There was an economist on with Claire Byrne a few weeks ago and he predicted this. Parties will want to spend the surplus because that’s what gets them votes. Tax-cuts being the preferred method. The Tories are doing it too. Madness! Fail to invest and you invest in failure!
What they’re saying about hosting is also interesting, if depressing. [Rents to stay growing around 4-5% a year](https://i.imgur.com/MZqGQaU.png). They also make a good point around [construction employment](https://i.imgur.com/OFp4Aq1.jpg) which as you can see is around where it was in 2004, when we were building over twice the number of new dwellings that we are now.
It’s one of the few places I’ve seen them acknowledge the crowding out effect of other construction
>In 2022, there were just over 63,500 workers engaged in the construction of
buildings, compared to a peak of 115,550 for 2007 — which also coincided
with peak inward migration of 151,100. This suggests that without significant
immigration of building workers over coming years, or a switching of workers into construction from other sectors, it is unlikely that the shortage of dwellings in
Ireland will be meaningfully addressed. However, it is important to note that some often the observed shortfall in new dwelling completions could reflect a “crowding
out” effect by investment activities elsewhere in the economy — for example, construction of offices, hotels, factories, data centres, schools, hospitals, and other non-residential building projects
Is is not the media pressure posing a risk to public finances. I can’t imagine too many government politicians mounting pressure because of this.
Increasing tax bands by inflation is not a “tax cut”. There is lots of spending which is linked to inflation, I’d like to see the taxes we pay linked to inflation also. If a government wants to increase taxes, it needs to come out and publicly say it’s doing this – stealth taxes are a sneaky way to increase taxes on workers.
FG controlled Ireland finances for 12 years, they kept the purse strings tight and constantly touted caution as the reason.
Now that they’ve lost control, they’re trying to pressure another party to loosen the purse strings so they can be free of any responsibility if things go wrong or claim a victory if it benefits voters.
They’ve squeezed the middle and now they’re trying to buy them back.
Getting more of the tax share from land tax would make revenues more stable while making land speculation less worthwhile.
Tax cuts are expensive and very difficult to reverse. If you plan to spend on infrastructure projects you can always cancel or scale back a project when finances take a hit.
With tax cuts the money is gone and people will fight a new tax even if it makes sense. The average person hasn’t a clue about public finances and only sees things in terms of their own pocket. A €1000 tax cut isn’t that big for most people but the knock on effect to public services is multiplied every year.
Tax cuts are rarely a good idea and it’s 2 faced politics from fine Gael to have 3 junior ministers fly this kite while senior ministers refuse to agree or condemn it. We are in a precarious financial position masked by corporation tax receipts if fine Gael can’t see that or don’t care then they have absolutely no place in government. It’s mad to see Fianna Fáil as the fiscally responsible party now.
How about letting long cohabiting couples claim each other’s tax credits and cut off point. Married in the eyes of the social welfare but not to revenue
Just build a few fuckin houses you jackasses ffs
There is no tax cut they could possibly give me that would receive any response more positive than “Huh, ok.”
Extra few quid in my pocket? Great, maybe I can spend it on the doctor when I next get an appointment, should be one free in 3-4 months time.
Can we just stop with the Irish times already? It’s full of shite, all they do is support the status quo and hype up everything to misery.
Cuts to social spending are way outside the Overton window I see.
How about doing a smart thing and getting rid of the retarded deemed disposal, or even increasing the CGT allowance
They love adding taxes but God forbid allowing people to save more of their own hard earned money.
You earn your money for yourseif first, not the taxman.
They have to do something on tax. Cost of living is rampant and we tax mid/high earners excessively and have done since the banking crisis of 09. Time to reign it in a bit and remember who pays for our state.
.at the very minimum the 52% tax rate should move under 50% and the threshold when you start to pay the highest tax band needs to be pushed back.
15 comments
There was an economist on with Claire Byrne a few weeks ago and he predicted this. Parties will want to spend the surplus because that’s what gets them votes. Tax-cuts being the preferred method. The Tories are doing it too. Madness! Fail to invest and you invest in failure!
