The Conservatives would be relegated to Westminster’s third party behind the Scottish National Party in a snap election, new polling for the Telegraph has found.
The exclusive, large-scale MRP poll of 28,000 people found that if there were an imminent general election the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP. Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, would be the Leader of the Opposition.
The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and experts Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote and the Tories down to 23 per cent.
MRP polling means results in individual seats can be calculated. The polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 seats available.
The SNP is the next largest party in the Commons, with 50 MPs, while the Conservatives would be in third place with just 45, down from 365 at the 2019 election.
The Liberal Democrats would more than double their number of MPs from 11 to 23. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are unchanged at four MPs and one respectively.
Reform UK, seen as a protest party to the Right of the Tories, is forecast to win six per cent of the votes but is left without a single MP, suggesting its support comes from the Conservatives.
The polling was carried out from Jan 27 to Feb 5, before Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, reshuffled his ministerial team and created more government departments.
On a seat-by-seat estimate, 15 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including Mr Sunak, James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary, and Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary. Ex-prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and Kwasi Kwarteng, the former chancellor, would also be ejected from the Commons.
Chris Holbrook, the chief executive of Find Out Now, said the forecasts made “shocking reading for Conservatives”, adding: “Mending perceptions of corruption may be their best hope.”
Martin Baxter, the chief executive of Electoral Calculus, added: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.
“They have lost support across the country, particularly in traditionally strong Conservative areas, which bodes very badly for the next general election. That election could be a near-wipeout and worse than 1997, with the Conservatives not even being the main opposition party.”
Senior Conservatives attempted to put a brave face on the figures on Wednesday night, pointing out that if the survey questions are about an election next year, voters are less certain about Labour.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and Cabinet minister, said: “It is still quite a soft lead for Labour. It is not over yet by a long way. The Government can influence the vote by sorting out the small boats issue, dealing with the NHS crisis and cutting taxes to get growth going.”
They know this so they’d rather hold the country hostage.
We need a GE as soon as possible! I dread to think what damage they will do within the next year, let alone two.
God DAMN, the Tories being the third party would be fantastic.
Ignored when an ‘opposition’ view is needed. Lol.
Well they’re not going to have a snap election NOW, are they? Next time, media, keep your traps shut and we might have a chance at kicking this government out…
I would do almost anything to see the first PMQs be Labour and SNP opposite each other just laughing non stop at the Tories.
No it wouldn’t. This is The Telegraph scaremongering so Tories will come back to them from not voting.
Margaret Thatcher got us into the Falklands war to win an election… I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar happened.
Before reading the article I was hoping that the second party was going to be the Monster Raving Loony Party. Not sure the SNP fits that bill
Incredibly unlikely nationwide, but the fact that polls are throwing up outlier results like this is quite illustrative of the dire straits the Tories find themselves in.
If the Tories ended up with 45 seats, that would be 45 more than they deserve after their pathological lying, unprecedented corruption and the utter contempt they have shown for the general public.
CALL A GENERAL ELECTION. I remember the wipeout they encountered in 1997. That was a trial run for what is to come. How amazing it will be to have the Scots as opposition.
We live in hope. As it goes, I’m hoping the chaos unleashed by a decade plus of Tory corruption, incompetence and mismanagement peaks just at the right time for complete annihilation. I will dance in the street to see that crime syndicate destroyed for good.
As much as I would love to see this, and to think how progressive the country can become if the Tories had no platform.
I think there’s always going to be more closet Tories than people realise and they will have a ‘healthy’ number in the opposition.
Maybe it’s the pessimist in me for not being able to believe it. Or maybe it’s because I’m British.
Don’t threaten me with a good time.
(Until it happens I am not believing it)
They should be the third party … because we should have some proportionally represented system
Can’t come fucking soon enough. Fuck them right off into oblivion, along with their cronies, backers, financiers, shills, spivs and downright crooked cunts. Bunch of immoral wankers.
Tories will have to at some point, and they’ve got NOTHING
I don’t even want them as a third party, I’d like to see the Tory party obliterated from the political spectrum with little to no hope of any kind of return. Maybe, just maybe, the UK can begin to heal after their carnage.
The problem is, considering the Tories have crossed the centre line to the left recently (last three years)…..where is there exactly for this country to go?
23% of the vote, yet a seat less than the tartans with 4%.
