>Putin imagined that after the invasion of Ukraine, an ultimatum would be issued to the West to accept Russia’s occupation of the country and that a no-fly zone would be declared over Poland and the Baltic states.
After that, Russia’s “nuclear triad” of land, air and submarine “would be activated”, leading to the “withdrawal of several countries from NATO” and possibly the European Union, the source said. It added that many Western countries would be so terrified that they would even accept rocket attacks on Poland or the Baltic countries.
All of this would cause a “fundamental collapse of the West within the time allotted (by Putin) after the ultimatum was issued”. Putin expected Western countries to issue “separate appeals to Russia that they are not conducting aggressive actions against Russia and are not part of the possible war”.
Clinically insane
This sounds a bit far-fetched, but let’s not forget that Putin really played on Trump getting elected and Trump repeatedly said that he’d like the US to withdraw from NATO.
Say what you want about Germany and France, but those two have been dragged – kicking and screaming – to admit that Russia has been a threat to this area for a long time. There’s a reason why so many Eastern Europeans have been extremely doubtful about Germany’s and France’s willingness to come to our aid. The belief was that to Germany, Russia is too scary to decisively act; to France, Russia is too far to be a threat and France doesn’t see the security concerns of this area as their issue to be concerned over. That’s the reason why so many countries here looked and continue to look to the US.
If Trump had been able to weaken NATO, that would’ve been a huge blow to our security. I’m not sure if the no-fly zone would’ve been declared, but I do think that in case Putin would’ve done something against us, then the core EU members would’ve been perhaps somewhat slow to respond.
I think many 2004 and onwards EU members feel that the older EU members don’t see as truly as EU members and therefore our positions may be more precarious – people willing to throw us over as long as their countries are speared.
When it comes to NATO, Germany has enjoyed the security umbrella of both NATO and the US military bases, which has enabled Germany to basically not really have a military ready for defence for the last 30 years. Several NATO members have been reluctant to allow the Baltics and Poland to receive the same level of defence now, even though the “front line” of NATO has moved from West-East Berlin to here. We’re willing to pay, we just want credible defence. I know Lithuania wants a permanent German presence, but AFAIK, Germany said that they’re unable to carry the obligation IRL.
Let’s put us in the mindset from January 2022. There is Russia with the second best army in the world with the most nuclear weapons and a clear idea of destroying NATO. NATO itself was basically the US. The Bundeswehr was in the news continously with ridiculus operational issues, most countries had no will from the population to go to war to help the farther fringes. (In January 202, how many NATO ally would have sent troops to save, say, Latvia?) Before the war, we had Trump who is a russian asset, a traitor with a traitor party controlling the US, was completly OK to leave the NATO. Then let the Europeans solve whatever disaster he made if the US completly withdraws. Germany was appeasing the russians for decades. London is practically Londongrad, because of the high density of russian oligarch owned real estates. Hungary is essentially a russian spy base. Neonazi parties (oh I’m sorry, nationalist conservatives) in every country are in parliments at least weakening democracy.
Before the war, collapsing the NATO with sheer posturing was a feasible scenario.
There’s also an element of Russian psyche at play here. Its population has essentially been cowed into submission by brutal dictators for centuries; it was never a good idea to take a stand or voice your beliefs. Because [in Soviet Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Soviet_Russia), might makes right. Every. Time.
From that mental perspective, it would make sense that “the west” would simply take the path of least resistance and scatter away at any sign of trouble; after all, that’s pretty much what happened after the invasion in Crimea in 2014. Even if there would be some token resistance, in Putin’s mind the western world was filled with decadent, soft cowards that would stand no chance against Russian resolve, made of steel.
(This imaginary chasm is still very much reality according to Russian TV, BTW).
Also, in this warped Russian mindset, there are really only two or three countries that matter: Russia, the US, and China. Everyone else are just inconsequential “slaves” or “spheres of influence” for these three. NATO is really a forum for a bunch of small countries serving their master, the US. With the US out (via that useful fool/tool, Trump) the organization would just crumble.
Seeing what we saw in the front, people doing a Zerg rush with shovels… I can guarantee you that an average group ofTexas man with his rifle could shut down Ruzzia even without the putting too much effort, showing the real 3 days rally to take down Moscow
Fortunately, it was all a krokodili-induced, high hopium dream perpetuated by a horde of Kremlin yes-men who care only about appeasing their dictator.
