>According to the French Treasury, Azerbaijan has the world’s 25th largest proven gas reserves and an annual production capacity of around 36 billion cubic metres per year [or at least that was the figure put forward in 2019]. This has enabled it to export 11.6 billion cubic metres, 79% of which to Turkey. And by 2020, the plan was to increase production to 54 billion cubic metres a year by exploiting the Absheron and Umid-Babek fields.
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>”However, the increase in domestic consumption [11.5 billion m3 in 2019, +8.7%) is creating pressure on the volumes of Azerbaijani gas that can be exported. In 2017, the country even signed an import contract with [Russian group] Gazprom to cover its needs. The government therefore intends to pursue a policy of intensive extraction, with volumes extracted from the Shah Deniz field set to increase by 13% in 2020″, noted the French Treasury.
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>That said, with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions it has imposed on Russia, the European Union [EU] is seeking to diversify its sources of natural gas supplies. So it has turned to Azerbaijan.
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>In July 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Baku to sign an agreement committing Azerbaijan to exporting 20 billion cubic metres of gas to the EU by 2027. Other energy projects were also put on the table, notably in the field of renewable energies [hydrogen, solar], with the promise of investment, including €60 million from European funds.
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>And on this occasion, Mrs von der Leyen described Azerbaijan as a “reliable and trustworthy partner”… despite its threats to use force to force Nagorno-Karabakh – populated mainly by Armenians – back into its fold and to settle other territorial disputes with Armenia.
>
>So when Baku ‘strangled’ Nagorno-Karabakh [or the Republic of Artsakh] by closing the Latchine corridor, its only route to Armenia, the EU looked the other way… But it was not alone…
>
>As guarantor of the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020 to put an end to an offensive launched a few weeks earlier by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia let it happen. Just as it was passive when, on 19 September, Baku carried out a lightning military operation to seize this territory without a fight.
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>Since then, the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliev, has been at pains to assure us that the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will be guaranteed… Out of a population of 150,000, more than 50,000 have already taken refuge in Armenia. And there’s more to come.
>
>Now that he has regained control of a territory that was “given” to him by Stalin in the days of the Soviet Union, will President Aliyev stop there? It’s unlikely… Because Baku has another demand: to obtain access to its territory in Nakhichevan, via the “Zanguezur corridor”, which would cut the Armenian region of Syunik in two. Ankara would welcome this, as it would link Turkey and Azerbaijan to Central Asia, cut Armenia off from its Iranian ally and give it access to zinc, copper and molybdenum deposits.
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>Despite being a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation [CSTO], Armenia finds itself isolated… and unlikely to be able to oppose Azerbaijan’s plans.
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>On the same day, President Macron stated that France is “very vigilant today about the territorial integrity of Armenia”. This came after he had repeatedly expressed Paris’s support for Yerevan. However, actions have not followed speeches… Will it be different this time?
>
>At face value, and with all due respect, France is moving towards a sort of “reckless pedestrian” strategy [crossing the road without looking, forcing drivers to brake].
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>On 26 September, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was meeting Mr Aliyev in Nakhichevan, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told the National Assembly that “France will take the necessary initiatives in the coming days, whether at national level, bilaterally with Armenia, at the United Nations, as a permanent member of the Security Council or within the European Union”.
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>”No country helps Armenia more than France. […] This is true at the diplomatic level: all the meetings of the United Nations Security Council devoted to this subject, all without exception, have been held at France’s initiative. Furthermore, […] it is also at our country’s initiative that an observation mission is being deployed in Armenia”, the minister continued, before insisting on the humanitarian aid being provided to the “Armenian populations of Nagorno-Karabakh”.
>
>He added, in response to MP Emmanuelle Anthoine [LR]: “Since you are asking us for action, you should know that we have also strengthened our defence relationship with Armenia. There will be a defence attaché at the French embassy in Yerevan” and “we will shortly be opening a consular office in the Syunik region, near the border”.
>
>Finally, Mme Colonna accused Russia of complicity in the “military operations undertaken by Azerbaijan”. In her view, this makes “international diplomatic action all the more necessary”. As for the EU, it must “act with us to ensure respect for the territorial integrity of Armenia and preserve the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to live, if they so wish, in accordance with their historical rights”, she concluded.
