Überall fehlt Personal – und das Zuwanderungs-Reservoir versiegt | Staff shortages everywhere – and the immigration reservoir is drying up (German: translation in the comments)
Überall fehlt Personal – und das Zuwanderungs-Reservoir versiegt | Staff shortages everywhere – and the immigration reservoir is drying up (German: translation in the comments)
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The employers’ association complains about an acute labour shortage. But according to one expert, more immigration is not a solution in the long run, because many countries are bringing their people back.
After a few years of relative calm, immigration is once again becoming an issue in Switzerland. Soon the 9 million population mark is likely to be exceeded. This is also, but not only, due to the Ukraine refugees. The economy and the state service sector are complaining about a worsening labour shortage.
Who hasn’t had to deal with restaurants that had to limit their opening hours or close down because of a lack of staff? The situation is also difficult in hospitals, where entire wards are being closed. The Swiss Employers’ Association (SAV) warns that the labour shortage remains “acute” despite the economic slowdown.
The economic forecasts are less than exhilarating. In such cases, job cuts often occur. Today, however, even vacancies can often only be filled with difficulty, it was said at the presentation of the SAV employment barometer in Zurich on Tuesday. “There hasn’t been anything like this for decades,” said Director Roland Müller.
__Difficult to find accommodation__
Companies are still trying to help themselves with immigration from European countries via the free movement of persons with the EU. This has undesirable side effects, because at the same time residential construction activity is weakening. The impending housing shortage, which a Raiffeisen study warned of last year, is increasingly being recognised as a problem.
Economy Minister Guy Parmelin warned in the “Sonntagszeitung” of socio-political tensions “if rents rise and people with modest incomes can no longer find a place to live”. And even people with good incomes are finding it increasingly difficult to find housing in the big cities, the Tamedia newspapers said on Tuesday.
__Is the 10-million Switzerland coming?__
This is grist to the SVP’s mill, which is trying to manage the immigration issue in an election year, among other things with a planned new popular initiative. In the longer term, however, there are signs of a trend reversal. Because the population is ageing throughout Europe, immigration is threatening to dry up as a reservoir of labour.
Hendrik Budliger, founder of the Competence Centre for Demography in Basel, warned of this scenario at the media conference on Tuesday. He had already expressed doubts in the “Sonntagszeitung” that the 10 million Swiss population forecast by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and denounced by the SVP would ever be reached.
__Portuguese return__
For Switzerland is not only experiencing strong immigration. Emigration has also been tending to increase for years, which “is discussed far too little”, says Budliger. In view of their demographic problem, more and more countries are making efforts to retain their workforce or lure them home. Hendrik Budliger mentioned Portugal as an example.
In many people’s minds, Portugal is a poor emigration country. The reality is different. “Portugal has experienced strong growth since the financial crisis in 2008,” Budliger told watson. Which is why Switzerland’s migration balance with Portugal has already been negative since 2019. Not only pensioners are returning, but also families with children.
__High wages, but …__
“We are losing workers and taxpayers,” Budliger said. This is also true of other countries. Italy, for example, is doing a lot to retain and bring back workers: “This will increase.” The situation is similar in Germany. “Even Germans naturalised in Switzerland are returning,” SAV chief economist Simon Wey told watson.
The Federal Statistical Office points to the significantly higher wage level compared to other countries as justification for its 10-million scenario. Hendrik Budliger puts it into perspective: “Switzerland is attractive, but it is also expensive. The decisive factor is the overall package, and here Switzerland has fewer and fewer advantages. Rising rents are likely to exacerbate the problem.
__An end to “mini-stints”__
But what can Switzerland do about the labour shortage? Increased immigration from third countries, which is being debated in Germany, is not very realistic in view of the SVP. That is why the employers’ association wants to start with the hours worked. Above all, it wants to fight the “mini-staff” of less than 40 per cent.
Director Roland Müller formulated three points: The actual working hours must be increased. At the same time, the extra work must be rewarded. This is often not the case today for married people because of the tax burden (keyword: marriage penalty). And finally, there needs to be “functioning, affordable and ubiquitous childcare”.
__Wealth as an “obstacle”__
In Switzerland, childcare mostly has to be paid for by the parents themselves, unlike in many other countries. A good example is France, which also has a better population forecast than others because of its expanded and state-funded childcare structures. For Roland Müller, it is clear that parental contributions must be lowered.
However, many in Switzerland work mini-staff jobs because they can afford it. “We have a high level of prosperity,” Müller admitted in response to a question from watson. He understands the desire for more work-life balance among men as well. Therefore, the framework conditions must be designed in such a way that increases in working hours are worthwhile.
From the employers’ point of view, this includes not only more childcare but also individual taxation. In both cases, opposition from the SVP is inevitable. The SAV is under no illusions that it will exploit the immigration issue in the election year, even though it has no solutions for the real labour shortage.
Good, goood