> * 8.6 million Ukrainians have not returned to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion
> * As of May 2023, the permanent population of Ukraine is, according to UIF estimates, 29 million people
> * Only 9.1-9.5 million Ukrainians work, and if we subtract state employees, the number drops to 6-7 million. They are carrying the remaining 22-23 million people, including pensioners, children, students, unemployed, dependents, state employees, etc.
> * The fertility rate has already fallen below 1, while it should be more than 2 for population growth
> * If nothing is changed, in a few years there will be twice as many pensioners in Ukraine as there are working people
> That is why the issue of demography should be voiced by the President of Ukraine as a priority for today and which requires urgent measures.
Seems like 2/3rds returning will be a best case scenario. And once the war is over and Ukrainian men can cross the border, I can imagine a significant number of them going straight to their daughters / mothers /wives in the west.
It is important to note that Ukraine also had a terrible fertility rate before the war.
Ukraine population went from 52 millions in 1990 to 42 million in 2020, they lost 10 millions people in only 30 years.
Things will get even more dire with the prevision of droughts throughout europe for the next two years.
Before I moved out from there it was 46 millions. (If I remember correctly)
4 comments
Original source is the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.
[Telegram post](https://i.imgur.com/HaLCm5K.png)
Translation:
> There will be no one to build Ukraine’s GDP:
> * 8.6 million Ukrainians have not returned to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion
> * As of May 2023, the permanent population of Ukraine is, according to UIF estimates, 29 million people
> * Only 9.1-9.5 million Ukrainians work, and if we subtract state employees, the number drops to 6-7 million. They are carrying the remaining 22-23 million people, including pensioners, children, students, unemployed, dependents, state employees, etc.
> * The fertility rate has already fallen below 1, while it should be more than 2 for population growth
> * If nothing is changed, in a few years there will be twice as many pensioners in Ukraine as there are working people
> That is why the issue of demography should be voiced by the President of Ukraine as a priority for today and which requires urgent measures.
> What should be the steps of state policy to preserve the nation, read in the report “New Economic Policy of Ukraine” (https://uifuture.org/publications/nova-ekonomichna-polityka/)
—
[The image that breaks down how they reached the figure of 29 million](https://i.imgur.com/nb3LzQH.jpg)
37.6m in early 2022 – 20.7m who left + 12.1 who returned
17m economically inactive & 12m economically active (of the latter, 2.5-2.9m are unemployed)
—
I don’t know how they got to 20.7m exactly, seems huge. The 29m figure does not seem that far off, given less than 40m before the war.
In this context, here are some relevant numbers:
– [One third of Ukrainian refugees in EU want to return home](https://kyivindependent.com/poll-one-third-of-ukrainian-refugees-in-eu-want-to-return-home/)
– [45% of Ukrainian refugees in Poland want to stay there or move to another European country](https://gremi-personal.com.ua/skilki-bizhenciv-ne-povernutsja-v-ukrainu-doslidzhennja/)
– [37% of Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay there permanently or at least for several years](https://www.bib.bund.de/EN/News/2023/2023-02-16-New-Study-How-do-refugees-from-Ukraine-live-in-Germany.html)
Seems like 2/3rds returning will be a best case scenario. And once the war is over and Ukrainian men can cross the border, I can imagine a significant number of them going straight to their daughters / mothers /wives in the west.
It is important to note that Ukraine also had a terrible fertility rate before the war.
Ukraine population went from 52 millions in 1990 to 42 million in 2020, they lost 10 millions people in only 30 years.
Things will get even more dire with the prevision of droughts throughout europe for the next two years.
Before I moved out from there it was 46 millions. (If I remember correctly)