1 comment
>According to the French Treasury, Azerbaijan has the world’s 25th largest proven gas reserves and an annual production capacity of around 36 billion cubic metres per year [or at least that was the figure put forward in 2019]. This has enabled it to export 11.6 billion cubic metres, 79% of which to Turkey. And by 2020, the plan was to increase production to 54 billion cubic metres a year by exploiting the Absheron and Umid-Babek fields.
>
>”However, the increase in domestic consumption [11.5 billion m3 in 2019, +8.7%) is creating pressure on the volumes of Azerbaijani gas that can be exported. In 2017, the country even signed an import contract with [Russian group] Gazprom to cover its needs. The government therefore intends to pursue a policy of intensive extraction, with volumes extracted from the Shah Deniz field set to increase by 13% in 2020″, noted the French Treasury.
>
>That said, with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions it has imposed on Russia, the European Union [EU] is seeking to diversify its sources of natural gas supplies. So it has turned to Azerbaijan.
>
>In July 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Baku to sign an agreement committing Azerbaijan to exporting 20 billion cubic metres of gas to the EU by 2027. Other energy projects were also put on the table, notably in the field of renewable energies [hydrogen, solar], with the promise of investment, including €60 million from European funds.
>
>And on this occasion, Mrs von der Leyen described Azerbaijan as a “reliable and trustworthy partner”… despite its threats to use force to force Nagorno-Karabakh – populated mainly by Armenians – back into its fold and to settle other territorial disputes with Armenia.
>
>So when Baku ‘strangled’ Nagorno-Karabakh [or the Republic of Artsakh] by closing the Latchine corridor, its only route to Armenia, the EU looked the other way… But it was not alone…
>
>As guarantor of the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020 to put an end to an offensive launched a few weeks earlier by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia let it happen. Just as it was passive when, on 19 September, Baku carried out a lightning military operation to seize this territory without a fight.
>
>Since then, the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliev, has been at pains to assure us that the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will be guaranteed… Out of a population of 150,000, more than 50,000 have already taken refuge in Armenia. And there’s more to come.
>
>Now that he has regained control of a territory that was “given” to him by Stalin in the days of the Soviet Union, will President Aliyev stop there? It’s unlikely… Because Baku has another demand: to obtain access to its territory in Nakhichevan, via the “Zanguezur corridor”, which would cut the Armenian region of Syunik in two. Ankara would welcome this, as it would link Turkey and Azerbaijan to Central Asia, cut Armenia off from its Iranian ally and give it access to zinc, copper and molybdenum deposits.
>
>Despite being a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation [CSTO], Armenia finds itself isolated… and unlikely to be able to oppose Azerbaijan’s plans.
>
>On the same day, President Macron stated that France is “very vigilant today about the territorial integrity of Armenia”. This came after he had repeatedly expressed Paris’s support for Yerevan. However, actions have not followed speeches… Will it be different this time?
>
>At face value, and with all due respect, France is moving towards a sort of “reckless pedestrian” strategy [crossing the road without looking, forcing drivers to brake].
>
>On 26 September, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was meeting Mr Aliyev in Nakhichevan, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told the National Assembly that “France will take the necessary initiatives in the coming days, whether at national level, bilaterally with Armenia, at the United Nations, as a permanent member of the Security Council or within the European Union”.
>
>”No country helps Armenia more than France. […] This is true at the diplomatic level: all the meetings of the United Nations Security Council devoted to this subject, all without exception, have been held at France’s initiative. Furthermore, […] it is also at our country’s initiative that an observation mission is being deployed in Armenia”, the minister continued, before insisting on the humanitarian aid being provided to the “Armenian populations of Nagorno-Karabakh”.
>
>He added, in response to MP Emmanuelle Anthoine [LR]: “Since you are asking us for action, you should know that we have also strengthened our defence relationship with Armenia. There will be a defence attaché at the French embassy in Yerevan” and “we will shortly be opening a consular office in the Syunik region, near the border”.
>
>Finally, Mme Colonna accused Russia of complicity in the “military operations undertaken by Azerbaijan”. In her view, this makes “international diplomatic action all the more necessary”. As for the EU, it must “act with us to ensure respect for the territorial integrity of Armenia and preserve the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to live, if they so wish, in accordance with their historical rights”, she concluded.