Fairly good recap from an open source perspective.
>The recent footage of reservist exercises most likely is related to the recently instituted BARS higher readiness reserve force. It is being formed on a voluntary contract basis and is unlikely to reach the estimated 100,000 personnel at least in the coming months. Those reservists, one should add, are intended for rapid reinforcement of regular units and forming the basis of a general mobilization, not for occupation duties
Other experts, like Kofman, have argued that these reservists would precisely be used follow-on forces/occupation duties.
>All of these new developments lead us to a conclusion that by the New Year the concentration of vehicles near Ukraine’s borders and in Crimea has reached an unprecedented scale, most likely surpassing the April figures. Back then, forces largely from two armies were involved (the 41st and the 58th), and now they’ve been joined by units from up to three other armies (1st Tank, 2nd, and 6th), as well as, most likely, the North Fleet ground forces. Apart from tanks, artillery and other combat vehicles, we see the transfer of anti-air systems and auxiliary vehicles. Given the increasingly alarming rhetoric of the Russian officials, this suggests a distinct possibility that an order to begin an operation in Ukraine-controlled territory could be given in the coming weeks.
>All of the above indicates that the planned operation is unlikely to entail a capture of large areas or big cities of Ukraine, let alone a drive to the Dnipro river and an occupation of the entire eastern half of the country. We believe the most realistic scenario would be an attempt to deliver a rapid and sound defeat to a large grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area, possibly in the Joint Forces Operation zone in the Donbas. Such an operation would apparently demonstrate Russia’s resolve in protecting itself from the “NATO threat” (as opposed to the Alliance members’ reluctance to render direct military aid to Ukraine) and allow to hold talks from a stronger position.
Well that’s fucked up
The location on the photo is about 180 km drive from Ukraine.
Does not look like it is right on its border
4 comments
Fairly good recap from an open source perspective.
>The recent footage of reservist exercises most likely is related to the recently instituted BARS higher readiness reserve force. It is being formed on a voluntary contract basis and is unlikely to reach the estimated 100,000 personnel at least in the coming months. Those reservists, one should add, are intended for rapid reinforcement of regular units and forming the basis of a general mobilization, not for occupation duties
Other experts, like Kofman, have argued that these reservists would precisely be used follow-on forces/occupation duties.
>All of these new developments lead us to a conclusion that by the New Year the concentration of vehicles near Ukraine’s borders and in Crimea has reached an unprecedented scale, most likely surpassing the April figures. Back then, forces largely from two armies were involved (the 41st and the 58th), and now they’ve been joined by units from up to three other armies (1st Tank, 2nd, and 6th), as well as, most likely, the North Fleet ground forces. Apart from tanks, artillery and other combat vehicles, we see the transfer of anti-air systems and auxiliary vehicles. Given the increasingly alarming rhetoric of the Russian officials, this suggests a distinct possibility that an order to begin an operation in Ukraine-controlled territory could be given in the coming weeks.
>All of the above indicates that the planned operation is unlikely to entail a capture of large areas or big cities of Ukraine, let alone a drive to the Dnipro river and an occupation of the entire eastern half of the country. We believe the most realistic scenario would be an attempt to deliver a rapid and sound defeat to a large grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area, possibly in the Joint Forces Operation zone in the Donbas. Such an operation would apparently demonstrate Russia’s resolve in protecting itself from the “NATO threat” (as opposed to the Alliance members’ reluctance to render direct military aid to Ukraine) and allow to hold talks from a stronger position.
Well that’s fucked up
The location on the photo is about 180 km drive from Ukraine.
Does not look like it is right on its border
is this a news site? very specialized