In war the truth is the first casualty
> Putin imagined that after the invasion of Ukraine, an ultimatum would be issued to the West to accept Russia’s occupation of the country and that a no-fly zone would be declared over Poland and the Baltic states.
>
>After that, Russia’s “nuclear triad” of land, air and submarine “would be activated”, leading to the “withdrawal of several countries from NATO” and possibly the European Union, the source said. It added that many Western countries would be so terrified that they would even accept rocket attacks on Poland or the Baltic countries.
If the game plan was indeed kicking off a war with NATO — declaring a no-fly zone over Poland and the Baltics would have been an act of war — and hoping for a rapid and satisfactory conclusion based on playing hardball with Russia’s nuclear arsenal, I’d say that it makes Hitler’s rolls of the dice look pretty conservative in comparison. That’s a “if that went badly, there might very easily not have been much of a Russia afterwards” strategy.
Be interesting to know whether there’s any substance to this or whether this is just some author’s fantasy. The whole idea of a no-fly zone over NATO territory sounds… weird.
He’s not crazy for thinking that. Before the war, NATO was basically useless to everyone except for the Eastern European countries on Russia border. There was resentment from the US side that European countries weren’t spending 2% on defense, and there were trust issues coming out of Western Europe towards the US, It definitely seemed like the alliance was dying.
I think the biggest surprise to come out of the alliance after the beginning of the war is Germany’s actions. I would have expected Eastern Europe and Poland to get some payback on Russia by helping Ukraine, and it’s always expected macron would not want to hurt Putin’s feelings as he hopes to some day replace the US with Russia in the European alliance, but Germany has been a pleasant surprise.
We finally got to see why the US government has been so protective of Germany all these years. Turns out during a big crisis like the Ukraine war, Germany is a really good partner to have. It may have taken them some time in the beginning, but they ended up in the right place. I guess I was just expecting Scholz and macron to be in lockstep with each other. I was wrong.
The FSB leaked documents to a human rights activist ? who then passed them onto the English Sun newspaper ??
This is the same Sun newspaper that ran with the Sunday headline “Sex change vicar…wife says I’ll stay”
The world of international espionage is constantly full of surprises.
Fascinating how completly wrong he was
>The leaked documents come from a source known as Wind of Change and were reportedly sent to Russian human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, The Sun reported.
Into the trash it goes. I’m surprised that Wind of Change crap is still floating around with new releases.
I think the scenario is plausible if limited to the Baltics.
Declaring a no-fly zone over Poland would have prompted a retaliatory response from them and considering what happened last time someone laid claim to Poland, I don’t think Germany would have backed off from supporting them. Neither would the UK – no matter who the PM would be, the right wing press would be sounding the war trumpets, again, full of WW2 imagery. France would reluctantly be “guys, guys, let’s all just chill, let’s have some eclairs and talk this over”, but they’d still not outright go down the route Russia would hope (i.e. declaring themselves “not involved”). So you would have the two European nuclear powers involved, with at least one of them willing to commit more than words and prayers. And at that point, there would be enough pressure from Congress that even a non-NATO US led by Trump would be forced into backing the UK and by extension Poland.
​
The Baltics though would probably be fucked, along with Moldova – essentially reconstituting the USSR border and an an even more uneasy Cold War…
The way to break NATO would have been to sit still and do nothing for a decade and watch how NATO get’s abolished because it’s deemed expensive and unnecessary.
just as a thought exercise. He wins ukraine in his blitzkrap move early on into the invasion phase and does the stalin style genocide like he planned.
does he think nato would just roll around and die? instead of pumping more cash into armies and isolating russia even more? I am sure plan A for the west was he wins the ukraine war and HAS to do stalin style genocide because we will fund insurgency till ukraine becomes his very own vietnamese hellhole.
Any day now… /s
It’s plausible that he planned something like this. I also think that western intelligence knew this almost instantly when the war started, and that’s why the political response came so fast. And this information would have been the major reason for finland and sweden to apply for nato membership.
This “article” sound something 4chan would write.
so yep, it’s probably Russian, you can clearly see the vodka induced delusions.
Other news: Water is wet
Well he didnt have to do that, hungary and turkiye is already doing that
THe Subject should have been: Putin hoped to break NATO **with** Ukraine invasion
25 comments
Strikes me as speculative, but plausible
If true, he was/is extremely delusional. Insane.
