The EU and Japan have pushed back against a US proposal for G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, as part of negotiations ahead of a summit of the world’s most advanced economies.
A G7 leaders’ statement being drafted for their meeting in Hiroshima next month includes a pledge to replace the current sector-by-sector sanctions regime against Russia with a complete export ban with a few exemptions, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. The full export ban would include exemptions for agricultural, medical and other products.
The proposal was made by the US, according to two officials. It comes amid rising frustration in Washington with the existing system riddled with loopholes that allow Russia to continue to import western technology.
But representatives from Japan and EU countries suggested in a preparatory meeting last week that such a move would not be feasible, according to three people briefed on the discussions.
“From our perspective it is simply not do-able,” said one of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The disagreement over the measure underscores the lack of additional options available to G7 leaders as they seek to increase the economic punishment for Vladimir Putin’s regime after 14 months of war, following a number of sanctions measures that were designed to cut off vast swaths of Russia’s economy from western imports of technology, machinery and finance.
Cracking down on sanctions evasion and circumvention by third countries is the main focus of the US, UK, EU and other allies, with increased pressure on states such as Turkey, the UAE and countries in central Asia that have increased trade with Russia since western sanctions were imposed
Just do it already, it’s gonna happen sooner or later anyway.
Maybe take all the Oligarch’s money from tax havens and the city of London etc instead of killing the Russian civilian hostages. But they bank at the same places the Western billionaires do so that’s probably a no go.
Ok. Simple question that article failed to explain. Why is it “simply not do-able?”
So they will keep trading with Ruzzia and funding the weapons killing Ukranians daily.
USA 🇺🇸 #1
Does the US know that they can do it on their own .They don’t have to envolve the rest of the world
Share your opinion as mine is unproven, unsourced and you should get some salt on it.
They mostly rejected it because they did some simple dot connecting on what would happen if they did a full import ban on Russia.
For example, when they do a full import ban on Russia, does that mean Russia will stop importing these stuff? No, far from it because Russia will start importing them through the black markets which makes them less trackable and that is a problem.
Here it is not so much a choice of whether Russia gets the goods or not cause they will get the goods. It’s more a choice of being able to track and not track them, from an intelligence POV you want to be able to track them.
The other part is how Russia will get these into their black market and do you want to stop them? The answer is China, India and other neutral countries that want to stay out of this war. Let me pose the scenario of goods entering Russia via India. Do you want to sanction India when it is ultimately found out that they are importing gear on Russia’s behalf? A full sanction will force these countries to act when they find out their allies are assisting the Russians and that is the real issue. They simply dont want to sanction countries “such as Turkey, the UAE and countries in central Asia”. Mostly because it creates a you-are-either-with-us-or-against-us scenario and fuck that scenario causes problems down the road.
What’s there left to sanction anyway, except food, medicine and agriculture?
Macaroni and Cheese has to ask China if it’s okay first.
There’s a carve-out for grain exports from Russia to avoid disrupting countries that rely upon it, IIRC, though I suppose that sufficient sanctions might disrupt that output further back in the supply chain. Not sure whether that’s something to consider.
And the answer to that isn’t a simple “do a carve-out for stuff used in agriculture” either. Like, tractors are kind of critical for agriculture. But I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the same stuff one uses to ensure that you have a functioning supply of tractors can also be useful to ensure that you have a functioning supply of tracked vehicles used in war, like artillery tractors.
Ok, so, there’s a bunch of reasons why EU is saying this. They’re not *good* reasons, and it’s not that more sanctions are “un-doable” like the article implies. But the extra sanctions *are* difficult, and not just because countries wanna save money (tho a lot of it is that).
– Europe is, as a whole, barely scraping above recession, though nobody wants to say it out loud, since it tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is due to the pandemic, and obviously, the war. Europe could, and did, float the cost of both, but there’s not much buffer left – not least because the general trust people have on economy is low. And that creates political turmoil.
– Following that, Ukraine (and democracy as a whole, imo), can *not* afford a divided Europe at the moment, which is a real fear if more sanctions damage European economies much more. That added to the fact that extra sanctions will not damage Russian economy *right now*, but in the long term (as sanctions are designed to work), especially as all the big stuff is already embargoed, makes it a reasonable argument to simply “wait it out” as the sanctions already in place, take their toll. Russia is already losing 20% of it’s budget just from the oil embargoes, so the argument has some merit.
– it’s real freaking hard to divide the line between what is essential and what is not, and what can be used for war, when you’re dealing with a country that will literally dismantle smart toothbrushes to get microchips for missiles.
– a lot of the stuff not yet banned from exports is stuff which have international contracts which run through 2023. And getting rid of those requires an EU level decree, not just a decision from G7.
– US is not in as dire straits, economy wise, as Europe is. And if push came to shove, US can weather it out, because it has domestic production in a whole another level compared to EU.
– Russia can, has, and will use the grain deals for blackmail, and unlike the nuclear threats, this is a real danger. Because that can cause global famine, and Russia doesn’t give a shit if it does.
Best thing Europe could do, imo, is speed up ammunition production, and say “screw our supply storage”, and send literally everything it got for warfare to Ukraine, for speedy results.
