Starmer’s already said Labour would support Sunak, so everyone’s probably done the numbers and worked out that a bill could pass.
However, if the new agreement isn’t suitable for the ERG, then it won’t be suitable for the DUP.
The bigger test for Sunak is how he handles the high probability that the DUP will continue to be intransigent and abstain from forming an executive.
>In the first pronouncement by Johnson on Brexit
Self-promoting dipshit continues with self-promotion
And so this little game continues. Note that the only distinction between the players is their role. When they’re in government, they need something to show for all the fuss they made or at least mitigate the damage done. So they are more pragmatic in dealing with the EU, at least when negotiating. When they’re not in government, they attack and denounce whatever agreement or policy is on the table as an affront to sovereignty or a betrayal of Brexit, because that is how they get media attention and political power. It doesn’t matter in the slightest what the agreement contains. It can never be good enough, because if it is they lose their political raison-d’être. This is a closed system too: if these people are in government and are ousted, they join the ranks of those sniping at the sidelines. If they bring down a government or force it to back down, they replace it or join it and their erstwhile colleagues start aiming for them and their policies too.
Extrapolating what happened to the last few governments / agreements, one of these things will happen:
1) the UK government caves, temporarily appeasing the extremists in its own party and prompting the EU towards further sanctions.
2) the UK government resists and is brought down. The next one then repudiates the agreement.
3) the UK government resists for now but loses even more control over its own party. Sooner or later it betrays the agreement it has made to either buy itself time or in an attempt to boost electoral or political support.
From the EU’s perspective, of course, it doesn’t really matter whether a UK government breaks its agreements because it is politically unwilling or incapable of upholding its obligations. The only value these deals have at this point is that they bind a future UK government that does care about its country’s reputation and material interests.
Since the current ruling party won’t call an election that they will almost certainly lose (the one thing all these factions agree on is that they need to cling on to power for as long as they can), the UK is doomed to replay this farce over and over for just about every interaction with the EU or its neighbours.
Only a major electoral defeat once their term is up will enable a potential normalization of relations between the UK and its neighbours, though even if that leads to a deepening of the trade agreement (and that is a big if), this is unlikely to substantially repair the damage done in the meantime.
So, any chance of another vote of no confidence over this?
Sunak needs to grow a pair and actually lead. Too much hiding, u turns to appease everyone and no conviction. Was his only desire to be pm to be the first Asian and nothing else?
Let them vote against it and then withdraw the whip. See if they can hold onto their safe seats without the blue rosette.
It’s so annoying that the Tories essentially drove us to Brexit and now half of them seem bent on not letting the other half actually get it done. Hopefully the ERG tosspots get wiped out at the next election, they’ve been an absolute blight on democracy for over half a decade.
Recent history says Sunak will fold. He’s shown no appetite to take on the nutters in his own party and has run from each potential rebellion.
Rishi must go ahead and make the necessary changes.
Every one benefits.
Most people only see it later
Why is it that anytime the Tories threaten to rebel, it is on something Labour will support?
It’s just a façade to go like ‘look, we opposed. The opposition are to blame this time’. Populist rhetoric meant to do nothing. Any idea why Rishi doesn’t do anything? I could think of one: he instigates these ‘rebellions’ to keep the Red Wallers relevant.
It might not matter if the rest of the Commons votes with the government.
10 comments
Starmer’s already said Labour would support Sunak, so everyone’s probably done the numbers and worked out that a bill could pass.
However, if the new agreement isn’t suitable for the ERG, then it won’t be suitable for the DUP.
The bigger test for Sunak is how he handles the high probability that the DUP will continue to be intransigent and abstain from forming an executive.
>In the first pronouncement by Johnson on Brexit
Self-promoting dipshit continues with self-promotion
And so this little game continues. Note that the only distinction between the players is their role. When they’re in government, they need something to show for all the fuss they made or at least mitigate the damage done. So they are more pragmatic in dealing with the EU, at least when negotiating. When they’re not in government, they attack and denounce whatever agreement or policy is on the table as an affront to sovereignty or a betrayal of Brexit, because that is how they get media attention and political power. It doesn’t matter in the slightest what the agreement contains. It can never be good enough, because if it is they lose their political raison-d’être. This is a closed system too: if these people are in government and are ousted, they join the ranks of those sniping at the sidelines. If they bring down a government or force it to back down, they replace it or join it and their erstwhile colleagues start aiming for them and their policies too.
Extrapolating what happened to the last few governments / agreements, one of these things will happen:
1) the UK government caves, temporarily appeasing the extremists in its own party and prompting the EU towards further sanctions.
2) the UK government resists and is brought down. The next one then repudiates the agreement.
3) the UK government resists for now but loses even more control over its own party. Sooner or later it betrays the agreement it has made to either buy itself time or in an attempt to boost electoral or political support.
From the EU’s perspective, of course, it doesn’t really matter whether a UK government breaks its agreements because it is politically unwilling or incapable of upholding its obligations. The only value these deals have at this point is that they bind a future UK government that does care about its country’s reputation and material interests.
Since the current ruling party won’t call an election that they will almost certainly lose (the one thing all these factions agree on is that they need to cling on to power for as long as they can), the UK is doomed to replay this farce over and over for just about every interaction with the EU or its neighbours.
Only a major electoral defeat once their term is up will enable a potential normalization of relations between the UK and its neighbours, though even if that leads to a deepening of the trade agreement (and that is a big if), this is unlikely to substantially repair the damage done in the meantime.
So, any chance of another vote of no confidence over this?
Sunak needs to grow a pair and actually lead. Too much hiding, u turns to appease everyone and no conviction. Was his only desire to be pm to be the first Asian and nothing else?
Let them vote against it and then withdraw the whip. See if they can hold onto their safe seats without the blue rosette.
It’s so annoying that the Tories essentially drove us to Brexit and now half of them seem bent on not letting the other half actually get it done. Hopefully the ERG tosspots get wiped out at the next election, they’ve been an absolute blight on democracy for over half a decade.
Recent history says Sunak will fold. He’s shown no appetite to take on the nutters in his own party and has run from each potential rebellion.
Rishi must go ahead and make the necessary changes.
Every one benefits.
Most people only see it later
Why is it that anytime the Tories threaten to rebel, it is on something Labour will support?
It’s just a façade to go like ‘look, we opposed. The opposition are to blame this time’. Populist rhetoric meant to do nothing. Any idea why Rishi doesn’t do anything? I could think of one: he instigates these ‘rebellions’ to keep the Red Wallers relevant.
It might not matter if the rest of the Commons votes with the government.
Well beyond time to call out the ERG twats.