Before anyone goes on about GDP, this is based on Modified Domestic Demand which strips out the multinational effect.
Is this the same people who told Leo the worst of the tech layoffs were over before Christmas? 🙄
Full employment, 5 billion euro surplus in the last budget, highest population in the history of the state….how the hell are we talking recession?
Tis but a scratch! Ireland was never likely to be in recession this year, simply too much activity in economy.
in fact we don’t have enough activity as should be the case because of too tight labour market and crap delivery of house building and various infrastructure etc. We’re being held back by ourselves rather than any international issues.
It’s very vague and misleading from RTE,
A factor in modified domestic demand is Government investment into the economy, but to allow for Strong Gov spending we need strong corporate tax reciepts, if we have a decline in tax receipts we have a decline in government investment into the economy and therefore a decline in MDD
“Modified (final) domestic demand, a proxy for the domestic economy, is the sum of personal and government consumption and investment, excluding investment in imported IP and aircraft for leasing. It also excludes changes in the value of stocks.”
Also see
” this modest decline in activity largely reflects a return to trend for investment following an exceptionally high level in the second quarter, which was largely driven by multinational investments in plant and machinery ”
Here he is saying a Sinn Fein government would be bad for foreign direct investment.
Not saying the man isn’t right about there not being a recession, but I tend to take his opinion with a massive grain of salt and they often favour the political establishment of Fine Gael/Fianna Fail.
I’ll be holding out for the likes of Dr Kevin Denny in the UCD school of economics or maybe Professor Eleanor Denny from TCD school of economics and a few more to give the all clear before celebrating.
2024 is prediction.
So do we feel better from that?
We’re seeing a very strange financial situation right now.
After the pandemic ended we were poised for a massive rebound. Economies ready to roar.
Goddam Putin and the fucking energy crisis caused by the Ukraine invasion really fucked things over. This has been driving up inflation.
At the same time, and this is also key, we’re seeing 2 things in tech. The outcome of some incredibly bad investments, massive financial losses when the markets expected gains, and also market driven lay offs, where too much hiring was done and now its almost a race to the bottom with firing people to see profits return for investors.
Just a few bad investments –
Meta betting heavily on the Metaverse – Nothing really to show for it
Microsoft putting billions into purchasing Activision – This is still being investigated and could end up a loss or waste of time
Obviously the Musk purchase of Twitter, billions invested, falling stock price and a contagious effect on the collapse of Tesla stock price too.
Just a taste, but all are causing issues in the global markets
IMO if the Ukraine conflict was over we’d be in a very different market right now.
All the neckbeards here wetting themselves for a housing crash will be very disappointed.
A lot of ppl have been saying “winter is coming” for 5 years. Recession will come at some point but not yet. What’s more concerning is that govt are creating the conditions for it again
Soft Landing™ incoming.
The same Goodbody who were blindsided by the 08 recession. There’s no point listening to financial firms for predictions of recessions. They have no motive to predicate them. It is always better to reassure people the good times will never end.
The 08 recession was denied right until it happened. Bertie Ahern was telling naysayers to kill themselves mere weeks before it all went to shite.
Sounds like a vote of confidence in the manager. Next thing you know he’s fired.
21 comments
Before anyone goes on about GDP, this is based on Modified Domestic Demand which strips out the multinational effect.
Is this the same people who told Leo the worst of the tech layoffs were over before Christmas? 🙄
Full employment, 5 billion euro surplus in the last budget, highest population in the history of the state….how the hell are we talking recession?
Tis but a scratch! Ireland was never likely to be in recession this year, simply too much activity in economy.
in fact we don’t have enough activity as should be the case because of too tight labour market and crap delivery of house building and various infrastructure etc. We’re being held back by ourselves rather than any international issues.
It’s very vague and misleading from RTE,
A factor in modified domestic demand is Government investment into the economy, but to allow for Strong Gov spending we need strong corporate tax reciepts, if we have a decline in tax receipts we have a decline in government investment into the economy and therefore a decline in MDD
“Modified (final) domestic demand, a proxy for the domestic economy, is the sum of personal and government consumption and investment, excluding investment in imported IP and aircraft for leasing. It also excludes changes in the value of stocks.”
Also see
” this modest decline in activity largely reflects a return to trend for investment following an exceptionally high level in the second quarter, which was largely driven by multinational investments in plant and machinery ”
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/bee36-minister-donohoe-notes-the-modest-easing-in-the-domestic-economy-during-the-third-quarter-in-line-with-expectations/#:~:text=Modified%20(final)%20domestic%20demand%2C,in%20the%20value%20of%20stocks.
Did someone say soft landing?
Back garden decking and hot tubs for all!
Ffs another year of this shit
But the there was meant to be an economic catastrophe and the house market was meant to collapse and we’d all get houses for handy money. Feck sake!
Even if we do avoid a recession we are likely to feel the spill over effects of a US recession. Big tech already doing mass layoffs with more to come.
This report was put together by Dermot O’Leary of Goodbody’s.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-30980010.html
Here he is advising against Rent Control legislation in 2020.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/sinn-fein-s-revolution-at-ballot-box-rocks-irish-establishment
Here he is saying a Sinn Fein government would be bad for foreign direct investment.
Not saying the man isn’t right about there not being a recession, but I tend to take his opinion with a massive grain of salt and they often favour the political establishment of Fine Gael/Fianna Fail.
I’ll be holding out for the likes of Dr Kevin Denny in the UCD school of economics or maybe Professor Eleanor Denny from TCD school of economics and a few more to give the all clear before celebrating.
2024 is prediction.
So do we feel better from that?
We’re seeing a very strange financial situation right now.
After the pandemic ended we were poised for a massive rebound. Economies ready to roar.
Goddam Putin and the fucking energy crisis caused by the Ukraine invasion really fucked things over. This has been driving up inflation.
At the same time, and this is also key, we’re seeing 2 things in tech. The outcome of some incredibly bad investments, massive financial losses when the markets expected gains, and also market driven lay offs, where too much hiring was done and now its almost a race to the bottom with firing people to see profits return for investors.
Just a few bad investments –
Meta betting heavily on the Metaverse – Nothing really to show for it
Oracle buying Slack – This hasn’t paid off, massive losses expected
Microsoft putting billions into purchasing Activision – This is still being investigated and could end up a loss or waste of time
Obviously the Musk purchase of Twitter, billions invested, falling stock price and a contagious effect on the collapse of Tesla stock price too.
Just a taste, but all are causing issues in the global markets
IMO if the Ukraine conflict was over we’d be in a very different market right now.
All the neckbeards here wetting themselves for a housing crash will be very disappointed.
A lot of ppl have been saying “winter is coming” for 5 years. Recession will come at some point but not yet. What’s more concerning is that govt are creating the conditions for it again
Soft Landing™ incoming.
The same Goodbody who were blindsided by the 08 recession. There’s no point listening to financial firms for predictions of recessions. They have no motive to predicate them. It is always better to reassure people the good times will never end.
The 08 recession was denied right until it happened. Bertie Ahern was telling naysayers to kill themselves mere weeks before it all went to shite.
Sounds like a vote of confidence in the manager. Next thing you know he’s fired.
Rising interest rates.. cough cough