Opinion is shifting but the public are running ahead of the politicians
At the height of Britain’s Brexit debate, passions ran so high that some talked of a “new English civil war”. That comparison still intrigues me for one specific reason: the side that won the civil war ultimately lost. King Charles I was executed in 1649. Eleven years later, the English decided they had made a mistake and restored the monarchy.
Could a similar reversal happen with Brexit? I think so.
Seven years after the 2016 referendum, and three years after Brexit actually happened, opinion has shifted markedly. As the academic Matthew Goodwin wrote recently, some 60 per cent of Britons now think Brexit was the wrong decision and would vote to rejoin the EU at a second referendum. An average of recent polls shows 58 per cent of voters not only regretting Brexit, but actively favouring Rejoin.
It is easy to understand why. Brexit was sold as a way of controlling immigration and improving the NHS. But the NHS is now in far worse shape than it was in 2016. Immigration into the UK remains very high, with EU immigrants largely replaced by people from outside the bloc. And the IMF predicts that Britain will have the worst performing economy in the developed world this year.
Demographics and economics suggest that the Rejoin sentiment will strengthen over time. Young voters are the most pro-EU of the lot, with 79 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds wanting to rejoin. And, sadly, the damage done to the UK economy by Brexit is likely to become increasingly evident.
So far these changes have not filtered through into politics. Daniel Hannan, a prominent Leave campaigner, claimed recently that there was a “plot to overturn Brexit”. If only!
In reality, with roughly two years before an election, the opposition Labour party says that reversing Brexit is out of the question — and talks only of “fixes” to the current deal. Even diehard Remainers often moan that it will take a generation before Britain can consider rejoining the EU.
But this is too fatalistic and too accepting of the mounting damage Brexit is doing. It also ignores the speed with which events and opinion are moving.
The truth is that the marginal “fixes” to Brexit favoured by Labour may not be achievable and would not compensate for exclusion from the EU’s internal market. The public seem to have realised this. Eventually politicians will have to respond — and the idea of rejoining the EU will become mainstream. A large Labour majority at the next election would make that shift easier.
Any campaign to rejoin would face two big further objections. The first and most important is the claim that the EU would not want Britain back. The second is the argument that the British will turn against Rejoin, when they realise what it involves.
European opposition to a British return certainly exists, but can be overstated. Michel Barnier, who led the EU’s Brexit negotiating team, says the door is open for Britain to rejoin the EU “any time”. Guy Verhofstadt, who was head of the European parliament’s Brexit committee, tweeted last week: “I have a dream. Ukraine and Britain joining the EU in the next five years.”
When I rang Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Green group in the European parliament, and asked him about Britain rejoining, he replied: “That would be my dream scenario.” Lamberts thinks the five main political groupings in the parliament would all favour British re-entry.
Some EU member states, in particular France, would probably take a different view. The French argue that the British were a pain inside the EU and that the bloc has worked better since Brexit. But French opposition to British membership was worn down in the 1970s and could be again.
Most EU insiders, however, warn that, this time, Britain would not be offered any special deals. There would be no budget rebate; no opt out from the social chapter. Britain would have to accept the free movement of people and, quite probably, the euro.
Some pundits think that once these realities sink in, the British would lose their initial enthusiasm for rejoining the EU. But that is not necessarily the case.
The idea that leaving the EU will dramatically reduce immigration has been disproved. Embracing European social standards may horrify the Tory right, but would probably be popular among most of the electorate.
Even the euro might not be a deal-breaker. I opposed Britain joining the single currency 20 years ago because it was an untried experiment. But the euro is now an established international currency, while the pound looks chronically weak. The young voters who favour Rejoin care more about issues such as the environment than abstract notions of sovereignty.
How could it be done? I would favour a two-referendum process. The first vote could be held in 2026, a decade after the Leave vote of 2016. It would simply give the UK government permission to open negotiations with the EU. A strong vote of approval — say, 60 per cent — might allay some EU scepticism about whether Britain is too divided to deal with. A second referendum would be held on the terms of the Rejoin deal.
It took 11 years for Britain to restore the monarchy. Why not try to beat that by a year — and reverse Brexit inside a decade?