>Putin imagined that after the invasion of Ukraine, an ultimatum would be issued to the West to accept Russia’s occupation of the country and that a no-fly zone would be declared over Poland and the Baltic states.
After that, Russia’s “nuclear triad” of land, air and submarine “would be activated”, leading to the “withdrawal of several countries from NATO” and possibly the European Union, the source said. It added that many Western countries would be so terrified that they would even accept rocket attacks on Poland or the Baltic countries.
All of this would cause a “fundamental collapse of the West within the time allotted (by Putin) after the ultimatum was issued”. Putin expected Western countries to issue “separate appeals to Russia that they are not conducting aggressive actions against Russia and are not part of the possible war”.
Clinically insane
This sounds a bit far-fetched, but let’s not forget that Putin really played on Trump getting elected and Trump repeatedly said that he’d like the US to withdraw from NATO.
Say what you want about Germany and France, but those two have been dragged – kicking and screaming – to admit that Russia has been a threat to this area for a long time. There’s a reason why so many Eastern Europeans have been extremely doubtful about Germany’s and France’s willingness to come to our aid. The belief was that to Germany, Russia is too scary to decisively act; to France, Russia is too far to be a threat and France doesn’t see the security concerns of this area as their issue to be concerned over. That’s the reason why so many countries here looked and continue to look to the US.
If Trump had been able to weaken NATO, that would’ve been a huge blow to our security. I’m not sure if the no-fly zone would’ve been declared, but I do think that in case Putin would’ve done something against us, then the core EU members would’ve been perhaps somewhat slow to respond.
I think many 2004 and onwards EU members feel that the older EU members don’t see as truly as EU members and therefore our positions may be more precarious – people willing to throw us over as long as their countries are speared.
When it comes to NATO, Germany has enjoyed the security umbrella of both NATO and the US military bases, which has enabled Germany to basically not really have a military ready for defence for the last 30 years. Several NATO members have been reluctant to allow the Baltics and Poland to receive the same level of defence now, even though the “front line” of NATO has moved from West-East Berlin to here. We’re willing to pay, we just want credible defence. I know Lithuania wants a permanent German presence, but AFAIK, Germany said that they’re unable to carry the obligation IRL.
Let’s put us in the mindset from January 2022. There is Russia with the second best army in the world with the most nuclear weapons and a clear idea of destroying NATO. NATO itself was basically the US. The Bundeswehr was in the news continously with ridiculus operational issues, most countries had no will from the population to go to war to help the farther fringes. (In January 202, how many NATO ally would have sent troops to save, say, Latvia?) Before the war, we had Trump who is a russian asset, a traitor with a traitor party controlling the US, was completly OK to leave the NATO. Then let the Europeans solve whatever disaster he made if the US completly withdraws. Germany was appeasing the russians for decades. London is practically Londongrad, because of the high density of russian oligarch owned real estates. Hungary is essentially a russian spy base. Neonazi parties (oh I’m sorry, nationalist conservatives) in every country are in parliments at least weakening democracy.
Before the war, collapsing the NATO with sheer posturing was a feasible scenario.
There’s also an element of Russian psyche at play here. Its population has essentially been cowed into submission by brutal dictators for centuries; it was never a good idea to take a stand or voice your beliefs. Because [in Soviet Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Soviet_Russia), might makes right. Every. Time.
From that mental perspective, it would make sense that “the west” would simply take the path of least resistance and scatter away at any sign of trouble; after all, that’s pretty much what happened after the invasion in Crimea in 2014. Even if there would be some token resistance, in Putin’s mind the western world was filled with decadent, soft cowards that would stand no chance against Russian resolve, made of steel.
(This imaginary chasm is still very much reality according to Russian TV, BTW).
Also, in this warped Russian mindset, there are really only two or three countries that matter: Russia, the US, and China. Everyone else are just inconsequential “slaves” or “spheres of influence” for these three. NATO is really a forum for a bunch of small countries serving their master, the US. With the US out (via that useful fool/tool, Trump) the organization would just crumble.
Seeing what we saw in the front, people doing a Zerg rush with shovels… I can guarantee you that an average group ofTexas man with his rifle could shut down Ruzzia even without the putting too much effort, showing the real 3 days rally to take down Moscow
Fortunately, it was all a krokodili-induced, high hopium dream perpetuated by a horde of Kremlin yes-men who care only about appeasing their dictator.