Ahh maybe they’d finally realise that FPTP is an utter joke. Wishful thinking most likely…
in reality, a lot of natural Tories wouldn’t want the wipeout so would return to voting Tory, in some areas.
Hmm. Don’t believe you. Maybe we should have a snap election and find out
Torygraph putting the frighteners into their flock.
Vote FFS, for the candidate **most likely to defeat the Tory** in your seat.
We can dream, but the Tories know this, so they’re in full tilt grift mode for the limited time they have left to maximise their nest eggs and secure their slide into “consultancy” jobs with those they helped.
GE 2024 is going to be the night of long knives for the Tory filth. I can’t wait.
My question is why are these morons even getting votes? For destroying NHS? For brexit which fucked up UK ? Or for having people who “forgot to pay tax”? Or is it for having an old boys network which stole billions from tax payer money for PPT gear during Covid ?
This is the Tories trying to get everyone else to be more complacent
I think I would die laughing if the Tories got put back into third place 🤣
It is what it is. If they are 3rd, that is what they are.
Though not necessarily what the people want. We will only truly have what we want if we had a proportional electoral system.
Labour will not give us this.
Don’t believe it. Don’t be complacent. Make sure you vote and make sure everyone you know understands what the Tories have done and will do. It’s 2 years until the next election, keep this up until then.
At this point I don’t know how it can be considered legitimate for them to cling to power and ram through new laws of their choosing
# DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT!
Is this really going to improve in the next couple of years. Their reputation is dashed
I honestly don’t know why you guys get excited about this. You must know the script by now. All that needs to happen is for the Tory press to ramp up the rhetoric closer to the election and they’ll get in. Look at all this so-called ‘woke’ stuff. They’ll have the plebs believing that Starmer wants to give their kids puberty blockers in their school dinners, that nurses/firemen/teachers are selfish cunts, and that the EU is punishing us for leaving them and that’s why the economy is tanking. Honestly, I’d love to see the Tories wiped out – but while their pals are controlling the media and we have a malleable populace then I can’t see it happening. I hope I’m wrong.
35 comments
The Conservatives would be relegated to Westminster’s third party behind the Scottish National Party in a snap election, new polling for the Telegraph has found.
The exclusive, large-scale MRP poll of 28,000 people found that if there were an imminent general election the Tories would be left with fewer seats than the SNP. Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, would be the Leader of the Opposition.
The figures, from pollsters Find Out Now and experts Electoral Calculus, report Labour winning 49 per cent of the vote and the Tories down to 23 per cent.
MRP polling means results in individual seats can be calculated. The polling forecast that Labour would gain 306 seats, taking its total number of MPs to a record 509 out of 650 seats available.
The SNP is the next largest party in the Commons, with 50 MPs, while the Conservatives would be in third place with just 45, down from 365 at the 2019 election.
The Liberal Democrats would more than double their number of MPs from 11 to 23. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are unchanged at four MPs and one respectively.
Reform UK, seen as a protest party to the Right of the Tories, is forecast to win six per cent of the votes but is left without a single MP, suggesting its support comes from the Conservatives.
The polling was carried out from Jan 27 to Feb 5, before Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, reshuffled his ministerial team and created more government departments.
On a seat-by-seat estimate, 15 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including Mr Sunak, James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary, and Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary. Ex-prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and Kwasi Kwarteng, the former chancellor, would also be ejected from the Commons.
Chris Holbrook, the chief executive of Find Out Now, said the forecasts made “shocking reading for Conservatives”, adding: “Mending perceptions of corruption may be their best hope.”
Martin Baxter, the chief executive of Electoral Calculus, added: “The Conservatives have been far behind in the polls for the last four months, with little sign of improvement.
“They have lost support across the country, particularly in traditionally strong Conservative areas, which bodes very badly for the next general election. That election could be a near-wipeout and worse than 1997, with the Conservatives not even being the main opposition party.”
Senior Conservatives attempted to put a brave face on the figures on Wednesday night, pointing out that if the survey questions are about an election next year, voters are less certain about Labour.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and Cabinet minister, said: “It is still quite a soft lead for Labour. It is not over yet by a long way. The Government can influence the vote by sorting out the small boats issue, dealing with the NHS crisis and cutting taxes to get growth going.”
They know this so they’d rather hold the country hostage.
We need a GE as soon as possible! I dread to think what damage they will do within the next year, let alone two.