>European opposition to a British return certainly exists, but can be overstated. Michel Barnier, who led the EU’s Brexit negotiating team, says the door is open for Britain to rejoin the EU “any time”. Guy Verhofstadt, who was head of the European parliament’s Brexit committee, tweeted last week: “I have a dream. Ukraine and Britain joining the EU in the next five years.”
>
>When I rang Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Green group in the European parliament, and asked him about Britain rejoining, he replied: “That would be my dream scenario.” Lamberts thinks the five main political groupings in the parliament would all favour British re-entry.
The decision to allow Britain rejoin rests not with Barnier, Verhofstadt nor Lamberts. Britain needs friends in EU capitals and they’ll have a job finding them.
As a trading bloc is a great idea…
But not a European version of the Soviet Union.
I refuse to say never, but 10 or 11 years is far, far too soon.
However, the issue of it requiring time adds another challenge: new countries joining the EU means more countries that the UK would have to win over.
I would like to live to see the UK rejoin the EU but actuarial tables suggest I will not.
“How could it be done? I would favour a two-referendum process. The first vote could be held in 2026, a decade after the Leave vote of 2016.”
I thought that these sort of referenda were supposed to be “once in a generation”. Well that’s what we Scot’s get told every 5 minutes.
Scottish Independence referendum was in 2014. So we should be able to hold another one next year then?
Given the way our economy is going, we won’t meet the criteria to re-join for a decade
[deleted]
We had our chance when it wasn’t a done deal.
Instead of sensibly allowing a gracious U-turn and navigating the UK back to safe waters, Labour forced May to ‘get it done’ or suffer crushing humiliation – those were her only options.
Simple political point scoring by a childish Labour opposition caused carnage.
Could have so easily been avoided.
Brexit will never be reversed…the eu will die first. Maybe in a decade or two we’ll have a less corrupt, more accountable, less dictatorial version of the eu but this one needs brought down before that can happen because they’d never let an alternative European collaboration steal their wealth.
And take the Schengen, the € and you don’t meet the requirements.
I’d rather Scotland joins and leaves the UK. We’ve been shown the tories don’t give a fuck about us or the equal union.
All 705 MEPs could publicly state tomorrow that they want the UK to re-enter the EU, and it would still not happen, because a) the decision rests with the Heads of State of Member States and b) there’s zero appetite or trust to deal with the implications of UK admittance.
I am all for the UK being a member again, it cannot come soon enough, but working in Brussels, I can tell you that Commission officials are tired with the UK, Commission leadership is tired with the UK, even lobbyists are tired with the UK!
The public aren’t ahead of the politicians though, this is a classic twisting of polls because you are engaged in wishful thinking.
Would need to be a will for it from a party that’s anywhere near close to power and neither Conservatives or Labour want anything to do with the idea. And that’s before you think about every EU member agreeing and what sort of concessions the UK may have to make. Especially given the strong position the UK had before with vetos and whatever else.
At least a decade away, probably more.
We can’t undo the damage that’s already done the time to back out passed when we formally left the EU the damage is done so we might as well just hold on for dear life and hope for the best
20 years wasted for most people.
However the pockets of Brexit backers will have been nicely filled – so it will be a success.
The mistake was leaving the customs Union, which people did not vote for; before the referendum it was stated that the UK would not leave it…
It’s just embarrassing, like I would not blame them if they told us to sod off
Leave it alone already. Let everyone die in PIECE AND QUIET.
Why would Britain be ahead of Ukraine or Turkey to join the EU?
These duplicitous clown car politicians couldnt drive straight forward into Brexit properly, how can you expect them to **reverse**.
We’ll have to rejoin at some point and we definitely won’t have any of the perks we had before. Will definitely have to take the euro for example.
Which will all be hilarious
So basically reverse a democratic decision? you people really are scummy & when it comes down to it couldn’t care less about democracy. I didn’t vote for brexit but I have to respect the decision. 64
But the other countries would adress you as naughty-naughty, and they would force you to finish every statement with cheerio.
People voted for Brexit, now they have to just bend over and take it.
