Sobering analysis by @Tatarigami_UA: It becomes evident that Russian forces still maintain a considerable number of tanks in operational condition. Consequently, statements insinuating that they are almost depleted of equipment are not accurate.
by MatchingTurret
15 comments
Literally nothing of value over 11 tweets. Russia is still operating tanks, they still have hundreds, they’re losing over 20 a week in Ukraine.
To note that his analysis seems focused on training grounds, where equipment is importantly needed, and could be the last place where they remove them from outside of the front.
And even then they would still need them for training because ruzzia still has lots of km of borders to protect with tanks.
I m sure he believes his analysis is correct and he has clearly put a lot of effort in to it. However many other analysts have sifted through Satellite pictures of Russian storage sites, loss rates and wastage due to poor storage etc have have come to a different position. Analysing pictures of two active training grounds and deciding that as they have sufficient vehicles does not confirm his central thesis that there is no shortage.
It is possible he has a touch of conformation bias where he is seeing what he expects to see due to his original theory. He mentions the T55’s being used as fire support a role they were never designed or intended for without so far as I can tell addressing the reason for this a critical lack of tube artillery.
He does not address the confirmed issuing of T62/64 Tanks to front line units in lieu of the much more modern tank variants nor the apparent lack of modern optics fitted to these vehicles.
I have not seen comments that they are almost out of tanks, but I have seen lots of comments that they are struggling to issue up to date armoured vehicles. Consequently they are removing from storage unsuitable and in many cases unusable vehicles for direct issue to front line units, clearly not a good place to be in an active war zone.
> Due to security considerations, detailed information regarding enemy personnel and vehicle concentration across russia shouldn’t be disclosed
Huh?
Zero “analysis” of substance or value in those tweets. Also, countering the “statements insinuating that they are almost depleted of equipment” is a strawman exercise.
The last assessment was that they are down to having just as many tanks as Ukraine, while continuing to lose more. That is still a considerable number, but a very bad trend, considering where both sides started.
Russia has a lot of tanks in reserve. Go figure.
In other news, water has been found inside the Black Sea. Stay tuned for the latest developments. Apparently, unconfirmed rumors speculate the Pope is Catholic.
Now, about the 30km upgrade for Saint Javelin.
Even if is absolutely true, is also true that Ukraine refined his drone warfare to a point a 400$ quadrotor with a hooked grenade can give bad news for the tank crew.
Another sobering or neutral labelled analysis explaining why the second strongest army in the world hasn’t performed as bad as the results on the ground says. Doesn’t even try to explain why Russia uses t55 when apparently so many t72 is in stock. Crap analysis.
“No, you lie, we were told that ruzia ran out of missiles, tanks and people… “ (c) typical redditor
Quote: “It is true that Russians have been employing outdated tanks like the T55/54 predominantly in the South for the past year. Despite their age, these tanks pose a significant threat as they engage through indirect fire, corrected by drones, making them unreachable for AT means.”
Russia will never run out of military equipment. There will always be something they can drag out of storage. But T-55s and T-54s cannot go up even against an upgraded t-80 let alone NATO tech. Sure they can be used as spg’s but the gun barrels are not designed for prolonged repeated fire and will soon get worn out. Sure they can be dug in and surrounded by walls but then they’re little more than pill boxes. On the battlefield in Ukraine, they’re no longer suitable as main battle tanks. The Ukrainian army does have a few of them still in operation but that is not because of choice.
In Luhansk Oblast there is – in theory – hundreds of tanks. But there has been no sign of them going into battle as a force. Even when there was a clear Russian breakthrough in Luhansk Oblast (with an advance of over 10 km) there were very few tanks employed and not as a large mass. Lots of cheap bmp’s but no mass tanks. Partly because so few tanks were used, the Ukrainians were able to contain the breakthrough and the Russians were (over the course of two or three days) driven back to their lines.
Another clue that Russia no longer has hundreds of effective main battle tanks is the number destroyed each week. Compared to a few months ago, it’s gone down significantly. We know the quality has definitely not gone up. We know there’s been a number of major attacks and counter attacks. Which implies the quantity put to work on the battlefield has gone down.
Yeah, its been the media saying Russia was “running out” of tanks, not Ukraine. Doesn’t change the fact that the quality and number of tanks is reduced, and continues to BE reduced.
The number of artillery systems is reduced, and continues being reduced. Number of fixed wing aircraft. Number of rotary wing aircraft. Number of armored vehicles. Number of antiaircraft systems. And quite simply, the number and quality of enemy troops is steadily being degraded.
The nearest equivalent is the Nazis at the start of 1944. We knew they were being hurt, we just didn’t know for a “fact” how much they had left until D-Day.
Tfw you see a “sobering analysis” for the fifteen millionth time in the span of like two weeks.
Some nice geolocating going on there. Potential juicy targets for Storm Shadows.
Was it 3300 that was the reported operational number at the start of the war? We have long since passed that. They still have lots in storage I guess that they can still get out. But the ratio vs fixing, storage and destroyed is still not great I would imagine.