In war the truth is the first casualty
> Putin imagined that after the invasion of Ukraine, an ultimatum would be issued to the West to accept Russia’s occupation of the country and that a no-fly zone would be declared over Poland and the Baltic states.
>
>After that, Russia’s “nuclear triad” of land, air and submarine “would be activated”, leading to the “withdrawal of several countries from NATO” and possibly the European Union, the source said. It added that many Western countries would be so terrified that they would even accept rocket attacks on Poland or the Baltic countries.
If the game plan was indeed kicking off a war with NATO — declaring a no-fly zone over Poland and the Baltics would have been an act of war — and hoping for a rapid and satisfactory conclusion based on playing hardball with Russia’s nuclear arsenal, I’d say that it makes Hitler’s rolls of the dice look pretty conservative in comparison. That’s a “if that went badly, there might very easily not have been much of a Russia afterwards” strategy.
Be interesting to know whether there’s any substance to this or whether this is just some author’s fantasy. The whole idea of a no-fly zone over NATO territory sounds… weird.
He’s not crazy for thinking that. Before the war, NATO was basically useless to everyone except for the Eastern European countries on Russia border. There was resentment from the US side that European countries weren’t spending 2% on defense, and there were trust issues coming out of Western Europe towards the US, It definitely seemed like the alliance was dying.
I think the biggest surprise to come out of the alliance after the beginning of the war is Germany’s actions. I would have expected Eastern Europe and Poland to get some payback on Russia by helping Ukraine, and it’s always expected macron would not want to hurt Putin’s feelings as he hopes to some day replace the US with Russia in the European alliance, but Germany has been a pleasant surprise.
We finally got to see why the US government has been so protective of Germany all these years. Turns out during a big crisis like the Ukraine war, Germany is a really good partner to have. It may have taken them some time in the beginning, but they ended up in the right place. I guess I was just expecting Scholz and macron to be in lockstep with each other. I was wrong.
The FSB leaked documents to a human rights activist ? who then passed them onto the English Sun newspaper ??
This is the same Sun newspaper that ran with the Sunday headline “Sex change vicar…wife says I’ll stay”
The world of international espionage is constantly full of surprises.
Fascinating how completly wrong he was
>The leaked documents come from a source known as Wind of Change and were reportedly sent to Russian human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, The Sun reported.
Into the trash it goes. I’m surprised that Wind of Change crap is still floating around with new releases.
I think the scenario is plausible if limited to the Baltics.
Declaring a no-fly zone over Poland would have prompted a retaliatory response from them and considering what happened last time someone laid claim to Poland, I don’t think Germany would have backed off from supporting them. Neither would the UK – no matter who the PM would be, the right wing press would be sounding the war trumpets, again, full of WW2 imagery. France would reluctantly be “guys, guys, let’s all just chill, let’s have some eclairs and talk this over”, but they’d still not outright go down the route Russia would hope (i.e. declaring themselves “not involved”). So you would have the two European nuclear powers involved, with at least one of them willing to commit more than words and prayers. And at that point, there would be enough pressure from Congress that even a non-NATO US led by Trump would be forced into backing the UK and by extension Poland.
​
The Baltics though would probably be fucked, along with Moldova – essentially reconstituting the USSR border and an an even more uneasy Cold War…
The way to break NATO would have been to sit still and do nothing for a decade and watch how NATO get’s abolished because it’s deemed expensive and unnecessary.
just as a thought exercise. He wins ukraine in his blitzkrap move early on into the invasion phase and does the stalin style genocide like he planned.
does he think nato would just roll around and die? instead of pumping more cash into armies and isolating russia even more? I am sure plan A for the west was he wins the ukraine war and HAS to do stalin style genocide because we will fund insurgency till ukraine becomes his very own vietnamese hellhole.
Any day now… /s
It’s plausible that he planned something like this. I also think that western intelligence knew this almost instantly when the war started, and that’s why the political response came so fast. And this information would have been the major reason for finland and sweden to apply for nato membership.
This “article” sound something 4chan would write.
so yep, it’s probably Russian, you can clearly see the vodka induced delusions.
Other news: Water is wet
Well he didnt have to do that, hungary and turkiye is already doing that
THe Subject should have been: Putin hoped to break NATO **with** Ukraine invasion
Hhe. Silly boy.