24 comments
Opinion is shifting but the public are running ahead of the politicians
At the height of Britain’s Brexit debate, passions ran so high that some talked of a “new English civil war”. That comparison still intrigues me for one specific reason: the side that won the civil war ultimately lost. King Charles I was executed in 1649. Eleven years later, the English decided they had made a mistake and restored the monarchy.
Could a similar reversal happen with Brexit? I think so.
Seven years after the 2016 referendum, and three years after Brexit actually happened, opinion has shifted markedly. As the academic Matthew Goodwin wrote recently, some 60 per cent of Britons now think Brexit was the wrong decision and would vote to rejoin the EU at a second referendum. An average of recent polls shows 58 per cent of voters not only regretting Brexit, but actively favouring Rejoin.
It is easy to understand why. Brexit was sold as a way of controlling immigration and improving the NHS. But the NHS is now in far worse shape than it was in 2016. Immigration into the UK remains very high, with EU immigrants largely replaced by people from outside the bloc. And the IMF predicts that Britain will have the worst performing economy in the developed world this year.
Demographics and economics suggest that the Rejoin sentiment will strengthen over time. Young voters are the most pro-EU of the lot, with 79 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds wanting to rejoin. And, sadly, the damage done to the UK economy by Brexit is likely to become increasingly evident.
So far these changes have not filtered through into politics. Daniel Hannan, a prominent Leave campaigner, claimed recently that there was a “plot to overturn Brexit”. If only!
In reality, with roughly two years before an election, the opposition Labour party says that reversing Brexit is out of the question — and talks only of “fixes” to the current deal. Even diehard Remainers often moan that it will take a generation before Britain can consider rejoining the EU.
But this is too fatalistic and too accepting of the mounting damage Brexit is doing. It also ignores the speed with which events and opinion are moving.
The truth is that the marginal “fixes” to Brexit favoured by Labour may not be achievable and would not compensate for exclusion from the EU’s internal market. The public seem to have realised this. Eventually politicians will have to respond — and the idea of rejoining the EU will become mainstream. A large Labour majority at the next election would make that shift easier.
Any campaign to rejoin would face two big further objections. The first and most important is the claim that the EU would not want Britain back. The second is the argument that the British will turn against Rejoin, when they realise what it involves.
European opposition to a British return certainly exists, but can be overstated. Michel Barnier, who led the EU’s Brexit negotiating team, says the door is open for Britain to rejoin the EU “any time”. Guy Verhofstadt, who was head of the European parliament’s Brexit committee, tweeted last week: “I have a dream. Ukraine and Britain joining the EU in the next five years.”
When I rang Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Green group in the European parliament, and asked him about Britain rejoining, he replied: “That would be my dream scenario.” Lamberts thinks the five main political groupings in the parliament would all favour British re-entry.
Some EU member states, in particular France, would probably take a different view. The French argue that the British were a pain inside the EU and that the bloc has worked better since Brexit. But French opposition to British membership was worn down in the 1970s and could be again.
Most EU insiders, however, warn that, this time, Britain would not be offered any special deals. There would be no budget rebate; no opt out from the social chapter. Britain would have to accept the free movement of people and, quite probably, the euro.
Some pundits think that once these realities sink in, the British would lose their initial enthusiasm for rejoining the EU. But that is not necessarily the case.
The idea that leaving the EU will dramatically reduce immigration has been disproved. Embracing European social standards may horrify the Tory right, but would probably be popular among most of the electorate.
Even the euro might not be a deal-breaker. I opposed Britain joining the single currency 20 years ago because it was an untried experiment. But the euro is now an established international currency, while the pound looks chronically weak. The young voters who favour Rejoin care more about issues such as the environment than abstract notions of sovereignty.
How could it be done? I would favour a two-referendum process. The first vote could be held in 2026, a decade after the Leave vote of 2016. It would simply give the UK government permission to open negotiations with the EU. A strong vote of approval — say, 60 per cent — might allay some EU scepticism about whether Britain is too divided to deal with. A second referendum would be held on the terms of the Rejoin deal.
It took 11 years for Britain to restore the monarchy. Why not try to beat that by a year — and reverse Brexit inside a decade?
