from] the UK government” rather than the more difficult task of persuading more than 50 per cent of voters to back the party.
The watered down strategy is practically indistinguishable from every election since Brexit, in which the SNP has won the largest share of seats and wielded it as a mandate for a second referendum.
If Westminster does not recognise the SNP’s “mandate” for another referendum in 2024, the party would make the next Holyrood election in 2026 the “de facto referendum” instead.
Sturgeon’s critics within the SNP doubt her resolve to hold a referendum and have accused her of dithering. She is said to be “exasperated” after Ian Blackford, her ally, was ousted as party leader at Westminster on December 1.
In what has been seen as a sign that Sturgeon’s authority is waning, Alison Thewliss, her preferred successor, failed to prevent Stephen Flynn from taking over Blackford’s role.
A source close to the first minister suggested that she would have to resign if she failed to win more than 50 per cent support for pro-independence parties at the next general election.
Anger among MPs about that referendum plan was a factor in Blackford’s departure. The original de facto referendum plan as previously set out by Sturgeon is also proposed in the four-page paper.
“These are the options which, in the opinion of the NEC, are credible and deliverable,” it says. “There are arguments for each of these options relating, for example, to the timing, franchise and nature of the different elections. However, it is recognised that others may propose different approaches and given the importance of this decision to both party and nation, the NEC wishes to enable the fullest possible debate.”
The NEC will not be asked to choose between the two options when it meets today. The shift towards another option may be welcomed by party critics.
Rishi Sunak yesterday dismissed Sturgeon’s strategy to make parliamentary elections a plebiscite on the single issue of independence.
Speaking on his first visit to Scotland as prime minister, at Cromarty Port, he said: “People vote for all sorts of things in general elections.”
Sunak confirmed that Sturgeon discussed her plans for a second referendum “a little bit” when they met for dinner in Inverness on Thursday.
Alister Jack, the secretary of state for Scotland who was also at the dinner, said: “It was actually one of her staff who brought up the subject. As I have said many times . . . you can’t have a mandate for something that you have no power over. The power rests with Westminster.”
> Election to be ‘show of support for second vote’
There’s a shock. SNP will want every election for the rest of time to be fought on a “show of support for second vote” rather than any other issue
Smart move. The SNP would be better off focusing on long term plans than trying to secure an immediate referendum that they’d likely lose.
Scotland is fucked until we get rid of this idiot and her separatist ambitions.
I’m not Scottish but I think if I was, I’d be really sick of the single-issue politics by now.
I find it weird that the SNP act as if a quirk of FPTP punishing vote splitting, an electoral system they are usually against, somehow gives them a mandate. Labour, Tories and the Lib Dem’s alone got 53.2% of the vote at the last election, if we are pretending GE votes are quasi independence referendums, the SNP lost.
If we are looking at the most recent opinion poll, which is Savanta’s as far as I’m aware, they are still losing. If Scotland want to be independent that’s absolutely fine, but can we stop pretending votes where independence is a tiny proportion of what’s being voted on at absolute best, are “quasi referendums”?
They are just waiting for Sinak to offend everyone by interfering with the Gender Recognition bill.
That would be a huge boost to the SNP!
We had this little social experiment a while back where we said all our problems where because of being a part of this other big thing and we’d all be better off if we left that big thing and just did our own thing. We hired a bus and everything. It was great 👍
We’ll alway be stronger together so let’s just stop now please.
Ban Scexit from the sub please. Almost as bad as potus and scotus.
Sub filled with a majority of southerners attempting to provide commentary on how Scottish people should feel.
The Scottish people don’t want independence even though this sock puppet keeps dragging up the issue. Scots are sick and tired of this fraud and her egomaniacs. But this lot will keep pushing this single topic until they get it on the fifthteenth attempt then say that’s their independence mandate.
Good. The polls look pretty bad for Independence given the momentum thrown behind it by the SNP. They seriously overestimate how much appeal it has.
It’s a tory wet wipe of a toilet paper and not to be taken seriously it’ll be full speed ahead to independence when the time is right. Sturgeon would make a great prime minister.
When asked for comment on this concession i suspect Sturgeon said – ‘This makes a great case for independence’
Of course, it never had any legitimacy in the first place.
At this point you could ask Sturgeon what she wants for dinner and it would be a referendum ffs.
16 comments
**Article text**
Election to be ‘show of support for second vote’
Nicola Sturgeon is preparing to row back on her plan to make the next general election a “de facto referendum” on Scottish independence.
The first minister said in June that she would begin negotiations to take Scotland out of the UK if parties that support leaving the union win more than 50 per cent of the popular vote at the next general election.
The SNP’s ruling national executive committee will be presented with an alternative option today, however, that offers a severely watered down version of her bold statement last year.