12 comments
The EU and Japan have pushed back against a US proposal for G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, as part of negotiations ahead of a summit of the world’s most advanced economies.
A G7 leaders’ statement being drafted for their meeting in Hiroshima next month includes a pledge to replace the current sector-by-sector sanctions regime against Russia with a complete export ban with a few exemptions, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. The full export ban would include exemptions for agricultural, medical and other products.
The proposal was made by the US, according to two officials. It comes amid rising frustration in Washington with the existing system riddled with loopholes that allow Russia to continue to import western technology.
But representatives from Japan and EU countries suggested in a preparatory meeting last week that such a move would not be feasible, according to three people briefed on the discussions.
“From our perspective it is simply not do-able,” said one of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The disagreement over the measure underscores the lack of additional options available to G7 leaders as they seek to increase the economic punishment for Vladimir Putin’s regime after 14 months of war, following a number of sanctions measures that were designed to cut off vast swaths of Russia’s economy from western imports of technology, machinery and finance.
Cracking down on sanctions evasion and circumvention by third countries is the main focus of the US, UK, EU and other allies, with increased pressure on states such as Turkey, the UAE and countries in central Asia that have increased trade with Russia since western sanctions were imposed
Just do it already, it’s gonna happen sooner or later anyway.
Maybe take all the Oligarch’s money from tax havens and the city of London etc instead of killing the Russian civilian hostages. But they bank at the same places the Western billionaires do so that’s probably a no go.
Ok. Simple question that article failed to explain. Why is it “simply not do-able?”
So they will keep trading with Ruzzia and funding the weapons killing Ukranians daily.
USA 🇺🇸 #1
Does the US know that they can do it on their own .They don’t have to envolve the rest of the world
Share your opinion as mine is unproven, unsourced and you should get some salt on it.
They mostly rejected it because they did some simple dot connecting on what would happen if they did a full import ban on Russia.
For example, when they do a full import ban on Russia, does that mean Russia will stop importing these stuff? No, far from it because Russia will start importing them through the black markets which makes them less trackable and that is a problem.
Here it is not so much a choice of whether Russia gets the goods or not cause they will get the goods. It’s more a choice of being able to track and not track them, from an intelligence POV you want to be able to track them.
The other part is how Russia will get these into their black market and do you want to stop them? The answer is China, India and other neutral countries that want to stay out of this war. Let me pose the scenario of goods entering Russia via India. Do you want to sanction India when it is ultimately found out that they are importing gear on Russia’s behalf? A full sanction will force these countries to act when they find out their allies are assisting the Russians and that is the real issue. They simply dont want to sanction countries “such as Turkey, the UAE and countries in central Asia”. Mostly because it creates a you-are-either-with-us-or-against-us scenario and fuck that scenario causes problems down the road.
What’s there left to sanction anyway, except food, medicine and agriculture?
Macaroni and Cheese has to ask China if it’s okay first.
There’s a carve-out for grain exports from Russia to avoid disrupting countries that rely upon it, IIRC, though I suppose that sufficient sanctions might disrupt that output further back in the supply chain. Not sure whether that’s something to consider.
And the answer to that isn’t a simple “do a carve-out for stuff used in agriculture” either. Like, tractors are kind of critical for agriculture. But I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the same stuff one uses to ensure that you have a functioning supply of tractors can also be useful to ensure that you have a functioning supply of tracked vehicles used in war, like artillery tractors.
Ok, so, there’s a bunch of reasons why EU is saying this. They’re not *good* reasons, and it’s not that more sanctions are “un-doable” like the article implies. But the extra sanctions *are* difficult, and not just because countries wanna save money (tho a lot of it is that).
– Europe is, as a whole, barely scraping above recession, though nobody wants to say it out loud, since it tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is due to the pandemic, and obviously, the war. Europe could, and did, float the cost of both, but there’s not much buffer left – not least because the general trust people have on economy is low. And that creates political turmoil.
– Following that, Ukraine (and democracy as a whole, imo), can *not* afford a divided Europe at the moment, which is a real fear if more sanctions damage European economies much more. That added to the fact that extra sanctions will not damage Russian economy *right now*, but in the long term (as sanctions are designed to work), especially as all the big stuff is already embargoed, makes it a reasonable argument to simply “wait it out” as the sanctions already in place, take their toll. Russia is already losing 20% of it’s budget just from the oil embargoes, so the argument has some merit.
– it’s real freaking hard to divide the line between what is essential and what is not, and what can be used for war, when you’re dealing with a country that will literally dismantle smart toothbrushes to get microchips for missiles.
– a lot of the stuff not yet banned from exports is stuff which have international contracts which run through 2023. And getting rid of those requires an EU level decree, not just a decision from G7.
– US is not in as dire straits, economy wise, as Europe is. And if push came to shove, US can weather it out, because it has domestic production in a whole another level compared to EU.
– Russia can, has, and will use the grain deals for blackmail, and unlike the nuclear threats, this is a real danger. Because that can cause global famine, and Russia doesn’t give a shit if it does.
Best thing Europe could do, imo, is speed up ammunition production, and say “screw our supply storage”, and send literally everything it got for warfare to Ukraine, for speedy results.