One of the most reputable polling organizations in Turkey, KONDA, shared their results ahead of the presidental and parliamentary elections

22 comments

  2. KONDA is known for accurately predicting the Presidental Election in 2018 and Istanbul Local Election in 2019.

    **KONDA’s prediction for Presidental Election in 2018:**

    *51%* Erdogan (AKP + MHP)

    *28%* Ince (CHP)

    *?%* Other

    **Actual results:**

    *52%* Erdogan (AKP + MHP)

    *30%* Ince (CHP)

    *?%* Other

    **KONDA’s prediction for Istanbul local election in 2019:**

    *54%* Imamoglu (CHP + IYI)

    *45%* Yildirim (AKP + MHP)

    *?%* Other

    **Actual results:**

    *54%* Imamoglu (CHP + IYI)

    *44%* Yildirim (AKP + MHP)

    *?%* Other

    [source](https://tr.euronews.com/2023/05/08/2023-cumhurbaskanligi-secimi-son-anket-sonuclari-erdogan-ve-kilicdaroglunun-oy-orani-kac)

    Kilicdaroglu (CHP + IYI + Saadet + DEVA + Gelecek + DP) has a decent chance to win in the first round.

  3. There is no chance for İnce to get more than 3% votes. Even that is a humble estimate. My guess is he and Oğan combined will amount to %5 of votes.

  5. And it should be noted that this polling was done before the Erzurum incident where opposition’s vice president candidate was attacked by a crowd. This may consolidate enough voters to put it to an end in the first round.

  10. 6% difference is too narrow a margin. Erdogans shenanigans will make this vanish on sunday and claim a narrow victory.

    I have no hopes in free and fair elections in Turkey. I have every hope in Erdogans indiscriminatory grip on power with all means necessary.

    I will update this after the election but my claim is that Erdogan will not allow a loss through democratic means.

  11. The poll was conducted on May 6-7. That is, before the attack on İmamoğlu in Erzurum. This increases Kılıçdaroğlu’s chances of finishing in the first round. Also, Bekir Ağırdır, former director of KONDA, says that most of the undecided voters will vote for Kılıçdaroğlu.

  12. Tbh I’m afraid the fact that this election will go in the 2nd round and that AKP cheat or buy YSP and that Kurds betray us. I don’t trust Selahattin Demirtaş nor Kurds.

    I hope so much I’m wrong.

  13. I would love Turkey to start a change within Europe. Kaczynski in winter would be next in line for prison if the wave of change were to be started definitely.

  16. Everytime we see this the lead gets smaller and smaller. As an American I am bias into thinking they are just preparing you guys for the inevitable win by erdogan. Best of luck getting that guy out of office!!

  19. It’s joever for the islamist goons. They are bidone for. I was sceptical of CHP win in first round but even Konda shows a picture like this. I will crack open a beer to this.

  20. 0,7 per cent.

    Everybody that voted for Ogan or Inci needs to get their heads examined. Inci is just their to shit on Kilicdaroglu and Ogan doesn’t even know where he is.

    I’ve stopped asking about Erdogan voters long time ago. They are lost beyond reproach.

  21. Konda is the real deal, what they call usually happens to be true unlike some biased polling companies. But:

    1- Their polls were done before Erzurum incident where Ekrem İmamoğlu, VP candidate under Kılıçdaroğlu was stoned by Grey Wolves who support Erdoğan, causing many people in the rally to get injured including children. This gathered a lot of support from bottom two candidates’ voters.

    2- This poll is so reliable that Turkish Lira value and markets have improved with their call. There are even rumours of last place candidate, İnce, discussing “unofficially” withdrawing from elections in favour of Kılıçdaroğlu and he’ll make an announcement on 2 o’clock GMT+3, I’m not so hopeful but we’ll see.

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