Housing market risk indicators by country

13 comments
  1. fake news, they don’t understand luxembourg /s. the average commenter on RTL who gets the “market” is who you should talk to.

    they can tell you that the prices will only keep going up forever, the worst that could possibly happen is that they don’t go up 10% OVER inflation because inflation is high. worst case only 2% more from the previous top next year.

    anyone saying anything else is just too poor to get it and bitter!

    again, this is one big load of sarcasm after years of reading this shit over and over but need to point it out because there is STILL people who believe all this.

  2. Sources (IMF):

    Here is the original press release from which the infographic comes from.

    [https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/05/31/how-falling-home-prices-could-strain-financial-markets-as-interest-rates-rise](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/05/31/how-falling-home-prices-could-strain-financial-markets-as-interest-rates-rise)

    Here is the in-depth analysis of the IMF (03/2023) (pdf download available)

    [https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/24/European-Housing-Markets-at-a-Turning-Point-Risks-Household-and-Bank-Vulnerabilities-and-531349](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/24/European-Housing-Markets-at-a-Turning-Point-Risks-Household-and-Bank-Vulnerabilities-and-531349)

  3. The Government is in such a sh***y situation when it comes to the housing market.

    – Houses are now so expensive banks are becoming more cautious lending to potential buyers, because they may no longer be able to afford the interest payments.

    – The government cannot take any interventions to reduce the house prices, as this will disadvantage those that have already invested into the housing market, imagine putting millions in a house only to see it lose a significant portion of that not to mention for the next generation who will inherit the house.

    – The government is partially relying on the high house prices to incentivise companies to build new housing, to solve the housing shortage.

  4. My prediction remains that

    * there will be a downward correction (but nowhere near enough to make up the higher financing costs of a +5% fixed mortgage vs, a 1% fixed mortgage);
    * people, who maxed out their borrowing capacity on a variable rate, will be stuffed;
    * lack of construction will significantly slow down the downwards correction;
    * deep pockets will pick up properties once prices bottom out and rent them out (rent increasing as more people rent rather than buy).

  5. Does anyone else around here still remember the BIL Immo index?

    [https://www.bil.com/en/bil-group/pressroom/news/Pages/bil-immoindex-the-housing-market-is-more-buoyant-than-ever.aspx#:~:text=Launched%20in%20October%202015%20and,professional%2C%20institutional%20and%20retail%20investors](https://www.bil.com/en/bil-group/pressroom/news/Pages/bil-immoindex-the-housing-market-is-more-buoyant-than-ever.aspx#:~:text=Launched%20in%20October%202015%20and,professional%2C%20institutional%20and%20retail%20investors).

    [https://www.bil.com/Documents/brochures/bil-brochures-immoindex-en.pdf](https://www.bil.com/Documents/brochures/bil-brochures-immoindex-en.pdf)

    They were saying the market overheated even from 2018 and then they stopped publishing it.

  6. Greece being low risk is a farcical joke.

    The situation would be funny if it weren’t sad. I know from friends who live there that tiny sub-floors or basements turned into “appartments” go for 3 or 400 euros in the Athens city centre, with median salaries around 1000 euro. Normal 1 bedroom apartments go for 500 to 600 euros (old) and if the building is new, you’re looking at 800 or more.

    The equivalent in Luxembourg (median salary 3500 euro net) would be 1400 euro for the shithole and about 2500 to 3000 for a normal apartment. This is clearly not the case.

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