God DAMN, the Tories being the third party would be fantastic.
Ignored when an ‘opposition’ view is needed. Lol.
Well they’re not going to have a snap election NOW, are they? Next time, media, keep your traps shut and we might have a chance at kicking this government out…
I would do almost anything to see the first PMQs be Labour and SNP opposite each other just laughing non stop at the Tories.
No it wouldn’t. This is The Telegraph scaremongering so Tories will come back to them from not voting.
Margaret Thatcher got us into the Falklands war to win an election… I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar happened.
Before reading the article I was hoping that the second party was going to be the Monster Raving Loony Party. Not sure the SNP fits that bill
Incredibly unlikely nationwide, but the fact that polls are throwing up outlier results like this is quite illustrative of the dire straits the Tories find themselves in.
If the Tories ended up with 45 seats, that would be 45 more than they deserve after their pathological lying, unprecedented corruption and the utter contempt they have shown for the general public.
CALL A GENERAL ELECTION. I remember the wipeout they encountered in 1997. That was a trial run for what is to come. How amazing it will be to have the Scots as opposition.
We live in hope. As it goes, I’m hoping the chaos unleashed by a decade plus of Tory corruption, incompetence and mismanagement peaks just at the right time for complete annihilation. I will dance in the street to see that crime syndicate destroyed for good.
As much as I would love to see this, and to think how progressive the country can become if the Tories had no platform.
I think there’s always going to be more closet Tories than people realise and they will have a ‘healthy’ number in the opposition.
Maybe it’s the pessimist in me for not being able to believe it. Or maybe it’s because I’m British.
Don’t threaten me with a good time.
(Until it happens I am not believing it)
They should be the third party … because we should have some proportionally represented system
Can’t come fucking soon enough. Fuck them right off into oblivion, along with their cronies, backers, financiers, shills, spivs and downright crooked cunts. Bunch of immoral wankers.
Tories will have to at some point, and they’ve got NOTHING
I don’t even want them as a third party, I’d like to see the Tory party obliterated from the political spectrum with little to no hope of any kind of return. Maybe, just maybe, the UK can begin to heal after their carnage.
The problem is, considering the Tories have crossed the centre line to the left recently (last three years)…..where is there exactly for this country to go?
23% of the vote, yet a seat less than the tartans with 4%.
Ahh maybe they’d finally realise that FPTP is an utter joke. Wishful thinking most likely…
in reality, a lot of natural Tories wouldn’t want the wipeout so would return to voting Tory, in some areas.
Hmm. Don’t believe you. Maybe we should have a snap election and find out
Torygraph putting the frighteners into their flock.
Vote FFS, for the candidate **most likely to defeat the Tory** in your seat.
We can dream, but the Tories know this, so they’re in full tilt grift mode for the limited time they have left to maximise their nest eggs and secure their slide into “consultancy” jobs with those they helped.
GE 2024 is going to be the night of long knives for the Tory filth. I can’t wait.
My question is why are these morons even getting votes? For destroying NHS? For brexit which fucked up UK ? Or for having people who “forgot to pay tax”? Or is it for having an old boys network which stole billions from tax payer money for PPT gear during Covid ?
This is the Tories trying to get everyone else to be more complacent
I think I would die laughing if the Tories got put back into third place 🤣
It is what it is. If they are 3rd, that is what they are.
Though not necessarily what the people want. We will only truly have what we want if we had a proportional electoral system.
Labour will not give us this.
Don’t believe it. Don’t be complacent. Make sure you vote and make sure everyone you know understands what the Tories have done and will do. It’s 2 years until the next election, keep this up until then.
At this point I don’t know how it can be considered legitimate for them to cling to power and ram through new laws of their choosing
# DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT! DO IT!
Is this really going to improve in the next couple of years. Their reputation is dashed
I honestly don’t know why you guys get excited about this. You must know the script by now. All that needs to happen is for the Tory press to ramp up the rhetoric closer to the election and they’ll get in. Look at all this so-called ‘woke’ stuff. They’ll have the plebs believing that Starmer wants to give their kids puberty blockers in their school dinners, that nurses/firemen/teachers are selfish cunts, and that the EU is punishing us for leaving them and that’s why the economy is tanking. Honestly, I’d love to see the Tories wiped out – but while their pals are controlling the media and we have a malleable populace then I can’t see it happening. I hope I’m wrong.