>European opposition to a British return certainly exists, but can be overstated. Michel Barnier, who led the EU’s Brexit negotiating team, says the door is open for Britain to rejoin the EU “any time”. Guy Verhofstadt, who was head of the European parliament’s Brexit committee, tweeted last week: “I have a dream. Ukraine and Britain joining the EU in the next five years.”
>
>When I rang Philippe Lamberts, co-chair of the Green group in the European parliament, and asked him about Britain rejoining, he replied: “That would be my dream scenario.” Lamberts thinks the five main political groupings in the parliament would all favour British re-entry.
The decision to allow Britain rejoin rests not with Barnier, Verhofstadt nor Lamberts. Britain needs friends in EU capitals and they’ll have a job finding them.
As a trading bloc is a great idea…
But not a European version of the Soviet Union.
I refuse to say never, but 10 or 11 years is far, far too soon.
However, the issue of it requiring time adds another challenge: new countries joining the EU means more countries that the UK would have to win over.
I would like to live to see the UK rejoin the EU but actuarial tables suggest I will not.
“How could it be done? I would favour a two-referendum process. The first vote could be held in 2026, a decade after the Leave vote of 2016.”
I thought that these sort of referenda were supposed to be “once in a generation”. Well that’s what we Scot’s get told every 5 minutes.
Scottish Independence referendum was in 2014. So we should be able to hold another one next year then?
Given the way our economy is going, we won’t meet the criteria to re-join for a decade
[deleted]
We had our chance when it wasn’t a done deal.
Instead of sensibly allowing a gracious U-turn and navigating the UK back to safe waters, Labour forced May to ‘get it done’ or suffer crushing humiliation – those were her only options.
Simple political point scoring by a childish Labour opposition caused carnage.
Could have so easily been avoided.
Brexit will never be reversed…the eu will die first. Maybe in a decade or two we’ll have a less corrupt, more accountable, less dictatorial version of the eu but this one needs brought down before that can happen because they’d never let an alternative European collaboration steal their wealth.
And take the Schengen, the € and you don’t meet the requirements.
I’d rather Scotland joins and leaves the UK. We’ve been shown the tories don’t give a fuck about us or the equal union.
All 705 MEPs could publicly state tomorrow that they want the UK to re-enter the EU, and it would still not happen, because a) the decision rests with the Heads of State of Member States and b) there’s zero appetite or trust to deal with the implications of UK admittance.
I am all for the UK being a member again, it cannot come soon enough, but working in Brussels, I can tell you that Commission officials are tired with the UK, Commission leadership is tired with the UK, even lobbyists are tired with the UK!
The public aren’t ahead of the politicians though, this is a classic twisting of polls because you are engaged in wishful thinking.
Would need to be a will for it from a party that’s anywhere near close to power and neither Conservatives or Labour want anything to do with the idea. And that’s before you think about every EU member agreeing and what sort of concessions the UK may have to make. Especially given the strong position the UK had before with vetos and whatever else.
At least a decade away, probably more.
We can’t undo the damage that’s already done the time to back out passed when we formally left the EU the damage is done so we might as well just hold on for dear life and hope for the best
20 years wasted for most people.
However the pockets of Brexit backers will have been nicely filled – so it will be a success.
The mistake was leaving the customs Union, which people did not vote for; before the referendum it was stated that the UK would not leave it…
It’s just embarrassing, like I would not blame them if they told us to sod off
Leave it alone already. Let everyone die in PIECE AND QUIET.
Why would Britain be ahead of Ukraine or Turkey to join the EU?
These duplicitous clown car politicians couldnt drive straight forward into Brexit properly, how can you expect them to **reverse**.
We’ll have to rejoin at some point and we definitely won’t have any of the perks we had before. Will definitely have to take the euro for example.
Which will all be hilarious
So basically reverse a democratic decision? you people really are scummy & when it comes down to it couldn’t care less about democracy. I didn’t vote for brexit but I have to respect the decision. 64
But the other countries would adress you as naughty-naughty, and they would force you to finish every statement with cheerio.
People voted for Brexit, now they have to just bend over and take it.