OBR: House prices to fall 10% by 2024. The latest forecast from the government watchdog predicts a bigger fall in house prices than previously expected.

7 comments

  2. Mmmm so people will be in houses that are worth less than they paid for them, while they’ll be refinancing their mortgages at higher rates?

    This will end well.

    For Blackrock, I mean, it’ll end great for them, and the other investment funds swiftly turning us into a nation of tenants for foreign landlords. British people will be fucked of course.

  3. This is from section 2.51 of the [OBR’s medium term forecast](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2023/#chapter-2):

    > Our central forecast is that house prices fall by 10 per cent from their high in the fourth quarter of 2022, a 1 percentage point larger fall than in our November forecast (right panel of Chart 2.19). Property transactions are expected to drop by 20 per cent relative to their peak in the same quarter. Leading indicators from Halifax and Nationwide suggest that house prices have already fallen by 3 to 6 per cent between their peak in the middle of 2022 and February 2023. Low consumer confidence, the squeeze on real incomes, and the expectation of mortgage rate rises to come are expected to contribute to continued falls in house prices and a reduction in housing market activity.

  4. How much have they gone up by since 2019? Because it feels like it’s a lot more than 10%.

    *edit just checked and house prices are up 38% since 2016 and 27% since 2020. Cry me a fucking river.

  5. So basically they’ll drop back to 2021 levels.

    Hardly the cataclysm that some people talked about.

    Or am I totally misunderstanding?

    (Nationwide house price UK house prices increased 11.43% from q2 2021 to q2 2022)

  6. Bought in 2019.

    Yes, value went up a lot.

    If they fall 10 – even fucking 20%, I’m still in positive equity.

Leave a Reply