I’m gonna repost my comment about the Russian sanctions:
They’re not a joke at all. The West did underestimate Russia’s resilience and staggered its sanctions which lessened the shock they could have produced. But they’re still very powerful. For one thing all financial sanctions target growth not just current GDP. Being embargoed by half the world economy and having extra costs added to everything you do is going to weigh on growth significantly.
For another Russia shouldn’t be compared to itself from last year but to what it could have been. Saudi Arabia grew 9% last year. A lot of oil producers grew. Russia’s -2% is just 2% worse than zero, but it’s much worse compared to what could have been without the sanctions.
Russia should also be compared to its ex-socialist peers from Europe rather than Western countries. And while EE countries have grown by leaps and bounds, Russia has stagnated.
Even Bulgaria is richer than Russia these days and we’re last in the EU. Russia with all its vast resources, the highest education rate in the OECD and low taxes can’t outdevelop Bulgaria. This is enormous wasted potential. Other Eastern EU countries are leapfrogging Japan meanwhile Russia is self-satisfied for not completely collapsing. It has (nearly) kept pace with the West but it has fallen behind in its own neighbourhood. The 2014 financial sanctions, the lack of market access and the corruption harmed development. Well now all these factors have been turned up significantly.
Old news, we’re already over 100$
“All according to plan”
Well, Lira is way worse. How much liras for one dollar today? Is turkey’s economy collapsing? I’m all for Russian economy to suffer and I hope they are/will.
4 comments
I’m gonna repost my comment about the Russian sanctions:
They’re not a joke at all. The West did underestimate Russia’s resilience and staggered its sanctions which lessened the shock they could have produced. But they’re still very powerful. For one thing all financial sanctions target growth not just current GDP. Being embargoed by half the world economy and having extra costs added to everything you do is going to weigh on growth significantly.
For another Russia shouldn’t be compared to itself from last year but to what it could have been. Saudi Arabia grew 9% last year. A lot of oil producers grew. Russia’s -2% is just 2% worse than zero, but it’s much worse compared to what could have been without the sanctions.
Russia should also be compared to its ex-socialist peers from Europe rather than Western countries. And while EE countries have grown by leaps and bounds, Russia has stagnated.
Even Bulgaria is richer than Russia these days and we’re last in the EU. Russia with all its vast resources, the highest education rate in the OECD and low taxes can’t outdevelop Bulgaria. This is enormous wasted potential. Other Eastern EU countries are leapfrogging Japan meanwhile Russia is self-satisfied for not completely collapsing. It has (nearly) kept pace with the West but it has fallen behind in its own neighbourhood. The 2014 financial sanctions, the lack of market access and the corruption harmed development. Well now all these factors have been turned up significantly.
Old news, we’re already over 100$
“All according to plan”
Well, Lira is way worse. How much liras for one dollar today? Is turkey’s economy collapsing? I’m all for Russian economy to suffer and I hope they are/will.