The document, seen by The Times, says votes for the SNP would be treated merely as a show of support for a second referendum rather than backing for separation. In this second option the bar for victory at the election — due to be held in 2024 — has been lowered from more than 50 per cent of the vote to a simple majority of nationalist MPs, which would be treated as a sign of support for a second referendum.
This would be taken as a mandate “for the necessary transfer of power [from] the UK government” rather than the more difficult task of persuading more than 50 per cent of voters to back the party.
The watered down strategy is practically indistinguishable from every election since Brexit, in which the SNP has won the largest share of seats and wielded it as a mandate for a second referendum.
If Westminster does not recognise the SNP’s “mandate” for another referendum in 2024, the party would make the next Holyrood election in 2026 the “de facto referendum” instead.
Sturgeon’s critics within the SNP doubt her resolve to hold a referendum and have accused her of dithering. She is said to be “exasperated” after Ian Blackford, her ally, was ousted as party leader at Westminster on December 1.
In what has been seen as a sign that Sturgeon’s authority is waning, Alison Thewliss, her preferred successor, failed to prevent Stephen Flynn from taking over Blackford’s role.
A source close to the first minister suggested that she would have to resign if she failed to win more than 50 per cent support for pro-independence parties at the next general election.
Anger among MPs about that referendum plan was a factor in Blackford’s departure. The original de facto referendum plan as previously set out by Sturgeon is also proposed in the four-page paper.
“These are the options which, in the opinion of the NEC, are credible and deliverable,” it says. “There are arguments for each of these options relating, for example, to the timing, franchise and nature of the different elections. However, it is recognised that others may propose different approaches and given the importance of this decision to both party and nation, the NEC wishes to enable the fullest possible debate.”
The NEC will not be asked to choose between the two options when it meets today. The shift towards another option may be welcomed by party critics.
Rishi Sunak yesterday dismissed Sturgeon’s strategy to make parliamentary elections a plebiscite on the single issue of independence.
Speaking on his first visit to Scotland as prime minister, at Cromarty Port, he said: “People vote for all sorts of things in general elections.”
Sunak confirmed that Sturgeon discussed her plans for a second referendum “a little bit” when they met for dinner in Inverness on Thursday.
Alister Jack, the secretary of state for Scotland who was also at the dinner, said: “It was actually one of her staff who brought up the subject. As I have said many times . . . you can’t have a mandate for something that you have no power over. The power rests with Westminster.”
> Election to be ‘show of support for second vote’
There’s a shock. SNP will want every election for the rest of time to be fought on a “show of support for second vote” rather than any other issue
Smart move. The SNP would be better off focusing on long term plans than trying to secure an immediate referendum that they’d likely lose.
Scotland is fucked until we get rid of this idiot and her separatist ambitions.
I’m not Scottish but I think if I was, I’d be really sick of the single-issue politics by now.
I find it weird that the SNP act as if a quirk of FPTP punishing vote splitting, an electoral system they are usually against, somehow gives them a mandate. Labour, Tories and the Lib Dem’s alone got 53.2% of the vote at the last election, if we are pretending GE votes are quasi independence referendums, the SNP lost.
If we are looking at the most recent opinion poll, which is Savanta’s as far as I’m aware, they are still losing. If Scotland want to be independent that’s absolutely fine, but can we stop pretending votes where independence is a tiny proportion of what’s being voted on at absolute best, are “quasi referendums”?
They are just waiting for Sinak to offend everyone by interfering with the Gender Recognition bill.
That would be a huge boost to the SNP!
We had this little social experiment a while back where we said all our problems where because of being a part of this other big thing and we’d all be better off if we left that big thing and just did our own thing. We hired a bus and everything. It was great 👍
We’ll alway be stronger together so let’s just stop now please.
Ban Scexit from the sub please. Almost as bad as potus and scotus.
Sub filled with a majority of southerners attempting to provide commentary on how Scottish people should feel.
The Scottish people don’t want independence even though this sock puppet keeps dragging up the issue. Scots are sick and tired of this fraud and her egomaniacs. But this lot will keep pushing this single topic until they get it on the fifthteenth attempt then say that’s their independence mandate.
Good. The polls look pretty bad for Independence given the momentum thrown behind it by the SNP. They seriously overestimate how much appeal it has.
It’s a tory wet wipe of a toilet paper and not to be taken seriously it’ll be full speed ahead to independence when the time is right. Sturgeon would make a great prime minister.
When asked for comment on this concession i suspect Sturgeon said – ‘This makes a great case for independence’
Of course, it never had any legitimacy in the first place.
At this point you could ask Sturgeon what she wants for dinner and it would be a referendum ffs.