Ukrajnai háború, csütörtök reggel

-németország csak akkor enged Leopardokat ukrajnába vinni, ha az [USA küld Abramsokat ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-wont-allow-exports-of-german-tanks-to-ukraine-unless-u-s-sends-own-tanks-officials-say-11674069352 )
-belaruszi Baranovichi reptérre vitt [orosz erők ](https://convo.casa/@RouxJ/109712195016333272 ), műholdképen
-Zelensky davosi [beszéde ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGxw1sq3SkM )
-esti kijevi Teatralna metró [táncház ](https://mastodon.online/@ChristopherJM/109711266634256393 )
-az orosz börtönökbe zár ukránokat [kínozzák, eltüntetik ](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-donetsk-business-prisons-59837e2f8006bfd1dc3347522e87efc5 )
##orosz sorozás/mobilizálás
-orosz mobilizáltak panaszkodnak, hogy [dezertőrnek tartják őket, pedig csak parancsot teljesítettek ](https://mastodon.online/@Euan_MacDonald/109712398407388249 ), csak a parancsnokuk utólag letagadta
##fegyverrendszerek
-az USA [100 Strykert küld ](https://fed.celp.de/system/media_attachments/files/109/714/033/505/295/503/original/1aaffd653282429e.jpg ), a következő [2.5milliárd$-os csomag részeként ](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-technology-45417ab5b91036fc291cedf357533509 ), a 20.-ai Ramstein konferencián lesz [véglegesítve a csomag ](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/18/major-military-package-ukraine-russia-00078331 )
-ukránpárti csecsenek demonstrálják az emberek elleni harcra átalakított [RPG-t ](https://mastodon.online/@Euan_MacDonald/109713988705954173 ), tüzoltó készülékbe került robbanóanyag és repeszek
-ukrán [HMMWV tankellenes BGM-71 TOW rakéta és Browning M2 géppuska ](https://media.mstdn.social/media_attachments/files/109/712/543/288/261/586/original/08e3125df60dd98b.jpg )
-ukrán [BM-27 Uragan MRLS ](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/109709486086025007 )
-Kanada [200 Senator páncélost küld ](https://s3.c.im/media_attachments/files/109/710/505/853/073/897/original/9cc6a104dff09721.jpg )
##friss térképek
-kicsit előrébb kerültek az oroszok [észak Bakhmutnál ](https://media.mstdn.social/media_attachments/files/109/713/169/022/600/483/original/5d8c0ddda94bd4ed.png )
-az ukránok HIMARS GMRLS rakétával kb. 70km-re tudtak ellőni, a most várható [GLSDB-vel 125km-re ](https://files.nafo.uk/media_attachments/files/109/712/098/654/798/175/original/e4a0b5a91ac291d5.jpg ) Ground-launched Small Diameter Bomb, most fejlesztették ki, ráaplikáltak egy kis precíziós bombát a raktáron lévő régi HIMARS-hoz való rakétákra
-teljes nap [térképeken ](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1615773669464367104.html )
##Veszteségek
-bakhmuti [utcakép ](https://convo.casa/@RouxJ/109712487777273706 )
-Stugna-P [találat ](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/109711625575927109 )
-a wagner börtönben toborzott katonáinak [~10%-a éli meg a fél éves szerződés végét ](https://mastodon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/109709256705483369 )
-drón videók [Soledar ](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/109709452812389956 )
-orosz [veszteségek ](https://media.mas.to/masto-public/media_attachments/files/109/708/988/711/134/676/original/9d44d61f3905dbca.png ), 820 troop losses, 7-day troop average: 687, 36 equipment* losses, 7-day equipment* average: 30
-Mariinka drónról, nem marad [ép ház ](https://social.kyiv.dcomm.net.ua/@UkraineWorld/109709997418559058 )
-egy ovoda udvarrára lezuhant az ukránt belügyminiszert szállító helikopter [17 halott ](https://b.convo.casa/media_attachments/files/109/710/238/759/717/173/original/5e2d3c754b1c0727.jpg ), kötük 4 gyerek, becsapódás utáni [videó ](https://social.kyiv.dcomm.net.ua/@UkraineWorld/109709452642416616 )
-2 orosz tank kap [telitalálatot ](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/109710360658598911 )
-soledar környékén [orosz lövészárok drónról ](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/109710589486954706 )
##ISW
[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 18, 2023](http://isw.pub/UkrWar011823 )
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the siege of Leningrad continued to illustrate that Putin remains uncertain about his ability to significantly shape the Russian information space.
Putin’s speech is likely part of a larger informational effort to wrap the “special military operation” inside the greater Russian national mythos of the Great Patriotic War (the Second World War) to increase Russian support for a protracted war and mobilization.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov augmented these efforts to increase Russian support for a protracted war by explicitly and ludicrously claiming that Ukraine and the West are pursuing the genocide of the Russian people.
Putin continues efforts to reinvigorate Russia’s defense industrial base to support a protracted war in Ukraine.
Putin and Lavrov continue to deny Ukrainian sovereignty and outright reject direct negotiations with Ukraine.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is becoming increasingly bold in his verbal attacks against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin.
Prigozhin and other notable voices in Russia are carving out a new space to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin without fear of retribution.
Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near Kreminna.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
The Russian MoD continues to attempt to downplay the role of the Wagner Group in claimed tactical advances in the Soledar area.
Ukrainian officials have indicated that Russian forces are concentrating in Zaporizhia Oblast, possibly for a large defensive or offensive effort.
Russian forces’ increasing use of incendiary munitions to conduct what appear to be otherwise routine strikes in southern Ukraine supports ISW’s recent assessment that Russian forces likely face a shortage of conventional artillery rounds.
Ukrainian and Russian sources continued to indicate that Russian authorities are likely preparing for a second wave of mobilization.
##Vége
[ szerda reggel ](https://redd.it/10f0113 )