Here’s the actual paper from the Fiscal Advisory Council: https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/fiscal-assessment-report-june-2023-2/
Some interesting stuff in there, but obviously the most basic of those is the [government balance when you exclude the windfall corporation tax receipts](https://i.imgur.com/mSH9nxB.jpg). Basically there’s a surplus, for as long as [Microsoft, Pfizer, and Apple](https://thecurrency.news/articles/119617/who-are-the-three-multinationals-paying-one-third-of-irelands-corporation-tax/) continue to have a good time and book profits here.
What they’re saying about hosting is also interesting, if depressing. [Rents to stay growing around 4-5% a year](https://i.imgur.com/MZqGQaU.png). They also make a good point around [construction employment](https://i.imgur.com/OFp4Aq1.jpg) which as you can see is around where it was in 2004, when we were building over twice the number of new dwellings that we are now.
It’s one of the few places I’ve seen them acknowledge the crowding out effect of other construction
>In 2022, there were just over 63,500 workers engaged in the construction of
buildings, compared to a peak of 115,550 for 2007 — which also coincided
with peak inward migration of 151,100. This suggests that without significant
immigration of building workers over coming years, or a switching of workers into construction from other sectors, it is unlikely that the shortage of dwellings in
Ireland will be meaningfully addressed. However, it is important to note that some often the observed shortfall in new dwelling completions could reflect a “crowding
out” effect by investment activities elsewhere in the economy — for example, construction of offices, hotels, factories, data centres, schools, hospitals, and other non-residential building projects
The [investment picture in housing is especially depressing](https://i.imgur.com/F4LNqcA.jpg) as is [has been for a long time except for the few years when it hasn’t been](https://i.imgur.com/ipxICLt.jpg) and that lack of investment has had [totally unsurprising effects.](https://i.imgur.com/nxq1Qdj.jpg)
Is is not the media pressure posing a risk to public finances. I can’t imagine too many government politicians mounting pressure because of this.
Increasing tax bands by inflation is not a “tax cut”. There is lots of spending which is linked to inflation, I’d like to see the taxes we pay linked to inflation also. If a government wants to increase taxes, it needs to come out and publicly say it’s doing this – stealth taxes are a sneaky way to increase taxes on workers.
FG controlled Ireland finances for 12 years, they kept the purse strings tight and constantly touted caution as the reason.
Now that they’ve lost control, they’re trying to pressure another party to loosen the purse strings so they can be free of any responsibility if things go wrong or claim a victory if it benefits voters.
They’ve squeezed the middle and now they’re trying to buy them back.
Getting more of the tax share from land tax would make revenues more stable while making land speculation less worthwhile.
Tax cuts are expensive and very difficult to reverse. If you plan to spend on infrastructure projects you can always cancel or scale back a project when finances take a hit.
With tax cuts the money is gone and people will fight a new tax even if it makes sense. The average person hasn’t a clue about public finances and only sees things in terms of their own pocket. A €1000 tax cut isn’t that big for most people but the knock on effect to public services is multiplied every year.
Tax cuts are rarely a good idea and it’s 2 faced politics from fine Gael to have 3 junior ministers fly this kite while senior ministers refuse to agree or condemn it. We are in a precarious financial position masked by corporation tax receipts if fine Gael can’t see that or don’t care then they have absolutely no place in government. It’s mad to see Fianna Fáil as the fiscally responsible party now.
How about letting long cohabiting couples claim each other’s tax credits and cut off point. Married in the eyes of the social welfare but not to revenue
Just build a few fuckin houses you jackasses ffs
There is no tax cut they could possibly give me that would receive any response more positive than “Huh, ok.”
Extra few quid in my pocket? Great, maybe I can spend it on the doctor when I next get an appointment, should be one free in 3-4 months time.
Can we just stop with the Irish times already? It’s full of shite, all they do is support the status quo and hype up everything to misery.
Cuts to social spending are way outside the Overton window I see.
How about doing a smart thing and getting rid of the retarded deemed disposal, or even increasing the CGT allowance
They love adding taxes but God forbid allowing people to save more of their own hard earned money.
You earn your money for yourseif first, not the taxman.
They have to do something on tax. Cost of living is rampant and we tax mid/high earners excessively and have done since the banking crisis of 09. Time to reign it in a bit and remember who pays for our state.
.at the very minimum the 52% tax rate should move under 50% and the threshold when you start to pay the highest tax band needs to be pushed back.