-Russia will win and that is only because of numbers.
-Look at history. Russia’s only strategy is throwing gigantic numbers at the enemy and over time winning the war but with enormous casualties.
-Direct result of literally millions of young Russian men lost in war will be that Russia will be militarily weak and will not have enough young men to work and be in the military.
-Short period of rebuilding will happen.
-Russia will do another Chechen war type of invasion where they invade a much smaller weaker country (that will not have big global support like Ukraine)
-That country will be either a small country in Caucasuses or maybe even Kazakhstan or another central Asian country. But most likely Moldova
-Then they’ll keep going until the west finally steps up and goes full blown war which will cause a world war.
-This will all happen by around 2050
Have the people of Ukraine voted on this? The only number I’m sure of is that eight million Ukrainians voted with their feet, effectively ceding territory and not even getting peace in return.
This is how the Irish Civil war started. There are far more heavy weapons in the hands of multiple factions that have been absorbed into (para?) Military forces.
Not a mind that the current conflict may go on for years but armed rebels against ceding territory could be a disaster .
There is no point in ceding territory – because it will not bring peace.
The only way it can work if Ukraine exchanges territory for meaningful security guarantees, which is either nuclear weapons (similar to Israel) or NATO membership and NATO troops at demarcation line (similar to South Korea).
Without this – any compromise with Russia means that Russia can just repeat same trick again and again until they get everything. And when it happens – West will have to play same game, but now with bigger Russia and in some other country (most likely Baltics).
It’s not in the West’s interest to tell Ukraine to concede territory for peace.
Even if you put aside all humanitarian, economic, security etc. matters that directly pertain to Russian presence in the region, I can’t stress enough how bad of a moment in history it is for us to send a message that anyone can fuck with the West and get something out of it as long as they have some means of causing mayhem and act crazy enough to spook us with it.
No, it is not. And I am absolutely in favour of supporting Ukraine in retaking *all* its territory, including Crimea.
But if I may play devil’s advocate for a second: it’s not Ukraine’s prerogative either to expect the West to support its state budget and military indefinitely. The West cannot force Ukraine to give up on these territories, but it can wind down aid until Ukraine *has* to accept it.
This should be obvious, but some people seem to have a hard time understanding this. It’s unbelievably arrogant to think anyone but Ukrainians are going to decide when and how they will stop fighting.
For a start, the war is not won. And while I would wager on Ukraine, the tribunal of weapons has not spoken yet.
But it is foolish to think the West will not have an influence on the peace. It might not be moral but it will be the case. That doesn’t mean throwing the Ukrainians under the bus either. At this stage I don’t see much of a reason to push for territorial concessions though. Russia has doubled down and is preparing for a long one. So should we.
Well, I’m not the west and I tell them to not concede anything and to take back everything they lost!
If I were the west, I would’ve said the same thing.
Russia doesn’t deserve anything!
They already had the biggest country on they planet and they were not happy.
If we had a global police and justice system, after all the raping, maiming, torturing and killing so may people in Ukraine, wit would’ve bee Russia who had to concede some land to compensate a bit what all the awful things they’ve done!
At least taking some of their money and things and giving them to Ukraine is something like that.
9 comments
-This war will go on for many more years.
-Russia will win and that is only because of numbers.
-Look at history. Russia’s only strategy is throwing gigantic numbers at the enemy and over time winning the war but with enormous casualties.
-Direct result of literally millions of young Russian men lost in war will be that Russia will be militarily weak and will not have enough young men to work and be in the military.
-Short period of rebuilding will happen.
-Russia will do another Chechen war type of invasion where they invade a much smaller weaker country (that will not have big global support like Ukraine)
-That country will be either a small country in Caucasuses or maybe even Kazakhstan or another central Asian country. But most likely Moldova
-Then they’ll keep going until the west finally steps up and goes full blown war which will cause a world war.
-This will all happen by around 2050
Have the people of Ukraine voted on this? The only number I’m sure of is that eight million Ukrainians voted with their feet, effectively ceding territory and not even getting peace in return.
This is how the Irish Civil war started. There are far more heavy weapons in the hands of multiple factions that have been absorbed into (para?) Military forces.
Not a mind that the current conflict may go on for years but armed rebels against ceding territory could be a disaster .
There is no point in ceding territory – because it will not bring peace.
The only way it can work if Ukraine exchanges territory for meaningful security guarantees, which is either nuclear weapons (similar to Israel) or NATO membership and NATO troops at demarcation line (similar to South Korea).
Without this – any compromise with Russia means that Russia can just repeat same trick again and again until they get everything. And when it happens – West will have to play same game, but now with bigger Russia and in some other country (most likely Baltics).
It’s not in the West’s interest to tell Ukraine to concede territory for peace.
Even if you put aside all humanitarian, economic, security etc. matters that directly pertain to Russian presence in the region, I can’t stress enough how bad of a moment in history it is for us to send a message that anyone can fuck with the West and get something out of it as long as they have some means of causing mayhem and act crazy enough to spook us with it.
No, it is not. And I am absolutely in favour of supporting Ukraine in retaking *all* its territory, including Crimea.
But if I may play devil’s advocate for a second: it’s not Ukraine’s prerogative either to expect the West to support its state budget and military indefinitely. The West cannot force Ukraine to give up on these territories, but it can wind down aid until Ukraine *has* to accept it.
This should be obvious, but some people seem to have a hard time understanding this. It’s unbelievably arrogant to think anyone but Ukrainians are going to decide when and how they will stop fighting.
For a start, the war is not won. And while I would wager on Ukraine, the tribunal of weapons has not spoken yet.
But it is foolish to think the West will not have an influence on the peace. It might not be moral but it will be the case. That doesn’t mean throwing the Ukrainians under the bus either. At this stage I don’t see much of a reason to push for territorial concessions though. Russia has doubled down and is preparing for a long one. So should we.
Well, I’m not the west and I tell them to not concede anything and to take back everything they lost!
If I were the west, I would’ve said the same thing.
Russia doesn’t deserve anything!
They already had the biggest country on they planet and they were not happy.
If we had a global police and justice system, after all the raping, maiming, torturing and killing so may people in Ukraine, wit would’ve bee Russia who had to concede some land to compensate a bit what all the awful things they’ve done!
At least taking some of their money and things and giving them to Ukraine is something like that.